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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 401 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Period 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Period 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wed..N nw winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore...except N nw 15 to 20 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft well offshore. Period 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wed night..N ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft well offshore. Period 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thu and Thu night..E ne winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt nearshore and E ne 15 to 20 kt offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Fri and Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore...except E around 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt well offshore. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sat..E se winds around 10 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore...except E se 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt well offshore. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.

GMZ600 359 Am Cst Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis..A light to moderate offshore flow will prevail today. Moderate to strong northerly flow will briefly develop tonight into Wednesday in the wake of a cold front before turning easterly to southeasterly late in the week.

FXUS62 KMFL 051059 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 559 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

A short-wave trough is currently traversing the eastern United States, accompanied by a weakening cold front moving east/southeastward toward the western Atlantic waters. A narrow band of moisture, confined to the east coast and Atlantic waters within the boundary layer, will gradually be supplanted by a cooler and drier air mass today. As this air mass stabilizes across the region, a return to seasonal temperature norms is expected, though temperatures may remain slightly elevated in some east coast metropolitan areas. The prevailing conditions will be predominantly dry, with the potential for an isolated, transient shower along the immediate Atlantic coastline. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to reach the lower 80s along much of the east coast, while the rest of the region will experience highs in the mid to upper 70s. By Wednesday, a vigorous short-wave trough originating from the Great Lakes region is expected to progress southward, reaching subtropical latitudes. An associated surface high-pressure ridge, characterized by a continental polar air mass, will also move equatorward, in tandem with the trough. This subsequent influx of cold air will sweep over South Florida, leading to a marked temperature decrease and virtually negligible chances of rainfall throughout the region. Afternoon high temperatures on Wednesday may scarcely rise above 70 degrees in many areas, with expected highs ranging from the mid-60s to the lower 70s. Rainfall chances will remain minimal following the reduction in moisture and the lack of upward atmospheric forcing.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 158 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

Thursday morning may be the coldest night thus far in the dry season, with temperatures potentially dropping to the mid-40s in areas near the lake and to the mid-50s in the proximity of the east coast metropolitan regions. The presence of a cold/dry airmass will continue to quell rainfall chances, with near zero rainfall chances prevailing across the region through the day. As the robust high-pressure system currently positioned to the north progresses eastward on Thursday and Friday, a gradual warming trend is anticipated due to a shift in wind patterns. Winds are expected to veer, becoming northeasterly on Thursday and transitioning to east-southeasterly on Friday. This shift will facilitate an increase in high temperatures, reaching the lower to mid-70s on Thursday, followed by a rise to the mid to upper 70s on Friday. Despite this temperature increase, the prevailing dry air mass will persist during this period. However, as moisture advection commences on Friday, the potential for isolated showers, primarily along the immediate east coast, cannot be discounted.

The synoptic weather pattern will undergo a significant change over the weekend. A mid-level ridge is projected to advance into the western Atlantic, while a deepening trough traverses the Central Plains, moving towards the eastern Seaboard. At the surface, an intensifying low-pressure system is expected to advance into the Midwest and Great Lakes region over the weekend.
This systems associated cold front will make its way across the Eastern Seaboard, reaching the Florida Peninsula from Saturday night into Sunday. Ahead of this frontal boundary, prevailing southeasterly winds on Saturday will continue to veer, becoming south-southwesterly by Sunday. There is increased forecast uncertainty during this latter part of the period, as it approaches the limit of the forecast range and model guidance shows disparities regarding the timing and intensity of the frontal passage. Concurrent with the fronts approach, moisture levels will rise, amplifying the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms, particularly on Sunday. The current forecast integrates a consensus of model outputs, indicating heightened chances of showers and thunderstorms during the latter half of the weekend. This aspect of the forecast will be closely monitored as the week progresses. In terms of temperatures, a continued warming trend is anticipated for Saturday and Sunday, with high temperatures expected to reach the lower 80s in most areas.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

VFR expected through the 12Z TAF period. As the frontal boundary moves through this morning, the winds will strengthen and become N-NW. They will remain northerly through the period and strengthen to 10-15KT this evening, especially at TAF sites closer to the coast.

MARINE
Issued at 158 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

A frontal boundary will continue to move through the region today, which may spark a few showers over the Atlantic waters. North to northwesterly winds will generally prevail, and a stronger cold front will move through the region by Wednesday. This secondary cold front may introduce cautionary or even hazardous marine conditions, with elevated winds and seas being the primary hazards to monitor.

BEACHES
Issued at 158 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

The threat for rip currents may be reintroduced later in the week with a strong cold front forecast to move through the region by Wednesday and the flow becomes more easterly by the end of the work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 83 61 74 55 / 10 0 0 0 West Kendall 84 57 73 51 / 10 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 84 60 73 54 / 10 0 0 0 Homestead 83 59 73 54 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 82 61 73 56 / 10 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 82 60 72 55 / 10 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 84 58 73 53 / 10 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 82 57 72 54 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 82 59 72 55 / 10 0 0 0 Naples 79 59 72 48 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Naples (outer coast)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:23 AM EST     1.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 05:55 AM EST     2.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:29 PM EST     0.81 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:07 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:00 PM EST     2.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Naples (outer coast), Florida, Tide feet

Naples
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:20 AM EST     1.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 05:44 AM EST     1.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:49 PM EST     0.73 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:07 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:34 PM EST     2.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Naples, Naples Bay, north end, Florida, Tide feet

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