Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Everglades, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 7:14PM Thursday October 1, 2020 11:36 AM EDT (15:36 UTC) Moonrise 6:27PMMoonset 6:00AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 937 Am Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
Rest of today..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots nearshore and northeast 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of Thunderstorms late in the evening. Showers likely through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and northeast 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers likely. Chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots nearshore and northeast 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely.
Saturday..Winds east northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots nearshore and east around 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots offshore. Seas less than 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 3 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East southeast winds around 10 knots nearshore and east southeast 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers likely
Thunderstorms likely
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Offshore, gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely late in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 943 Am Cdt Thu Oct 1 2020
Synopsis..A light offshore flow generally prevails through Thursday afternoon. A reinforcing cold front will bring small craft advisory conditions to the coastal waters with exercise caution in our nearshore bays Thursday night through Friday morning. Light to moderate north-northeasterly winds will continue through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Everglades, FL
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location: 25.86, -81.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 011225 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 825 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

Aviation (12Z TAFs).

A stalled stationary boundary across the region will keep deep moisture and enhanced rain and storm chances in place. Confidence in the timing and coverage of convection for today remains low at this time, though coverage should increase after 18Z. Anticipate MVFR to locally IFR cigs/vis in any heavy downpours this afternoon and evening.

Prev Discussion. /issued 347 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020/

.Flooding Possible Into This Weekend.

Short Term .

Today .

A coastal trough has set up over the east coastal metro areas early this morning. This has allowed for a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop over the metro areas of Palm Beach County early this morning. There was also showers and thunderstorm developing over the coastal areas of Miami-Dade and southern coastal areas of Broward County. These showers and thunderstorms should continue over the metro area of Palm Beach County though rest of the early morning hours and fill in over rest of the coastal areas of Broward and Miami-Dade Counties through rest of the early morning hours. Heavy rainfall is expected from these showers and thunderstorms as the satellite images are showing the PWAT values are around 2.1 to 2.3 inches which is near the maximum values for this time of year.

The coastal trough should dissipate through the morning hours, as the surface winds become more northeast. However, showers and thunderstorms will continue over South Florida today as the stationary front remains over the southern areas of South Florida keeping the PWAT values in the 2 to 2.3 inch range. The mid to upper level trough will also remain over the eastern areas of the United States today keeping the steering flow in the south to southwest direction. Therefore, there could still be training of showers and thunderstorms today over the region especially over the eastern areas with heavy rainfall that could lead to some flooding especially over the east coastal areas where it is currently raining.

Long Term .

Tonight through Sunday .

A highly meridional flow pattern will evolve across North America featuring western U.S. ridging and mean eastern troughing. The upper trough will gradually propagate into the Atlantic coastal states, with mid-upper ridging shunted towards the eastern Bahamas in response to the digging wave. A stationary frontal zone should extend from the Yucatan Peninsula into far southern Florida early in the period, with a tendency to slowly drift poleward with time. Deep moisture will reside along the frontal boundary, with east-northeast low-level flow enhancing boundary layer convergence along the Atlantic coastal areas. Several parameters are favorable for a heavy rain event, including tall skinny CAPE profiles, deep warm cloud depths, and precipitable water values exceeding 2.2 inches. Warm rain processes are therefore expected with rain rates potentially exceeding 2-4 inches per hour. Street and urban flooding is probable in this environment. However, an additional concern is the potential for localized training/backbuilding of thunderstorm clusters given the anticipated frontal upglide/coastal convergence. This may bring a flash flooding risk as well should this scenario occur. There is currently low confidence in placing the greatest flash flooding threat, as this depends on mesoscale details not yet elucidated. However this setup suggests the Atlantic coastal portions of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade Counties would be most vulnerable. An aggravating factor is the high astronomical tides, and the potential amplification of any flood event should heavy rainfall coincide with a high tide cycle. A reasonable worst case scenario for total rain amounts is 4-6 inches along the Atlantic coastal/metro areas, tapering off to 2-3 inches for the interior, Gulf Coast, and Lake Okeechobee regions. As always, isolated higher totals are possible. Given this potential, a Flood Watch was issued for the Atlantic coastal and metro areas through this weekend.

Monday through Wednesday .

A progressive flow pattern remains across the CONUS, as shortwave perturbations progress through the mean eastern trough. The aforementioned frontal zone should remain stalled in our vicinity keeping rain/thunderstorm chances above the climatological mean. The evolution of a low pressure system over the northwest Caribbean Sea could also enhance deep moisture across our area depending upon its development (or lack thereof). Regardless of whether tropical development evolves, localized heavy rain and flooding may remain a concern with the front sticking around. This is especially true if a heavy rain event evolves across some portion of our area over the weekend. Keep up with forecast changes.

Marine .

A cold front across the region will continue to bring northerly or northeasterly winds through the remainder of the workweek before a more easterly transition takes shape this weekend. Outside of the potential for scattered showers and storms, wind and seas should remain somewhat favorable through Friday. On Saturday pressure gradient begins to increase, especially over the Gulf waters as a surface low develops across the western Caribbean.

Hydrology .

Total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are possible into this weekend with isolated higher amounts. This may lead to flooding and/or flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Sunday for the Atlantic metro and coastal areas.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 86 74 85 74 / 60 60 60 30 Fort Lauderdale 89 76 86 76 / 60 70 70 50 Miami 89 76 86 76 / 60 60 70 60 Naples 88 73 84 71 / 50 50 50 40

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . Flood Watch through Sunday evening for FLZ068-072-074-168-172- 173.

AM . None. GM . None.

Aviation . 18/Weinman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 13 mi96 min 83°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 15 mi96 min 85°F
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 21 mi111 min E 7 76°F 1016 hPa72°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 26 mi96 min 82°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 29 mi48 min 84°F
BDVF1 - Broad River, FL 34 mi96 min 84°F
HREF1 35 mi96 min 83°F
CANF1 - Cane Patch, FL 38 mi96 min 84°F
GBIF1 - Gunboat Island, FL 38 mi96 min 82°F
SREF1 38 mi96 min 85°F
TPEF1 - Tarpon Bay East, FL 38 mi156 min 83°F
CWAF1 44 mi156 min 84°F
NRRF1 44 mi96 min 85°F
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 46 mi102 min NNE 11 G 12 76°F
LRIF1 48 mi96 min 86°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL28 mi43 minE 710.00 miFair80°F73°F82%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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NW6CalmNW6CalmE3CalmCalmCalmN4NE5NE7NE7N8NE10
2 days agoSW6W8W9W9W8W11W8W4NE4NE5NE7E5NE4E3E3SE4CalmSE4SE4SE5E3SE7SE7S11

Tide / Current Tables for Everglades City, Barron River, Florida
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Everglades City
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:56 AM EDT     2.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:55 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:14 PM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:16 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.32.12.832.82.41.91.30.80.40.30.61.22.12.83.23.12.82.21.610.60.40.5

Tide / Current Tables for Indian Key, Florida
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Indian Key
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:28 AM EDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:49 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:46 PM EDT     4.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:10 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.94.44.43.93.12.21.30.80.711.82.93.94.64.74.43.62.71.710.70.91.62.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current



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