Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Biscayne Park, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 5:31PM Sunday December 8, 2019 10:19 PM EST (03:19 UTC) Moonrise 3:17PMMoonset 3:27AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Expires:201912091515;;065791 Fzus52 Kmfl 090209 Cwfmfl Coastal Waters Forecast For South Florida National Weather Service Miami Fl 909 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Out To 60 Nm And Gulf Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Out 20 Nm And Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Out 60 Nm...including The Waters Of Biscayne Bay And Lake Okeechobee. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves. Amz650-651-670-671-091515- Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 909 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Rest of tonight..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Monday..East southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of sprinkles in the afternoon.
Monday night..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of light showers.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of light showers.
Thursday night and Friday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet along the coast and 5 to 7 feet with occasional to 10 feet in the gulf stream. North northeast swell 4 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of light showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 909 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis..High pressure ridge will remain north of the south florida waters through the week with east to southeast winds that could become breezy at times particularly across the atlantic waters. Marine conditions are forecast to deteriorate late in the week as strong ridge of high pressure off the east coast generates swells that are forecast to start impacting the atlantic waters by Friday.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas are forecast to build above 7 feet particularly across the palm beach gulf stream waters by late this week. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 07, 2019 at 1200 utc... 9 nautical miles east of fowey rocks. 17 nautical miles east of port everglades. 15 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 17 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Biscayne Park, FL
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location: 25.88, -80.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 090151 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 851 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

Update. No significant changes to this evenings forecast update. Showers over Collier County are moving offshore and beginning to dissipate. Elsewhere, there is no significant weather, and conditions should be quiet for the remainder of the night. Skies are clearing, with the exception of a line coming into Broward County. This line may persist for a while, and could potentially produce a few sprinkles, but confidence is too low to mention in the forecast at this time.

Prev Discussion. /issued 620 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019/

Aviation . A few SHRA a moving off the Gulf coast this evening, afterwards, the weather should be mostly quiet through the night. Tomorrow, additional -SHRA are possible, but very uncertain as to timing and location, so no mention in TAF. Otherwise, no significant weather through the TAF period.

Update . The last bit of shower activity is moving through the Naples area this evening. With the loss of daytime heating, the area should be stabilizing and the weather should be quiet for the remainder of the night. The models are indicating there could be another round of light showers/sprinkles tomorrow, similar to today. Otherwise, no significant change to the forecast with this update.

Prev Discussion . /issued 249 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019/

Short Term .

The NWS Miami County Warning Area remains along the southern rim of a broad surface ridge -- centered well north of the forecast area across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region. The reinforcement of this surface ridge by midlevel subsidence -- upstream of a migratory wave -- has resulted in a peripheral, modest frontogenetic response across South Florida. Related ascent continues to phase with shallow low-level moisture in support of isolated westward- moving sprinkles this afternoon.

The mesoscale environment in proximity to the ongoing very light precipitation is similar to that across the remainder of South Florida. And, with the continued progression of very modest low- level ascent, the potential for isolated sprinkles may spread across the remainder of the region through late afternoon into the evening. Without stronger or deeper ascent, and without richer tropospheric moisture, measurable precipitation is highly unlikely. Nevertheless, a slight chance for sprinkles continues to be expanded across the forecast area through this evening.

Otherwise, easterly low-level flow will persist through tonight, with wind speeds decreasing over land in response to nocturnal decoupling. However, the decoupling process may be muted to some extent by mid/high-level cloud coverage, which will also restrict the magnitude of outgoing longwave radiation from the surface layer. This will create less-than-favorable conditions for fog development, though spotty/brief fog cannot be ruled out late tonight into early Monday morning over interior sections.

Through the day on Monday, low-level flow is forecast to turn more southeasterly, as the aforementioned surface ridge slowly shifts eastward over the open Atlantic waters, and surface cyclogenesis takes place over parts of the central CONUS downstream of a mobile midlevel trough. While these low-level mass responses should principally remain displaced well away from the local area, their peripheral influence over South Florida will be the aforementioned slight increase in the meridional component of low- level flow, and this should encourage an influx of richer low- level moisture.

Present indications are that the more notable increase in moisture should be focused later Monday into Monday night, accompanied by an increase in cloud coverage. By Monday afternoon and especially into Monday night, very light precipitation could develop -- principally focused over the east coast metro areas and vicinity. Given the lack of stronger low-level or deep ascent, and since richer moisture return should only exist within its onset phase through Monday night, measurable precipitation is unlikely. However, slight chances for sprinkles have been included -- especially over the eastern forecast area for Monday afternoon and night.

Very modest warm advection accompanying the increasing meridional low-level flow on Monday should foster comparatively warmer high temperatures -- i.e., into the lower and middle 80s. However, these forecast temperatures are accompanied by some uncertainty -- owing to the potential for cloud coverage.

Long Term . Tuesday begins with a 500mb ridge over the region, and a surface high over the western Atlantic. The 500mb ridge is be quashed to the south by a strong trough that is well to the north, over the Hudson Bay. At the surface, a low pressure system , north of Maine, has a cold front that sits along the northern periphery of the aforementioned surface high. This front stalls just off the eastern sea board, extending back to the west southwest, towards the central Texas Gulf coast. This creates a baroclinic zone that will come into play later in the week. However, for the time being, it keeps South Florida under a warm, fairly moist air mass, with PWATs sitting between 1 and 1.5 inches for the week. Fortunately, there is an overall lack of dynamic forcing over the region for most of the week. This may allow the area to return to a sea breeze influenced pattern by Wednesday, and possibly Thursday. This would allow for some shower activity over the area. The 500mb ridge should help to restrict any convective activity to just showers Wednesday and Thursday.

