Wednesday, November25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Marco Island, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:36PM Wednesday November 25, 2020 6:11 AM EST (11:11 UTC) Moonrise 3:05PMMoonset 2:43AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 331 Am Est Wed Nov 25 2020
.small craft should exercise caution...
Today..East winds around 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of light showers in the morning. Slight chance of sprinkles in the afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 15 knots nearshore and east 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Friday night..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 343 Am Cst Wed Nov 25 2020
Synopsis..Moderate onshore flow and elevated seas continue across the gulf waters through this morning before subsiding late this afternoon and tonight. A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will then persist through the remainder of the week ahead of the next front that will sweep across the marine area late this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marco Island, FL
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location: 25.97, -81.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 250713 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 213 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020

. Atlantic High Rip Current Risk Continues . . Generally dry and mild Thanksgiving Day forecast .

Short Term (Today through Thanksgiving Day). Surface high pressure extending south across the eastern seaboard of the United States will keep a persistent easterly flow over South Florida through this week. Aloft, high pressure will remain over the region through late week. An approaching frontal boundary associated with a mid-level disturbance pushing through the central United States will be unable to advance past Central Florida due to the high pressure and the departing mid-level impulse pulling away to the northeast towards the Great Lakes region and northeastern United States.

For today, a low level impulse moving along the easterly flow around the ridge could allow for some isolated shower activity to persist over the Atlantic waters and eastern half of the peninsula in the morning, pushing westward in the late morning and early afternoon. Otherwise the pattern will remain fairly dry with just some isolated Atlantic showers possible. Temperatures will remain around seasonal averages, though portions of Southwest Florida could run a few degrees warmer in the afternoons due to the easterly flow allowing the air mass a chance to warm up as it traverses over the peninsula. Thanksgiving Day should generally be a dry day with temperatures reaching into the lower to mid 80s.

Long Term (Thanksgiving Night through Early Next Week). Benign, dry, and seasonal conditions for the bulk of the extended period as a dome of high pressure aloft engulfs the region which some of us are "thankful" for. With high pressure in firm control this week, model consensus continues to keep a cold front well to the north of our area Friday into Saturday. As the high slides eastward during this week, upper-level zonal flow across the region will be of westerly orientation. At the surface, easterly winds will prevail. As precipitable waters values during the first part of this week are within the 1.0 to 1.4 inches range, isolated sprinkles along the adjacent Atlantic waters and the east coast of South Florida cannot be ruled out. Anything that develops will be shallow and short-lived in nature. Throughout the remainder of the week, temperatures will remain near seasonal, with high temps in the low 80s and overnight temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Going towards the end of the weekend into early next week, there continues to be a little bit of amount of uncertainty with the forecast as long-term model guidance remains split, although not to the extreme as what it formally was. Both the GFS and ECMWF agree on a pretty strong FROPA early next week, though what they differ on is timing and intensity. However, recent guidance is starting to align on the overall placement of the associated parent low, but of course this can change (details below) .

1. The GFS takes a deep, amplified low across the SE CONUS before sliding northeastward towards the NE CONUS. Timing on FROPA is overnight Monday into Tuesday morning with dynamics aligning for perhaps strong storms to develop along with a clean sweep and decent CAA in its wake.

2. The ECMWF now hints at a low that looks to be stronger than previous model runs along with it tracking into the SE CONUS and eventually towards the NE CONUS (previous runs had the low skirting along the northern GOMEX). Timing has also nudged forward with an anticipated FROPA sometime Tuesday morning. The ECMWF also looks to make a clean sweep now with ample CAA in its wake but the dynamics aren't quite there yet to support strong storms like the GFS.

Despite the uncertainty involved with the end of the long-term period along with an anticipated FROPA, this portion of the forecast period will be important to monitor for potential weather impacts and changes in forecast. I think we can confidently say we will see a frontal passage early next week; however, there are a couple questions in play still . (1) how cold will the temps be behind the front, and (2) will there be strong to severe storms ahead of the boundary. With that said, handled PoPs and temperatures with a model blend.

Marine. The easing gradient should allow the wind speeds to drop below SCA this morning, though gusty breezes will continue creating the need for small craft to exercise caution over most of the unsheltered waters today. The next cold front late Monday into Tuesday could bring increasing wind and deteriorating marine conditions in its wake.

Beach Forecast. The persistent easterly flow and northeasterly swell will allow the elevated rip current risk to continue through the rest of the week along the Atlantic beaches. Have extended the Rip Current Statement through the evening on Thanksgiving to account for this, though the risk should start to gradually diminish heading into the weekend.

Prev Discussion. /issued 1217 AM EST Wed Nov 25 2020/

Aviation . Generally VFR, though some brief bouts of MVFR are possible with shallow Atlantic showers around the east coast terminals this morning. Easterly flow will remain gusty through Thursday. Isolated shower activity spurred by a perturbation moving westward could push inland and towards APF later this morning into the afternoon.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 81 70 82 69 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 81 72 82 71 / 10 10 10 0 Miami 82 71 83 70 / 20 10 10 0 Naples 83 66 84 66 / 10 10 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ630- 651-671.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for AMZ650-670.

GM . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ676.

Marine . 02/RAG Aviation . 02/RAG Beach Forecast . 02/RAG Short Term . 02/RAG Long Term . 03/Fell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 6 mi86 min E 5.1 68°F 1021 hPa64°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 12 mi53 min SE 5.1 G 8.9 70°F 74°F1021 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 30 mi131 min 75°F
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 31 mi77 min NE 8 G 9.9 70°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 33 mi131 min 75°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 41 mi131 min 75°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 44 mi131 min 74°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 48 mi53 min E 4.1 G 8 69°F 74°F1021.2 hPa

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL13 mi18 minENE 710.00 miFair67°F64°F91%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE7NE9NE13E13NE14E12--E13E10NE9NE7NE8NE6E6E6NE5NE5E6E6NE5NE6NE9NE7
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2 days agoNE5NE9NE6E7NE11E11NE7N6NE6N5S5SW5SW5CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN3N5NE5NE5N6

Tide / Current Tables for Marco, Big Marco River, Florida (2)
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Marco
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:43 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:57 AM EST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:22 AM EST     1.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:57 PM EST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:05 PM EST     2.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.10.80.60.50.60.81.11.41.71.91.81.71.41.10.80.80.91.11.41.71.92.12

Tide / Current Tables for Coon Key, Florida
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Coon Key
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:42 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:30 AM EST     0.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:41 AM EST     2.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:29 PM EST     0.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:24 PM EST     2.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.81.30.90.70.70.91.41.92.42.72.72.52.11.61.2111.31.72.22.732.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current



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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.