Laguna Vista, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Laguna Vista, TX

June 17, 2024 9:24 PM CDT (02:24 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM
Moonrise 3:34 PM   Moonset 2:10 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 910 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 17 2024

.tropical storm watch in effect - .

Rest of tonight - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Hazy.

Tuesday - East winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. Hazy. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers. Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Tuesday night - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Thunderstorms likely. Showers.

Wednesday - Tropical storm conditions possible. Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming east 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots in the afternoon. Choppy on the bay, increasing to rough in the afternoon. Thunderstorms likely. Showers.

Wednesday night - Tropical storm conditions possible. East winds 25 to 30 knots. Very rough on the bay. Showers, Thunderstorms.

Thursday - Tropical storm conditions possible. East winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Rough on the bay. Showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Thursday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Showers with Thunderstorms likely early in the evening, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the late evening and overnight.

Friday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.

Friday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay, diminishing to light chop after midnight. Showers in the evening. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers after midnight.

Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Saturday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 910 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 17 2024

Synopsis - Adverse to hazardous marine conditions are expected during the forecast due to the formation and eventual movement of a tropical system in the southern and western gulf of mexico. Mariners are strongly advised to Monitor the coastal waters forecast through the next several days.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laguna Vista, TX
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Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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FXUS64 KBRO 172317 AAB AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 617 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 522 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.Tropical Storm Watch now in effect for the Lower Texas Coast.
This includes Cameron Island, Kenedy Island, Willacy Island, Coastal Cameron, Coastal Kenedy, and Coastal Willacy Counties...

See our Hurricane Local Statement (HLS) for more details.

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Key Messages:

* Coastal Flood Watch in effect for the barrier island and Coastal Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron Counties late Tuesday night into Thursday

* High Risk for rip currents begins this evening

* Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected beginning tonight and persisting through Tuesday

* Heavy rainfall could result in flash and areal flooding across parts of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley

* Tropical cyclone developing over the Southwestern portions of the Gulf of Mexico will bring much-needed, beneficial rains to the region

The main focus during the short term forecast period continues to center around a developing tropical cyclone over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has it that a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm could develop by midweek over the bay of Campeche. While the core of this tropical entity is expected to track towards the western Gulf Coast and into Mexico, a flux of deep tropical moisture courtesy of the Central Atlantic Gyre (CAG), will envelope the region in the form of waves/rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

Precipitable water (PWAT) values are forecasted to increase from about 2 inches to 2.5 inches by Tuesday night. To further put this into perspective, that's an increase from +1 to + 2 STDEVs above normal to +3 to +4 STDEVs above normal. These as astronomically high PWAT values and goes to show how much water vapor content will be in the atmosphere. Additionally, the Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) values are expected to be +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal. The influx of moisture in the days ahead will almost serve or act like an Atmospheric River (AR) from the Gulf of Mexico into South/Southeast Texas.

Given the tropical environment in place, rainfall rates are expected to very efficient, that capable of addressing the D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D1 (Moderate Drought) situation over the region. Year to date precipitation deficits will likely flip over to a surplus during/after this event.

That said, the concern for flooding and flash flooding exists.
Despite the high RFC flash flood guidance (FFGs) over the area, given the efficient rainfall rates on top of this area being a floodplain, raises the prospects for flooding and/or flash flooding across the region. The other concern are the marine hazards. Large swells amid gusty winds over the Gulf of Mexico will track towards the South/Southeast Texas Coast beginning as early as tonight.
Coastal flooding could become a concern as early as Tuesday night.
As a result and after collaboration with our neighboring offices, we've decided to issue a High Risk for rip currents beginning this evening and a Coast Flood Watch beginning Tuesday night.

For tonight, expect another warm and muggy night with another round of isolated showers and storms. Overnight lows are expected to be in the mid 70s to near 80F degrees.

During the day on Tuesday, max sfc differential heating coupled with continued influx of deep tropical moisture could help to ignite some diurnal showers and thunderstorms across the region. Currently have 30-50% chance PoPs over the western half of our CWFA and categorical PoPs (55-80%) over the eastern half of the CWFA. Coverage is expected to be isolated to scattered in nature. High temperatures will be slightly cooler than today thanks to increased cloud coverage and the possibility of showers and thunderstorms. Daytime highs are expected to be in the lower 90s east to upper 90s west.

