Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 11:31 AM   Moonset 12:36 AM

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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1001 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Rest of today - S winds 15 to 20 kt. NEar shore, seas 2 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft. Well offshore, seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S se 3 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Tonight - S se winds 10 to 15 kt near shore - . Except S 10 to 15 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: S se 2 ft at 3 seconds and sw 2 ft at 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore - .except sw 10 to 15 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: S sw 2 ft at 7 seconds and S sw 1 foot at 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Wave detail: W sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers late in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight. Thu - W sw winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore - .except W sw 5 to 10 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: W sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers. Thu night - W nw winds 5 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. Fri and Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Sat - S sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.

GMZ600 1007 Am Cdt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis - Light to moderate southwesterly winds - .occasionally stronger well offshore - .become west to northwest tonight. A light northerly flow develops Wednesday night then becomes southerly on Thursday. A moderate southerly flow is expected on Friday, then a light to moderate southwesterly flow follows for Saturday.

FXUS62 KMFL 141152 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 752 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A mid-level disturbance developing over the Midwestern United States is producing perturbations that move from the western Gulf into the peninsula of Florida through a portion of the short term. The warm front will continue its retreat northward allowing for the region to remain in this hot and unsettled pattern through mid-week.

While the more widespread convective focus may remain north of southern Florida, sea breeze collisions will spur late afternoon/evening storms that could be stout with some strong to severe storms not out of the question due to cold air aloft and surface-based instability which could at times overcome whatever inhibition could remain. 500 mb temperatures will remain in the -10 to -8 deg C range through a good portion of the period and when favorable lapse rates materialize within the hail growth zone, there could be storms capable of producing large hail, frequent to excessive lightning, and locally damaging wind gusts. The localized threat of tornadic activity, such as funnel clouds, around boundary collisions is also something to be monitored.

Outside of the storms, temperatures will continue to be stifling with a warming trend underway. Heat index values will top the triple digits with the potential for Heat Advisories becoming necessary as early as Wednesday. As the mid-level low travels eastward, the surface cold front will move across the panhandle and enter the peninsula of Florida on Wednesday.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A frontal boundary could enter south central Florida by Thursday, briefly allowing a window for some increased rain chances but the weak front lacks the support for more widespread activity which could provide more substantial relief from the heat. Temperatures aloft will cool to around -9 to -10C on Wednesday into Thursday which could support an isolated strong storm or two.

The main story through this forecast period will be the potential for hazardous heat which will linger into the weekend. Most of South Florida could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat Advisory through Saturday and this potential will be monitored through the week. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s area- wide each afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for coastal areas with portions of interior South Florida potentially approaching the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro mid to late week could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s. This could lead to a period of several days where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.

By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat.
If the front stalls to the north, the excessive heat risk could linger through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 750 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SErly winds will remain around 10-15kts this morning, becoming more southerly with gusts around 25kts once again during the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A southeasterly to southerly wind flow will become southwesterly as the next cold front approaches on Wednesday. Afternoon and evening sea breeze storms will still be possible, with a focus around Lake Okeechobee. Temperatures will be unseasonably hot though the breeze could offer some relief in the shade.

BEACHES
Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

The wind flow will become more southerly to southwesterly today into Wednesday. Due to the combination of low tide time this morning and the last several days of the persistent southeast winds, the high risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches will continue through at least this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 91 80 95 80 / 10 10 30 20 West Kendall 93 78 97 76 / 10 0 20 20 Opa-Locka 93 79 97 78 / 10 10 30 20 Homestead 91 79 95 78 / 10 10 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 90 80 94 79 / 20 10 40 30 N Ft Lauderdale 91 80 95 79 / 20 10 40 20 Pembroke Pines 95 80 99 79 / 10 10 30 20 West Palm Beach 92 78 96 76 / 30 10 50 30 Boca Raton 92 79 97 78 / 20 10 40 30 Naples 92 79 91 78 / 0 10 30 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...None.

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Round Key
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Tue -- 12:47 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:37 AM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:37 AM EDT     1.90 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:02 PM EDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Round Key, Florida, Tide feet

Cape Romano
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Tue -- 12:39 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:26 AM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:29 AM EDT     2.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:51 PM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Romano, Florida, Tide feet

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