Sunday, September27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Golden Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:12PM Sunday September 27, 2020 11:46 AM EDT (15:46 UTC) Moonrise 4:06PMMoonset 2:17AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 939 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Rest of today..East southeast winds 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Intracoastal waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Tonight..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north northeast in the evening. Gusts up to 20 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely.
Wednesday night and Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 939 Am Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Synopsis.. High pressure aloft is forecast to keep a light wind over the area, with showers and Thunderstorms possible through the beginning of the week. By mid next week, a cold front moves into the area and stalls, keeping the chance for showers and Thunderstorms in the forecast through at least the remainder of the week.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of sep 26, 2020 at 1200 utc... 9 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 13 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 9 nautical miles northeast of lake worth. 7 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Golden Beach, FL
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location: 25.96, -79.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 271345 AAA AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 945 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Update. Forecast is on track with the focus for convection expected to remain inland from the coast this afternoon and potentially favoring the west coast metro by the evening. Cannot rule out some activity along retreating boundaries later today either on either coast. Forecast depicts this well, so no updates are anticipated through midday at this point. Have a wonderful Sunday morning!

Prev Discussion. /issued 747 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020/

Aviation . Light easterly flow with sea breezes expected again today. Convection will focus along the sea breezes this afternoon and evening, generally over inland areas though the terminals could be directly impacted by sub-VFR conditions from nearby convection. APF appears to have the highest potential for TSRA. Short-fused amendments will likely be necessary IFR/LIFR this afternoon and evening.

Prev Discussion . /issued 328 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020/

HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

Short Term . Today through Monday .

A 500mb ridge is over the area today. The surface has no significant pressure system in the area, but the overall low level flow should favor an easterly direction as there is a sfc high well to the northeast of Bermuda. This really allows the weather to be dominated by the sea breeze once again. However, with even a light easterly flow, it looks to be enough to enhance the Atlantic sea breeze enough to push most of the active weather to the interior and along the Gulf coast today. however, once again can not rule out some outflow boundaries pushing some of the convection back to the eastern portion of the CWA. PWATS are still forecast to run around 2 inches or more, with the western half of the area seeing the highest PWATs at around 2.3 inches. looking at 700mb omegas, there is some strong lift in Collier County through around 21z. However, that lift does look to shift eastward, towards the center of the state by 00z Monday. however, 500mb does not show any strong Omega values in the same area. so we could have cores that remain low level today. Looking at the BUFKIT soundings, the NCAPE is less than .2, indicating weak vertical velocities across the area this afternoon. So, once again, the main threat will be heavy rain causing flooding, if it occurs over any metro areas. mbE velocities are very low across the area, indicating any convection that forms will be nearly stationary. Looking at the wind streamlines across the area for the day, they confirm some strong convergence over Collier County today and low level divergence over Broward County. Going up to 700mb, they show some decent divergence. There may be some weak divergence in the 500mb wind field over Collier as well. 500mb temperatures are forecast to be around -6C to -6.5C according to the GFS over the CWA today. This could help to allow for some moderate downbursts today.

Tomorrow, the GFS is showing PWATs jump to almost 2.5 inches over the interior by the afternoon hours. The best 700mb omega values are in the interior as well. Aloft, the 500mb ridge is being broken down by a trough moving into the area. This should help to enhance some of the instability over the area. The 500mb temps remain around -6C tomorrow, before the air mass warms a touch to near -5.5C. So, PoPs are still high for Monday, with the potential for some general to somewhat strong thunderstorms Monday afternoon.

Overall, the next couple of days look to have the potential for areas of showers with some thunderstorms affecting mainly the interior areas. But, can not rule out any impacts for the coastal areas, especially the Gulf coast.

Long Term . Monday Night Through Next Weekend .

The trough of low pressure will deepen Tuesday into Wednesday, as the trough moves eastward into the Eastern United States from the Central United States. This will allow for low pressure to develop over the Southeastern United states and move northeast up the eastern coast of the United States. This in turn will allow for a cold front to move southward down the Florida Peninsula and into South Florida. Therefore, the showers and thunderstorms will be on an increase across the region with the best coverage over the interior and east coast metro areas for middle of this week.

The long range models are still showing the cold front to stall over South Florida late this week into next weekend allowing for the steering flow to be south southwest direction keeping the deep tropical moisture in place. This will keep the PWAT values in the 2 to 2.3 inch range which is near the maximum value for this time of year over South Florida. An east coast sea breeze could also develop and remain over the east coast metro areas due to the south southwest steering flow.

The combination of the deep tropical air mass, very high PWAT values and the east coast sea breeze remaining over the east coast metro areas late this week into next weekend will allow for scattered to numerous POPs along with the possibility of heavy rainfall. Stay tune through the week on the potential of for heavy rainfall late this week into next weekend.

Marine . Mostly quiet marine conditions for the first part of the week. The exception will be for any showers or thunderstorms that affect the local waters, which could bring some locally hazardous conditions. The hazards include frequent lightning, gusty wind, locally rough seas, and possible waterspouts.

A cold front is forecast to move into the area and stall somewhere over the area by the middle of the week. While this is not forecast to have any significant impact on the seas forecast, it will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the remainder of the week.

The rip current risk should remain low for at least the next several days.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 89 77 89 76 / 20 20 40 20 Fort Lauderdale 88 78 88 78 / 20 30 30 20 Miami 88 77 88 77 / 30 20 40 20 Naples 90 76 88 75 / 60 60 40 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Update . 02/RAG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PEGF1 25 mi46 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 85°F 1015.2 hPa (+1.0)
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 31 mi46 min ENE 5.1 G 6 83°F 85°F1015.6 hPa (+1.0)
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 34 mi46 min N 4.1 G 5.1 83°F 84°F1015.2 hPa (+0.8)
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 49 mi46 min E 4.1 G 6 85°F 85°F1014.7 hPa (+1.2)75°F

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL27 mi53 minENE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F78°F75%1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFLL

Wind History from FLL (wind in knots)
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W8E4SE4W11S4CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3E5
1 day agoSW7S7SW8S3SW4SE7S6S7S4S4S6S5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW4SW4SW3W5SW5SW8
2 days agoSE15SE15SE10E8E9SE7SE5E9E4E6SW8E3NE3CalmCalm--NE5N4CalmCalmS4S4S5SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Haulover Pier, North Miami Beach, Florida (2)
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Haulover Pier
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:41 AM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:59 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:19 PM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.711.41.92.42.82.82.62.21.610.70.50.71.11.72.32.832.92.62.11.51

Tide / Current Tables for Dumfoundling Bay, Florida
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Dumfoundling Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:51 AM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:24 AM EDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:10 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     2.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.90.811.31.72.12.32.32.11.81.410.70.60.711.522.42.52.42.21.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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