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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 1000 Pm Est Sun Dec 3 2023
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am est Monday...
Rest of tonight..W winds 5 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 0 to 1 ft. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. Areas of dense fog.
Mon..SW winds 5 kt becoming W nw in the afternoon. Seas 0 to 1 ft. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Areas of dense fog in the morning.
Mon night..N nw winds 5 to 10 kt nearshore and N 10 to 15 kt offshore. Seas less than 2 ft nearshore and 1 to 2 ft offshore. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Period 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt nearshore and N 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt offshore. Seas 2 ft or less nearshore and 2 to 3 ft offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Wed..N nw winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt nearshore and N nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt offshore. Seas 2 ft or less nearshore and 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt nearshore and N ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt offshore. Seas 2 ft or less nearshore and 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thu and Thu night..E ne winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less nearshore and 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas less than 2 ft nearshore and 1 to 2 ft offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Fri night..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.

GMZ600 856 Pm Cst Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis..A light to moderate offshore flow continues through the middle of the week in the wake of a cold front. Moderate to strong offshore flow may develop Wednesday before turning easterly and relaxing by the end of the week.

FXUS62 KMFL 040624 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 124 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 120 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

A short-wave trough and an attendant cold front continue their eastward propagation across the southeastern United States, with a NNE/WSW-oriented cold front draped across the Florida panhandle, as per the latest WPC analysis. Near the surface, a light southwesterly flow is maintained across much of the southern peninsula through the early morning hours. This will facilitate the advection of a warm, moist air mass, originating from the Gulf waters, to overspread South Florida. As a result, a widespread fog event is expected to envelop much of the region through the early morning hours. A robust radiation (nocturnal) inversion may allow for the persistence of this activity into mid-morning, particularly in interior locations where a delay exists between warming and fog erosion. Dense fog advisories could be necessary, and commuters during these hours should exercise caution on the roads this morning. Once the fog dissipates, likely by mid- morning, the focus shifts to the possibility of scattered showers across the west coast and Gulf waters. Frontogenetical forcing will facilitate low-level moisture convergence, potentially sparking a few showers in the aforementioned locations. Impacts will likely be short-lived, aside from locally gusty winds and reduced visibilities.

By late Monday into tomorrow, winds will shift out of the north/northwest, due to a distinct frontal passage across the southern peninsula. This wind shift will result in the advection of a cooler and drier air mass over the region. The limited fetch related to the cooler air mass will lead to a reduction in maximum temperatures by several degrees, but a more notable drop in dewpoints - into the mid-50s/lower 60s. This, coupled with near zero rainfall chances across much of the region, should yield a quiescent and temperate day overall, with little to no weather impacts of concern during this period.

Temperatures will be reduced compared to prior days, with maximum temperatures reaching the upper 70s/lower 80s across much of the region. Tomorrow will feature a further reduction in maximum temperatures into the mid/upper 70s, as winds continue to prevail out of the north/northwest.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 120 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

On Wednesday, a secondary frontal system is anticipated to usher in a transient phase of notably cool and exceptionally dry air over South Florida. High temperatures for the day are forecast to range only in the low to mid-70s, while dewpoints are expected to descend into the 30s and 40s. The subsequent night leading into Thursday morning is projected to be the coldest interval of this period, with temperatures potentially dropping to the mid-40s in areas near the lake and to the mid-50s in the proximity of the east coast metropolitan regions.

As the high-pressure system situated to our north migrates eastward from Thursday into the latter part of the week, an easterly wind shift is expected. This alteration will introduce a maritime influence, moderating dewpoints and overnight temperatures. By Friday morning, low temperatures are predicted to vary from the mid-50s near the lake to the mid-60s in the east coast metropolitan areas. Despite this, the prevailing air mass, characterized by the continuance of cold 850 mb temperatures (around the lower 10th percentile), will maintain cool conditions, resulting in mild daytime highs around the mid-70s on Thursday, with a slight increase to the mid to upper 70s forecast by Friday.
By Saturday, the high-pressure system will have advanced significantly into the Atlantic, fostering a regime of warm advection and leading to highs exceeding the seasonal norms, returning to the 80s.

Throughout the extended forecast period, predominantly dry conditions are expected. However, from Friday into Saturday, the interaction of a weak southern stream wave and modest coastal convergence may suffice to trigger isolated showers near the east coast.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Dense fog development will result in sub-VFR VIS/CIG conditions for several of the terminals through early this morning, with generally VFR conditions expected after 15Z. IFR/LIFR conditions have been observed at KAPF and KTMB. Other East Coast sites could also see periods of IFR/MVFR conditions between 09Z-15Z as fog coverage expands. Light/variable winds overnight become WSW between 5-10 kts by this afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 120 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Mariners should be aware of the potential for dense fog formation over the nearshore Gulf waters through the early to mid-morning hours. As a frontal boundary approaches the region today, there's a possibility of isolated showers occurring over the local waters, with the greatest chances over the Gulf waters. A north/northwesterly wind shift will develop in the wake of this cold front, with another stronger cold front moving through the region by Wednesday. Most of this week remains dry, with cautionary conditions being possible with the front moving through the region in the middle of this week.

BEACHES
Issued at 120 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

The threat for rip currents may be reintroduced later in the week with a strong cold front forecast to move through the region by Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 85 70 83 60 / 10 10 0 0 West Kendall 86 67 83 56 / 10 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 86 68 82 58 / 10 10 0 0 Homestead 85 68 82 58 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 85 68 82 59 / 10 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 85 68 81 59 / 10 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 86 67 83 58 / 10 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 85 65 81 56 / 10 10 0 0 Boca Raton 86 67 81 58 / 10 10 0 0 Naples 81 63 78 58 / 20 10 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ069-070- 073.

AM...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GMZ656-657.

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Naples
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Sun -- 03:11 AM EST     2.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:59 AM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:07 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:42 PM EST     2.00 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:54 PM EST     1.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Naples, Naples Bay, north end, Florida, Tide feet

Marco
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Sun -- 03:22 AM EST     1.97 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:29 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:06 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:48 PM EST     1.67 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:34 PM EST     1.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Marco, Big Marco River, Florida, Tide feet

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