By Thursday, a 500mb shortwave crosses over the Southwest US, and emerges over the high plains of Texas. As it does, it closes off and deepens fairly quickly. The GFS and the ECMWF both show this, but differ on the location of the low, with the ECMWF much further south, over Mexico. Either way, as the low progresses eastward, it begins to interact with the baroclinic zone that was previously mentioned. This causes cyclogenesis over the north central Gulf. This new low will also be reinforced by a trough at 250mb, which shows a strong jet moving into the western US on Thursday, and quickly moving east through the end of the week. This jet and a 250mb trough, help to cause the 500mb trough to deepen for the end of the week. On the eastern side of this upper level trough, there is indication in the models of a much weaker subtropical jet merging with the polar jet. As it does, there is a weak, around 70kt jet that moves over Central Florida on Friday. This could bring the potential for some heavier showers, or maybe a few thunderstorms. Given the proximity to the CWA, and any shift to the south, a slight chance of thunderstorms is being introduced to the Lake region for Friday afternoon. With the axis of the mid and upper level troughs swinging through the area on Saturday, this may prompt future forecasts to include the mention of thunderstorms for Saturday as well.

Models show the cold front moving across the CWA Saturday night into Sunday. This could bring a line of showers ahead of the front. However, most of the stronger dynamics look to remain north of the area at this time. So, going along with the national Blend, have kept thunderstorms out of the forecast for the frontal passage. By Sunday the front should be east of the area. With the origin of the system being so far south, and the 500mb trough not having a high amplitude associated with it, there is no significant impact to the temperatures, and just a slight reduction in the dew points in the air mass that moves in behind the front.

So over all, a somewhat warmer and wetter pattern for the middle and end of the week, with a weak frontal passage over the weekend, with only a somewhat drier air mass replacing the air mass ahead of the front. A few thunderstorms may be possible in the Lake region on Friday afternoon, and may need to be introduced with the frontal passage late Saturday.

Marine .

Over the South Florida waters, east winds will continue to turn more southeasterly for the remainder of today into Monday, and will become breezy. Seas will build to 3-5 feet over the Atlantic waters through Monday -- with locally higher seas possible over the Gulf Stream. Isolated sprinkles will be possible at times through Monday night. Thereafter, through middle to latter parts of this week, the approach of a weather system from the west will correspond to a gradual increase in east to southeast winds. Deteriorating marine conditions could materialize by mid to late week, as winds and waves increase, while shower activity also has the potential to increase.

Beach Forecast .

The potential for sprinkles will persist for the Miami-Dade and Broward County beaches through this afternoon, with sprinkles possible over the east coast beaches Monday afternoon into Monday night. The increased onshore-flow component today for Palm Beach County warranted the introduction of a moderate rip current risk for the Palm Beach County beaches. For early to middle parts of this week, additional increases in onshore flow could foster increasing rip-current risk for all Atlantic beaches. Shower chances will also increase through the mid/late-week time frame.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 66 80 69 82 / 0 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 69 80 72 82 / 0 10 20 10 Miami 68 81 71 83 / 0 10 20 10 Naples 62 81 66 83 / 20 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Update . 13 Marine . 90/Cohen Aviation . 13 Beach Forecast . 90/Cohen Short Term . 90/Cohen Long Term . 13


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 10 mi55 min E 9.9 G 14 76°F 76°F1020.2 hPa
PEGF1 14 mi55 min E 13 G 16 76°F 1020.6 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 20 mi19 min E 16 G 17 75°F 77°F1020.5 hPa (+0.3)
MDKF1 43 mi79 min 73°F
HCEF1 - Highway Creek, FL 46 mi79 min 74°F
LSNF1 - Long Sound, FL 47 mi79 min 74°F
LBSF1 - Little Blackwater, FL 48 mi139 min 72°F
THRF1 48 mi139 min 72°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL7 mi26 minESE 610.00 miFair71°F61°F71%1020.7 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL8 mi26 minE 610.00 miA Few Clouds73°F60°F64%1020.5 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL9 mi26 minESE 510.00 miFair72°F61°F68%1020.8 hPa
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL13 mi26 minE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F62°F67%1020 hPa
Miami, Kendall-Tamiami Executive Airport, FL21 mi26 minE 410.00 miFair67°F64°F93%1020.4 hPa
Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, FL22 mi26 minE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F61°F64%1020.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOPF

Wind History from OPF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NW3CalmN3CalmN3CalmCalmN4Calm3E7E5E11E8E10E10E10E12E7E7E7E5SE6
1 day agoCalmW5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmN3N7N5N6NW4CalmNE64E9E7E3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN6N5CalmCalmN6N5N4N4N4N3N5N34SE7SE7SE7SE7SE7SE7SE5CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Indian Creek Golf Club, ICWW, Florida
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Indian Creek Golf Club
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Sun -- 12:48 AM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:27 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:56 AM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:15 PM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:58 PM EST     2.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.40.50.91.41.92.22.32.21.91.510.70.60.60.91.31.82.12.22.11.81.40.9

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
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Sun -- 12:23 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:27 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:11 AM EST     1.69 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:53 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:52 AM EST     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:53 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:28 PM EST     1.43 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:53 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:55 PM EST     -1.23 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.40.61.41.61.71.50.8-0.1-0.6-0.9-1-1.1-0.80.111.31.41.40.8-0.1-0.8-1.1-1.2-1.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.