Sunday, June13, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Marco Island, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 8:21PM Sunday June 13, 2021 10:55 AM EDT (14:55 UTC) Moonrise 8:08AMMoonset 10:16PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 1004 Am Edt Sun Jun 13 2021
Rest of today..West southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..West southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers late in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.
Monday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and southwest 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers late in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..South winds around 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..South southwest winds around 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 919 Am Cdt Sun Jun 13 2021
Synopsis..A light to moderate westerly flow continues over the marine area into early this week as a very weak surface front remains oriented along the coast. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will develop each day through the middle of the week with the best coverage over the nearshore waters, bays, and sounds. A few storms could produce locally strong wind gusts, higher seas, frequent lighting, and locally heavy rain.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marco Island, FL
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location: 25.97, -81.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 131358 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 958 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

UPDATE. Showers and storms that have been ongoing this morning have generally been on the downward trend. A lingering shower into Miami-Dade along an outflow boundary and some showers along the west interior.

Another afternoon of showers and thunderstorms across South Florida, mainly for the east coast today. Hi-res models this morning continue to have a hard time of pinpointing the exact location of the heaviest showers and storms. Regardless, some areas will see heavy downpours while others may stay dry today. The 12Z MFL sounding shows southwesterly winds throughout the vertical column and a little stronger than yesterday. This will keep the east coast seabreeze pinned closer to the coast. Therefore, the best chance for heavy rainfall and strong storms looks to be along the I-95 corridor and the coastal areas. This could change if the sea breeze is able to push a little further inland than expected.

Moisture from the Caribbean continues to be advected into the area with PWAT levels of 1.7 inches. Diurnal heating with temperatures into the low 90s will provide instability for storms to develop this afternoon. DCAPE values are above 1000J/kg on this mornings sounding and model soundings, which is a little higher than yesterday. Given the environmental parameters the main impacts will be heavy rainfall, leading to potential localized flooding especially for coastal areas, lightning strikes and downburst gusty wind potential.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 734 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021)

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) . Southwesterly winds across the area with mainly VFR conditions outside of afternoon convection. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms focusing along the east coast sea breeze, VCTS included with TEMPOS likely to be added with future amendments once location and timing confidence increase. Light SW winds overnight with showers and storms a little earlier tomorrow in the late morning hours.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 253 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021)

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday) .

A very weak boundary across the Atlantic has developed generally from extreme south Miami-Dade through roughly Grand Bahama. A few showers and even a thunderstorm or two has developed through the early morning hours near the boundary. This should fizzle through the morning and into the afternoon hours, though an isolated shower or thunderstorm will remain possible areawide as the column remains quite moist (13/00z RAOB showed around 2" pwat) so any lift may be just enough to generate something.

The better lift or "generator of convection" comes later this morning and this afternoon as both a Gulf breeze and Atlantic sea breeze develop along their respective coastlines. With weak somewhat unidirectional flow from 0-6km, expect the gulf breeze to surge inland at a decent clip limiting the Naples metro's rain chances just a bit. However, the southwest flow does signal a better chances across the interior and Atlantic metro(s) today. Forecast soundings across the Atlantic continue to indicate around ~2" pwats with a very weak deep layer flow, meaning slow storm motion will be a concern along the Atlantic (and perhaps localized flooding). Further, H5 temperatures are still rather cool (between 7-9 degrees C) as a mid level trough remains over much of the state. Forecast instability values range from modest to moderate and DCAPE values are in some cases approaching 850-1000 J/KG. There certainly could be a few strong damaging wind gusts as the stronger, more robust updrafts collapse.

Monday looks to be the rainiest day between the two. A tropical airmass will begin to advect into the region from the western Caribbean along with plenty of lift from a mid/upper level vort/shear axis settling southward over much of the state in unison with the upper trough remaining locked across the state. With such a higher concentration of moisture and continued lackluster storm motion, more localized flooding Monday can be expected for both metro areas. The good news is with the increase in cloud cover and rain chances, temperatures will be a bit lower on Monday than today as much of the region today should approach (if not exceed) the 90 degree mark.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday) .

