Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Naples Manor, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 8:05PM Friday August 14, 2020 12:58 PM EDT (16:58 UTC) Moonrise 1:29AMMoonset 3:34PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 1039 Am Edt Fri Aug 14 2020
Rest of today..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Saturday..East southeast winds around 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 5 knots becoming east southeast after midnight. Seas less than 1 foot. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Sunday..West southwest winds 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West southwest winds 10 knots becoming south after midnight. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Monday..West southwest winds 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..West southwest winds 10 knots becoming south after midnight. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1015 Am Cdt Fri Aug 14 2020
Synopsis..A ridge of high pressure extending from the western atlantic into the central gulf will persist through the weekend. Meanwhile, a surface trough will move into the southeast states. This results in a light to occasionally moderate westerly flow through the weekend. Seas briefly build late tonight into Saturday morning with a brief increase in the westerly flow. A light offshore flow develops early next week as the surface trough briefly moves into the extreme northern gulf.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Naples Manor, FL
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location: 26.06, -81.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 141416 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1016 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Update. Isolated to scattered quick-moving showers are developing over the Broward/Palm Beach waters. Most of this convection is dissipating as it approaches the Atlantic metro region, owing to a decrease in the low-level convergent flow upon reaching land. With the exception of a stray isolated shower, the Atlantic metro should stay dry, as easterly flow advects a swath of drier air over the region.

The 12Z MFL sounding indicates very little change in the synoptic pattern over the previous 24 hours. Weak easterly flow is present throughout most of the tropospheric column (up to 350 hPa) as well as a modest moisture profile, indicated by PWI of 1.95 ins. Expect storms to form along the Atlantic sea-breeze this afternoon across the interior, as the easterly flow pushes the sea-breeze inland. As convective cold pools propagate westward and congeal, multicell structures may develop. Isolated wind gusts of 40-50 mph are possible across the western interior region, as a broad region of roughly 1000 J/kg DCAPE encompasses most of this area. Other hazards include frequent lightning and localized heavy rainfall. Based on the aforementioned analysis and reasoning, PoPs have been increased along the western interior to account for an uptick in confidence.

Prev Discussion. /issued 727 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020/

Aviation (12Z TAFs) . VFR conditions should prevail across most of the east coast TAF sites. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions may be experienced along the Atlantic coastline in association with quick-moving, pulse-type showers. This activity should gradually shift towards the interior by late AM/early PM and wane over the east coast, as the Atlantic sea-breeze moves inland. Convective coverage may increase near KAPF and west coast sites later this afternoon, however TEMPOs not necessary at this time. Winds predominately ESE except at KAPF, where Gulf Coast sea-breeze may cause SW wind shift.

Prev Discussion . /issued 358 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020/

Hot summer day with showers and storms possible again today.

Short Term (Today through Saturday) . Another warm summer day with light east-southeasterly flow due to surface high pressure centered over the Atlantic. Aloft a trough over the southeastern United States will amplify into the Gulf of Mexico as a surface low and an associated trough moves from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Atlantic. A high aloft easing into the Bahamas could help to bring some drier air towards the area which could allow for slightly lower rain chances today. Sea breezes are expected to develop again with the Atlantic sea breeze favored by the easterly flow pattern. The Gulf sea breeze will be slightly restrained but should be able to advance inland to around the State Road 29 corridor. Therefore the highest PoPs today will remain over inland portions of Southwest Florida, though with a slightly earlier timing compared to normal as the sea breeze collisions should be earlier as well.

Convection should diminish over the peninsula in the evening, once again shifting over the waters overnight. The pattern repeats similarly for Saturday though it will be worth watching if a drier pocket of air moves into the region in case rain chances may need to be adjusted lower. Temperatures will reach into the 90s both days with some heat index values reaching into the mid 100s over inland portions of Southwest Florida. Overnight lows will also remain warm, particularly along the Atlantic coast.

Long Term (Sunday through Thursday) . For Sunday and Monday, models depict an amplifying trough across the SE CONUS, which begins to erode the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge. This setup will begin shifting overall winds across SoFlo to a more southerly, or even southwesterly flow at times. Thus, moisture advection from the Caribbean will increase, and together with daytime heating, will support afternoon scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The flow will push best POPs into the interior/northern portions of the CWA, especially around the Lake region.

By the middle of the work week, long range model solutions suggest another trough building over the Gulf region, further extending the streaming moisture from the south through the rest of the long term. POPs will be adjusted to around 60 percent for each afternoon, with aerial coverage becoming wide spread Wed/Thu. The increasing showers and storms will bring flooding potential, especially with multiple rounds of downpours over the same location.

The hot temperatures continue with afternoon maxs in the low to mid 90s, along with heat indices reaching triple digits over much of SoFlo.

Marine . High pressure situated across the western Atlantic waters will maintain light easterly to southeasterly surface flow and generally favorable marine conditions into the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and storms can be expected across the Atlantic waters during the overnight and morning hours, transitioning to the Gulf waters during the late afternoon and early evening hours. The wind pattern will begin to shift Sunday with a southerly flow developing and then becoming southwesterly early next week. Sea breezes will still cause an onshore flow to develop most late morning and afternoons near the coasts.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 91 77 92 77 / 20 10 40 10 Fort Lauderdale 90 80 91 79 / 20 10 40 10 Miami 91 79 92 78 / 20 10 40 10 Naples 92 76 93 76 / 20 20 50 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Update . 09/Bhatti Aviation . 09/Bhatti Marine . 02/RAG Short Term . 02/RAG Long Term . 17/AR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 5 mi73 min SE 2.9 92°F 1017 hPa78°F
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 24 mi64 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 90°F 1017.2 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 38 mi58 min 91°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 41 mi58 min 88°F
LMRF1 - Lostmans River, FL 48 mi58 min 90°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL6 mi65 minSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy90°F75°F62%1016.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SW9W10--W8N5N5NE8CalmNE3E5CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE5E6E5SE8E6SE5
1 day agoSE5W9S8SE5W4W4W4N3N3CalmCalmSE6W3NW4CalmE4NE3E4NE4E6E7SE9SE8E8
2 days agoN5NE7W4SW9W10SW8SE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Naples (outer coast), Florida
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Naples (outer coast)
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:02 AM EDT     1.91 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:08 AM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:13 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:15 PM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.1221.922.22.42.62.82.92.82.521.510.50.30.40.71.11.51.92.22.3

Tide / Current Tables for Naples, Naples Bay, north end, Florida
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Naples
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:11 AM EDT     1.74 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:01 AM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:14 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:49 PM EDT     2.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.121.81.71.81.92.12.42.52.62.52.32.11.71.30.90.60.50.50.81.21.72.12.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.