Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dania Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:31PM Friday December 13, 2019 3:32 PM EST (20:32 UTC) Moonrise 7:04PMMoonset 8:14AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ651 Coastal Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Deerfield Beach To Ocean Reef Fl From 20 To 60 Nm Excluding The Territorial Waters Of Bahamas- 913 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Rest of today..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Period 9 seconds. North northwest swell around 3 feet in the morning. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of light showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Period 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of light showers through the night.
Saturday..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of light showers.
Saturday night..North northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Sunday..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Sunday night and Monday..East winds 10 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots along the coast to southeast 15 to 20 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Chance of light showers after midnight.
Tuesday..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of light showers in the morning, then light showers likely.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 913 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis..Scattered showers and a few Thunderstorms will be possible today as a frontal boundary over the lake region slowly pushes northward. The small craft advisory for the atlantic has been extended in the waters offshore palm beach county due to lingering wave action in the gulf stream, but conditions should gradually improve over the next day or so. A cold front will push through the area tomorrow with winds becoming northwesterly in its wake. However, hazardous boating conditions are not expected in the wake of this front. Another, stronger front should push through the area around midweek next week.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas 7 to 9 feet today. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 12, 2019 at 1200 utc... 13 nautical miles east of fowey rocks. 19 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 18 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 16 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dania Beach city, FL
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location: 26.09, -80.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 131750 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1250 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

Aviation. Generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail into this afternoon, but some shower activity at times could cause some MVFR conditions. Most models keep the heavier SHRA and TS offshore in the Atlantic waters, but again, east coast sites may see a passing shower through 00Z this evening with KPBI having the chance through 04Z. If TS were able to develop along the coast, KPBI has the greatest potential, but due to low confidence, omitted from TAFs at this time. Winds gradually become southwesterly through the period as a cold front approaches the region with breezy SW to W winds tomorrow. Chances for SHRA exist tomorrow morning and early afternoon, but again, low confidence on coverage and timing is causing omission from TAFs.

Prev Discussion. /issued 944 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019/

Update . Latest TAFB surface analysis (12Z) has the frontal boundary from yesterday across the lake region which is progged to lift northward as a warm front over the course of the day today. Looking at the latest obs, the warm front seems to have already lift north of the area and out of MFL's CWA. GOES-16 visible and IR imagery has the thicker clouds along with thunderstorms to the north of South Florida and near the approaching cold front boundary, across north/central Florida and the eastern Gulf waters. Some of the thunderstorms have cloud tops reading ~70 degrees C.

MFL's 13/12Z sounding had a PW of 1.30 inches, which is almost in the 75th percentile for this time of year. Normally we see PW readings of around 1.10 inches. Furthermore, winds veer with height, indicating WAA and lift. One thing to keep note of is the 0-3 km SRH and DCAPE, which are 119 m2s2 and 944 J/kg, respectively. Bouts of weak rotation and strong downbursts will be possible today, mainly this afternoon, moreso over the Atlantic waters which most meso-models are keeping the bulk of activity. There is a fairly strong cap in the 750-700 mb layer that will help suppress development this morning. The caveat here is cloud coverage. If we stay mostly cloudy throughout the day, it will be hard for daytime heating to play a significant role in eroding that cap. Regardless, a warm, moist airmass in place over the region will certainly feed shower activity this afternoon into the evening especially as the cold front closes in on the region and supplies some instability and lift. As mentioned above, thunderstorms look to remain offshore in the Atlantic waters, but again the chance is still there for areas along the east coast, moreso Palm Beach County.

Prev Discussion . /issued 358 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019/

Discussion .

Short Term (Today Through Saturday Night) . Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the area today as a diffuse frontal boundary over the Lake Region pushes northward as a warm front. Best coverage of showers/storms is forecast over the Atlantic and across the eastern half of the Peninsula, particularly Palm Beach county with the southwest steering flow this afternoon. A few storms out over the Atlantic could be fairly strong this afternoon and evening, but southwesterly steering flow should keep them offshore. Easterly winds to start the day will become more southerly to south- southwesterly through the day today as an area of surface low pressure pushes northeastward across North Florida and up the Southeast CONUS coast. This low pressure system will drag a cold front across South Florida on Saturday, with only weak showers expected along it as the mid and upper-level support has largely ejected off to the northeast by the time the front enters South Florida. Northwesterly to northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front with cooler and drier air filtering in over the area. Low temperatures Saturday night are forecast to drop into the low 50s west of the Lake to near 60 along the East Coast.

Long Term . (Sunday-Thursday) . Models depict a broad high pressure system expanding across the region in the wake of the FROPA, bringing a brief cool down from late Sunday into Monday. The colder air will result from modest cold air advection from prevailing NNE flow, which will keep morning lows on Monday in the upper 50s to mid 60s inland, and in the mid-upper 60s over the metro areas.

