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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 401 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Tonight..E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sun..S se winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Seas 1 foot. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..NEar shore, sw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt after midnight, seas 2 ft or less. Well offshore, W nw winds 10 to 15 kt becoming N nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight, seas 2 ft or less building to 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft after midnight. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt near shore...except N ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt well offshore. Seas 2 to 3 ft near shore and 6 to 7 ft, occasionally to 9 ft well offshore. Period 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Mon night..N ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt near shore...except ne 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and around 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt near shore...except ne 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 5 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt near shore...except ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and around 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed and Wed night..NE winds around 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore...except E ne 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 4 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Thu and Thu night..E ne winds around 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore...except E ne 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 5 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.

GMZ600 357 Pm Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis..Light to moderate onshore flow will shift westerly late tonight into Sunday morning ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Areas of dense fog are likely across much of coastal alabama through tonight. A strong northwesterly to northerly flow follows behind the front for Sunday through Sunday night with gusts to gale force over the open gulf. Light to moderate offshore flow returns on Monday and persists into the middle of next week.

FXUS62 KMFL 092325 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 625 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1202 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

The airmass over South Florida will continue to moisten as we remain on the periphery of Atlantic surface high pressure which will permit the southeasterly to southerly wind flow this weekend. Aloft, a mid- level low crossing the upper midwest and an amplifying mid-level longwave trough moving into the eastern third of the country will propel a cold front across the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards the area on Sunday.

Convection today should remain mostly showers with a focus along a boundary located over the Atlantic waters off Palm Beach County. As this warm front retreats northward heading into Sunday, rain chances will generally diminish until diurnal heating peaks on Sunday afternoon ahead of the cold front. Some thunderstorm activity is possible, although coverage will be highest over the local waters.
Localized heavy rainfall is also possible, particularly along the east coast metro where coastal influences could contribute. The frontal boundary is expected to pass through the area Sunday night into Monday, and some showers and thunderstorms will linger and continue into the overnight period.

Highs today and tomorrow will reach the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Models remain in fair agreement regarding a FROPA Sunday night into monday, bringing deteriorating conditions across the area.
Model PWATs continue to gradually increase to values near 2 inches Sunday night, which will support enhanced convection over the coastal waters first, and then spreading over land. Latest POPs remain in the 40 to 60% chance, with a chance of thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon and through the evening hours. Can't rule out a few strong cells, especially along the Atlantic coastline where coastal convergence may promote deeper convection.

The front clears SoFlo Monday morning with high pressure building in its wake. Expect cooler/drier air advection from the north, with daytime temperatures remaining in the 70s on Monday afternoon.
Nighttime lows should drop into the low-mid 50s inland and low-mid 60s elsewhere.

Long range solutions keep the decaying boundary lingering near the Florida Keys, nearly stationary through late Tuesday, and keeping enhanced pressure gradients across the southern half of the peninsula. Therefore, expect periods of breezy and gusty northeasterly winds, especially in the afternoon hours. By late Wednesday and through the end of the week, models suggest another surge of moisture as the decaying boundary retrogrades across the area. A stratiform deck should accompany the returning front, with POPs jumping back into the 50 or even 60 percent range, especially around the east coast, on Thursday. Latest ensemble members show possible PWATs of up to 2 inches Thursday afternoon, and potential for isolated max QPF values of up to 4 inches. But since it is too early to embrace any particular solution, the forecast philosophy will remain on the conservative side in terms of QPF, and continue to adjust accordingly as new guidance becomes available.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

VFR with southeasterly wind flow across the area overnight. Winds will become breezy after sunrise with southeast wind flow prevailing. Potential of SHRA impacting sites after 20z along the east coast tomorrow afternoon although confidence remains low at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 1202 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Gusty easterly to southeasterly winds today will become more southerly to southwesterly on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Showers and some thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through the period, particularly over the local waters. Strong winds in the wake of the cold front could allow hazardous marine conditions to develop by Monday and linger through much of the week.

BEACHES
Issued at 1202 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

A high risk of rip currents will persist through at least the weekend along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida thanks to a southeasterly wind flow. Accordingly, the Rip Current Statement for

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 72 82 67 75 / 10 30 50 10 West Kendall 68 83 64 76 / 10 30 40 0 Opa-Locka 71 83 65 76 / 10 30 50 10 Homestead 71 82 65 77 / 10 30 40 10 Fort Lauderdale 72 82 66 75 / 10 30 60 10 N Ft Lauderdale 72 82 65 75 / 10 30 50 10 Pembroke Pines 70 83 65 75 / 10 30 50 10 West Palm Beach 69 82 63 72 / 10 20 50 0 Boca Raton 71 83 64 74 / 10 30 60 10 Naples 66 81 60 71 / 0 20 30 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Marco
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Sat -- 03:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:26 AM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:32 AM EST     1.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:05 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:28 PM EST     1.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:01 PM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Marco, Big Marco River, Florida, Tide feet

Coon Key
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Sat -- 03:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:04 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:26 AM EST     2.81 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:04 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:47 PM EST     1.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:32 PM EST     3.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Coon Key, Florida, Tide feet

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