The unsettled weather pattern will continue into the middle portion of the week as the mid to upper level trough continues to amplify over the region. This will allow for the south to southwesterly wind flow to continue to bring plenty of deep layer tropical moisture into the region. The PWAT values through the middle of the week are forecasted to remain between 1.8 and 2 inches. This will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop along the east and west coast sea breezes as they move inland. With the south southwesterly flow in place, the greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms will be over the interior and east coast metro areas during the afternoon and evening hours, and then over the Gulf and Atlantic waters during the overnight and early morning hours. With the mid level trough in place, the cooler temperatures aloft will also remain as forecasted 500 mb temperatures remain between -7 and -9C. This combined with rather modest lapse rates will provide the opportunity for some of the storms to become strong containing gusty winds and heavy downpours.

By the end of the week, the amount of uncertainty in the forecast remains on the high side. The National Hurricane Center is currently watching an area of disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche. This area of disturbed weather looks to slowly move over the Gulf of Mexico well to the west of the region as a mid level ridge of high pressure builds back into the Bahamas and then over the Florida Straits by the end of the week. At the same time, a Saharan Dust Layer (SAL) is forecasted to move into the region by the end of the week. This SAL could help in drying things out over the mid levels which would help to reduce shower and thunderstorms coverage. The uncertainty comes into play as to how far north this SAL layer moves in as well as how far to the west the area of disturbed weather in the Gulf moves as the latest model guidance remains in disagreement in these features. The forecast for the end of the week currently represents a blend of models with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening as the sea breezes develops. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

MARINE .

A generally benign southwesterly flow is expected across the coastal waters of south Florida through the period. Can't rule out intermittent cautionary headlines from time to time as pressure gradient may tighten with lower pressures in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and higher pressure over the western Atlantic. Outside of this, the only other concern would be daily convection chances, which may have impacts such as cloud-to-water lightning, heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and locally rougher seas near or around convection.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Miami 77 89 77 90 / 40 60 40 60 West Kendall 75 89 76 90 / 50 60 50 60 Opa-Locka 75 90 78 90 / 40 60 40 60 Homestead 75 88 76 88 / 50 60 50 60 Fort Lauderdale 77 90 77 89 / 40 60 40 60 N Ft Lauderdale 77 88 77 89 / 40 60 40 60 Pembroke Pines 75 89 77 90 / 40 60 40 60 West Palm Beach 75 90 75 90 / 30 60 40 60 Boca Raton 76 91 77 89 / 40 60 40 60 Naples 77 88 77 88 / 40 60 50 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Update/Aviation . Kelly Today through Monday and Marine . Frye Monday Night through Saturday . CWC

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwsmiami www.twitter.com/nwsmiami


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 6 mi71 min NW 1.9 82°F 1015 hPa75°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 12 mi56 min W 6 G 8 86°F 86°F1014.6 hPa (+0.8)
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 30 mi116 min 86°F
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 31 mi122 min W 6 G 8 84°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 33 mi116 min 87°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 41 mi116 min 84°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 44 mi116 min 85°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 48 mi56 min W 7 G 9.9 83°F 87°F1013.9 hPa (+0.5)

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL13 mi63 minW 710.00 miA Few Clouds85°F74°F70%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6W6SW11SW8SW10W10W12W10W12W9W6W8W7W6W6W7W5W5W5W4W6W3W8W7
1 day agoS8S8SW13SW13S12S12SW11SW9SW9S11S8S3S3SW5SW5SE3E3E4E3CalmCalmE3CalmW3
2 days agoSE75S5SW12W10
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SW9SW9SW7W5W4SW4S3CalmSE8CalmCalmE5E5E4E5E6SE6SE7SE8

Tide / Current Tables for Marco, Big Marco River, Florida (2)
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Marco
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Sun -- 04:20 AM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:12 AM EDT     1.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:55 PM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:13 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.511.622.22.21.91.61.31.11.21.51.82.32.62.72.52.11.610.40-0.2-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Coon Key, Florida
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Coon Key
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:39 AM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:44 AM EDT     1.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:14 PM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:45 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.41.122.73.23.22.92.41.91.51.41.72.333.63.93.83.32.61.810.3-0.1-0.2

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