The high gradually migrates eastward into the Atlantic seaboard, with its SSW periphery moving over SoFlo and veering winds to a more SE flow. This will bring back some low level moisture from the Caribbean and modify the airmass over the area, which combined with daytime heating will push POPs back into the higher-end scattered 45-55% chance of rain by Tuesday afternoon. Expect temperatures to also climb back on Tuesday afternoon into the low to mid 80s.

Global models remain in fair agreement regarding the next FROPA across the FL peninsula, associated with a deepening trough/low complex across the eastern states. Motion of this front continues to slow down with latest solutions bringing it across the northern half of Florida late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. It will also contribute in the increasing POPSs/Wx for the Tuesday- Wednesday timeframe ahead of the approaching boundary.

A few storms are possible Tuesday afternoon, but with the best dynamic lifting/support remaining well to the north of SoFlo, will keep chances of thunderstorms at a minimum attm and wait for upcoming model guidance before going any higher.

More cold air advection establishes behind the FROPA through the end of the work week with overnight temperatures a few degrees colder than the previous nights. Expect upper 40s to low 50s around Lake Okeechobee, and in the low 60s along the east coast Thursday and Friday morning. But this scenario could change significantly if the models are either too slow or too fast with the FROPA.

Marine . Hazardous marine conditions continue for the Atlantic waters today with seas remaining elevated in the Gulf Stream through this evening. Passing showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across all waters today and tonight as a stalled front over the Lake Region pushes northward. A cold front will push through the area tomorrow, with northwesterly winds in its wake. Hazardous boating conditions are not expected in the wake of this front. However, another stronger front will push through around midweek next week and may create hazardous marine conditions at that time.

Beaches . A high risk of rip currents is forecast for the Atlantic beaches today as lingering swell continues to affect the coast. Rough surf will also be possible for the Palm Beaches. Rip currents should improve some this weekend before elevating again early next week with breezy east flow.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 68 80 58 78 / 30 30 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 71 81 62 78 / 30 30 0 0 Miami 70 82 62 79 / 20 30 0 0 Naples 69 79 58 79 / 40 40 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-670.

GM . None.

Update . 03/Fell Marine . 32/MM Aviation . 03/Fell Beach Forecast . 32/MM Short Term . 32/MM Long Term . 17/AR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PEGF1 0 mi56 min SSE 8 G 11 80°F 1011.9 hPa
VAKF1 - 8723214 - Virginia Key, FL 25 mi56 min S 8.9 G 9.9 78°F 78°F1011.8 hPa
FWYF1 - Fowey Rocks, FL 35 mi32 min SSE 12 G 12 77°F 77°F1012.3 hPa (-2.6)
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 36 mi44 min S 9.9 G 12 78°F 78°F1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Virginia Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport, FL2 mi39 minSW 610.00 miOvercast80°F68°F67%1011.4 hPa
Fort Lauderdale, Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, FL8 mi39 minSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F66°F64%1011.8 hPa
Hollywood, North Perry Airport, FL9 mi39 minSW 510.00 miOvercast82°F68°F63%1012.1 hPa
Pompano Beach, Pompano Beach Airpark, FL11 mi39 minSSW 68.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F66°F58%1011.7 hPa
Miami, Opa Locka Airport, FL15 mi39 minS 510.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F69°F67%1012.1 hPa
Miami, Miami International Airport, FL20 mi39 minSSW 1010.00 miOvercast81°F66°F61%1012 hPa
Boca Raton, Boca Raton Airport, FL20 mi42 minSSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F69°F66%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFLL

Wind History from FLL (wind in knots)
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CalmE10E14E12E10E8E10SE12SE11SE8SE10SE6SE6SE9SE9SE11S8S9SW8
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1 day agoSE6SE4E8E10E6N7N5E10E4CalmN3E6N4N5SW4CalmN5Calm3SE7S5E6E5SE11
2 days agoSE11SE9SE11SE9SE9SE8SE7SE8SE7SE10SE8SE6SE5S5SE7SE5SE6SE8S13SE11SE12SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Everglades, Turning Basin, Fort Lauderdale, Florida
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Port Everglades
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:13 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:14 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 08:40 AM EST     3.21 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:46 PM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:41 PM EST     2.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.1-0.1-00.41.222.73.13.22.92.31.60.90.50.40.61.21.82.42.82.92.62

Tide / Current Tables for Miami Harbor Entrance, Florida Current
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Miami Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:30 AM EST     -1.64 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:05 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:43 AM EST     2.33 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:13 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:31 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:13 PM EST     -1.47 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:38 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:57 PM EST     1.92 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:33 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-1.6-1.4-1-0.11.22.22.32.11.60.6-0.5-1.2-1.5-1.4-1.2-0.70.51.61.91.71.40.6-0.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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