Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Marco Island, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:38PM Sunday December 15, 2019 11:06 AM EST (16:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:15PMMoonset 10:12AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 1027 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of light showers in the morning, then chance of light showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..NEarshore, south southwest winds 5 knots becoming north with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Offshore, west southwest winds around 5 knots becoming north 5 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Light showers likely late in the evening, then chance of light showers after midnight.
Wednesday..NEarshore, north winds 5 to 15 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet. Offshore, north winds 10 to 20 knots, seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Chance of light showers in the morning, then slight chance of light showers.
Wednesday night..North northeast winds 15 to 20 knots nearshore and north northeast 20 to 25 knots offshore. Seas 2 to 3 feet nearshore and 4 to 6 feet with occasional to 8 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots nearshore and northeast 15 to 25 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet with occasional to 6 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 924 Am Cst Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis..Light to moderate southerly winds will persist through Monday ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will move through the marine area late Monday night into Tuesday morning, with a strong northerly flow in its wake. Gusts to gale force are possible over the open gulf waters Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Thus, a small craft advisory will likely be needed beginning Tuesday morning and continuing through Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marco Island, FL
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location: 25.97, -81.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 151122 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 622 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

Aviation. Light NNW winds will veer to the NE and E after 14-15Z, except APF, where an onshore component will bring SW flow this afternoon. VFR will prevail during the next 24 hours at all TAF sites with high pressure well in control of the area weather.

Prev Discussion. /issued 343 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019/

Short Term (Today through Monday Night) . A frontal boundary crossed SoFlo yesterday, with a drier and cooler air mass filtering into the area in its wake. Meanwhile, a deep high pressure ridge is expanding across the SE states, with its southern periphery bringing veering winds to the NE and E through the short term.

A short-lived cold air advection event will usher cooler low temps this morning with lower 50s over northern interior areas to lower 60s along the coast. But by this afternoon, the air mass will begin modifying rather quickly, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Weather conditions should be great for today and tomorrow, with a relatively stable air mass establishing across SoFlo and zonal flow establishing aloft as the aforementioned high pressure expands over the region in the wake of the FROPA. Temperatures bounce back on Monday with afternoon highs climbing into the low to mid 80s.

Long Term (Tuesday through Saturday Night) . Southeasterly to southerly winds and increasing rain chances are expected on Tuesday as a cold front pushes southeastward into the state. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday afternoon, with deeper moisture returning to the area. Additional showers will be possible along the actual cold front when it finally pushes through the area late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, with breezy north to northeasterly flow expected in the wake of the front Wednesday and Wednesday night. Cooler and drier conditions are expected in the wake of the front, with high temperatures on Wednesday forecast in the upper 60s west of the Lake to the upper 70s across far South Florida. Since this depends on the front clearing the area Wednesday morning, any slowing of the front could have significant impacts to the high temperature forecast on Wednesday. Low temperatures Wednesday night are forecast to be the coldest of the period and range from the mid/upper 40s west of the Lake to near 60 right along the East Coast.

Northeasterly to easterly flow returns on Thursday into Thursday night as surface high pressure over the southeastern CONUS pushes eastward, kicking off another gradual moisture return over the area. Forecast gets quite interesting towards the end of the period as another cold front is expected to push across the area. GFS solution now has a less amplified trough pushing southeastward with the surface low developing off the Georgia coast and dragging a cold front across the area Friday night into Saturday. At the same time, it shows another low developing near Cuba and pushing quickly northeastward across the Keys and over the Bahamas before having the two lows do some sort of Fujiwara dance as they push northeastward over the Atlantic. The ECMWF is somewhat similar in that it shows a less amplified trough with the main surface low developing and deepening off the Georgia coast and dragging a cold front across the area on Saturday. It also has another surface low developing over the Bahamas and pushing northeastward with the other, stronger low. Right now it's far too soon to tell what kind of impacts, if any, South Florida would see from this system next weekend Plus, given the . odd solutions in these latest runs I would expect things to change at least a decent bit as we get closer.

Marine . Conditions in the Atlantic waters are subsiding as high pressure builds closer to the area. Persistent moderate easterly flow will return later today, keeping seas under highlight criteria. A mid- week cold front could bring periods of hazardous conditions over the area waters through the end of the work week.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 79 68 81 71 / 0 10 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 79 71 81 73 / 0 10 20 30 Miami 80 70 83 73 / 0 10 10 20 Naples 80 63 84 68 / 0 0 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Aviation . 17/AR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 6 mi81 min E 6 62°F 1022 hPa56°F
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 12 mi48 min ENE 7 G 11 66°F 72°F1020.8 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 30 mi66 min 74°F
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 31 mi72 min ENE 8 G 12 65°F 1021.8 hPa
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 33 mi66 min 74°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 41 mi66 min 74°F
WIWF1 - Willy Willy, FL 44 mi66 min 74°F
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 48 mi48 min NE 2.9 G 7 65°F 72°F1021.2 hPa

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL13 mi13 minENE 910.00 miFair71°F53°F53%1020.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W9W11W13NW11
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NW10NW8NW4N3N4CalmN3CalmCalmNE5NE4NE5N5N5NE4NE3NE9NE9NE9
1 day agoS6S6S8SW8SW5SW4S4S6S6S10S10SW5SW7S8SW7S7S8SW8SW6SW10S8SW11SW13
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2 days ago66NE5SE8CalmCalmSW3S4SW3NE4N4NE7NE6E6CalmCalmNE3NE4NE6CalmCalmE3SE3SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Marco, Big Marco River, Florida (2)
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Marco
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:50 AM EST     2.46 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:01 AM EST     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:11 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:48 PM EST     2.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:55 PM EST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.42.52.31.81.20.60-0.4-0.5-0.4-00.51.11.722.11.91.61.20.90.80.91.2

Tide / Current Tables for Coon Key, Florida
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Coon Key
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:09 AM EST     3.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:33 AM EST     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:11 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:07 PM EST     3.01 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:27 PM EST     1.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.73.33.63.432.21.30.4-0.2-0.6-0.6-0.30.41.32.22.832.92.41.91.311.11.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.