Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Villa Pancho, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 8:00PM Friday August 23, 2019 5:09 PM CDT (22:09 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:01PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 406 Pm Cdt Fri Aug 23 2019
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms mainly after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay building to choppy in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay subsiding to a moderate chop after midnight.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 406 Pm Cdt Fri Aug 23 2019
Synopsis..The combination of nearly stationary high pressure over the central gulf with a persistent thermal trough from west texas through the sierra madre will maintain light to moderate winds and moderate seas through Tuesday. The high may drift into the western gulf Wednesday and Wednesday night, with diminishing winds possible. Isolated to scattered Thunderstorms are expected at times, most likely through Saturday and associated with a weak upper level disturbance.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Villa Pancho, TX
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location: 25.88, -97.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 232006
afdbro
area forecast discussion
national weather service brownsville tx
306 pm cdt Fri aug 23 2019
.Short term (now through Saturday night): the weather pattern
remains mostly unchanged today as it has been the last day or two. A
persistent weak, relative 500mb trough low will continue to result
in periods of convection off the lower to middle texas coast.

Inland, we are relying mostly on diurnally-driven seabreeze
convection, which has been underperforming so far this afternoon. Do
see the usual CU build-up with a few cells developing, but most
locations will certainly remain dry today. As we head into the
overnight hours, weather conditions will be quiet with a few showers
possible across the upper rgv and across the far offshore gulf
waters. On Saturday, expect convection to increase in coverage again
towards sunrise offshore with another seabreeze possible late
morning and afternoon. Despite this disturbance just offshore, mid to
upper level heights remain high, keeping temperatures hot and above
normal in some locations. Models hint at a possible vort MAX coming
off the higher terrain of mexico Saturday night, which would likely
spark off some convection as light SE flow converges upslope. Have
maintained 20% pop across the upper rgv for now with uncertainty of
any eastward progression through the night.

.Long term (Sunday through Friday): latest mid-range and long-
range forecast models are in better agreement today on the upper-
level pattern across deep south texas. Sunday will feature an
elongated upper-level ridge, centered over northern california,
stretching across much of the desert southwest and into western
texas. A shortwave trough will sweep across the southern plains,
with its axis progressing eastward across texas and over the
western gulf by late Sunday night. The past couple of runs
(including the latest 12z run) from the operational GFS model are
more inline with what the ECMWF model has been suggesting over the
past few days – hot and mostly dry. Having said that, looks
like there is a shot of precipitation convection on Sunday
afternoon early evening associated with a combination of the
afternoon sea breeze and slight spike in mid-level vorticity,
before the trough axis slides east of the area. Will keep 30% pops
in the forecast for the majority of the area, with best chances
being west of us 281 i69c.

Once the trough axis pushes east of the region (beginning on
Monday), latest ECMWF and GFS are in good agreement that a mid-
level ridge will build in over the desert southwest, affecting
much of western, central, and southern texas. The ECMWF has a
slightly stronger ridge building in compared to the gfs, but
none-the-less temperatures look to remain above seasonal average
across deep south texas through the long term, with mostly rain-
free conditions. Did keep 20% pops, mainly along and east of us
281 i69c, during the afternoon hours through the remainder of the
week, with sea breeze convection possible.

.Marine (now through Saturday night): the main concern in this
period will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms offshore,
resulting from deep moisture and a weak mid-level disturbance across
the western gulf of mexico. Any storms that develop will be capable
of producing locally higher winds, seas and an isolated waterspout,
especially in the morning hours. A fairly weak pressure gradient at
the surface will otherwise maintain light to moderate winds and low
seas, which will gradually build to moderate through the short term.

It is possible to see some winds at 15 to 20 knots across the bay
waters on Saturday, but do not anticipate any advisories.

(Sunday through Friday): no major changes were made to the marine
forecast in the long term. Weak to moderate surface pressure
gradient will lead to moderate south southeasterly flow and
moderate seas through the period. Small craft exercise caution
conditions may be needed across the bay each afternoon evening,
possibly across the near-shore waters, as well. Showers and
thunderstorms continue to be possible each day with ample
environmental moisture over the western gulf waters.

Preliminary point temps pops
Bayview port isabel 80 94 80 94 20 20 20 30
brownsville 80 96 81 96 20 20 20 30
harlingen 79 98 80 99 10 20 10 30
mcallen 81 102 81 101 10 20 10 30
rio grande city 80 102 81 101 10 10 10 30
south padre island 82 86 82 87 20 20 20 30

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
short term... Birchfield-65
long term... Mejia-67


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 20 mi57 min ESE 14 G 17 86°F 85°F1010 hPa
BZST2 23 mi57 min ESE 8 G 9.9 83°F 81°F1009.5 hPa
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 23 mi57 min ESE 11 G 13 85°F 1010.5 hPa
RLIT2 29 mi57 min ESE 15 G 18 87°F 91°F1009.1 hPa
PMNT2 47 mi57 min 87°F 91°F1009.9 hPa

Wind History for Port Isabel, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brownsville, Brownsville / South Padre Island International Airport, TX5 mi76 minESE 16 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy97°F77°F53%1009.1 hPa
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX22 mi76 minESE 1710.00 miFair91°F77°F64%1009.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBRO

Wind History from BRO (wind in knots)
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SE13E11SE7SE9SE11SE11S10SE7S6SE4SE5SE6CalmS5SW5S8SE9SE11
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1 day agoE15E12E14E8E8E7SE6SE6SE5SE5S3S3S3S3SE3S7S6S8SE6S7S7E11E11
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Tide / Current Tables for Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico
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Matamoros
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:00 AM CDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:30 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:56 AM CDT     1.54 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:33 AM CDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:58 AM CDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 02:00 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:41 PM CDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:58 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.61.51.51.51.61.61.61.51.51.41.210.90.70.60.60.70.80.91.11.31.51.6

Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas
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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:29 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:06 AM CDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:58 AM CDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:59 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:51 PM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:57 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.110.90.80.60.40.30.20.20.20.30.50.70.811.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.