Tuesday night will feature another warm and muggy night with the chance again for another round of showers and thunderstorms.
Overnight lows will be similar to tonight with values in the mid 70s to near 80F degrees.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Key Messages: * Best opportunity for widespread rain is Wednesday, with local persistent downpours producing minor poor-drainage flooding

* Coastal flooding will be sufficient to reach into the dunes on the barrier island around high tide Wednesday and Thursday, and could be sufficient to cause minor damage to unprotected properties

* Small Craft should remain in port through at least Thursday due to rough and building seas and increasing winds

The focus remains on the expected development of the area of low pressure which will likely be some type of hybrid system centered east of southern Tamaulipas (La Pesca to Tampico) at the start of the period, but with primary wind and coastal impacts well north of the center, including the lower Valley. Models continue to be in different camps, particularly the deterministic models, regarding rainfall - with the GFS/Canadian showing a tight gradient between potential widespread flooding rainfall across the Coastal Bend northwest toward San Antonio, while the ECMWF is more of a broad brush of increasing rain and QPF moving from east to west...though still favoring higher amounts along/inland from thd middle and upper Texas coast.

Timing of the rain early in the long term remains somewhat uncertain as well, though all models seem a little delayed with the potential "bigger" rains that could cause local urban/poor drainage flooding, now from late morning through at least late afternoon. Regardless, the theme of Wednesday being the "big" rain day has not changed, and we're still expecting a widespread totals of 3 to 4 inches across the RGV, with up to 6 inches along the northern tier (Hebbronville to Sarita) through midday Thursday.
The key to any flooding will be rainfall rates and rainfall duration...and any slow-moving or persistent tropical banding could easily drop 2 inches per hour for 3 hours and get the floods going with up to 2 or 3 feet of water depth in poorly draining locations.

For now, we're holding off a bit on a Flood Watch given how dry things are and the uncertainty of timing and eventual location of heavier/flooding rainfall vs. welcome rain. We may reconsider this evening/overnight tonight or Tuesday.

The progressive movement of the associated upper low into north central Mexico Thursday should allow rains to taper off from east to west during the afternoon...while this will be the period (Wednesday night through Thursday/Thursday night) that headwaters of the Rio Grande flowing into Falcon reservoir get their long- awaited rains...which will ultimately take their levels "off the floor" by the weekend after so many weeks at new historical lows.

For Friday, backside easterly flow combined with residual moisture and region in between waves will keep things unsettled...and while national blend of model rain chances seem a bit overcooked, the idea of scattered-numerous showers and a few thunderstorms is reasonable with notably lower area-wide rain totals. That said, instability could kick off torrential rains which, if falling on newly saturated ground, would cause additional hyper-local flooding of poor drainage locations.

Saturday through Monday remain highly uncertain, but the bottom line is mainly daytime rain chances continue, even as temperatures climb back to just below average (averages range from 93 to 98 then). With plenty of residual moisture in place, any heating could cause more torrential rainfall and local flooding just about anywhere for short bursts of time.

Finally...we've issued a Coastal Flood Watch to begin at 1 AM Wednesday and continue (for now) through 1 PM Thursday. This is based on the expected rapid and persistent build up of onshore wave energy via higher seas and swells, and model depiction of rapid rises of water levels that could reach near 3 feet above ground level near the shore line. This would ensure water into the dunes early Wednesday and Thursday morning at high tide, and if wave energy is strong enough, minor flood damage.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Through 00z Wednesday....VFR conditions are taking place at all of the terminals under a FEW-SCT deck of cumulus to stratocumulus clouds with bases between 3,000-6,000 feet AGL and unrestricted visibilities. VFR conditions are by and large expected to prevail through the 00z TAF cycle.

The main concern during the 00z period will be the risk for showers and thunderstorms developing. Forecast models continue to suggest the potential for showers and thunderstorms developing later this evening/tonight and then again during the day on Tuesday. These showers and thunderstorms are associated with a plume of deep tropical moisture advecting from a developing tropical cyclone over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Any storms that do move over a TAF site will have the capabilities of briefly reducing cigs/visibilities down to IFR levels. Showers and storms will be isolated through tonight becoming more isolated to scattered during the day on Tuesday. Have Prob30 groups in the TAFs to reflect this potential. Otherwise, expect for VFR conditions to prevail.

Winds will be out of the east 7-15 kts into this evening with occasional gusts between 20-25 kts or so. Winds will subside tonight out of the east at 5-10 kts. During the day on Tuesday, winds are expected to shift out of the northeast at 5-15 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts or so.

MARINE
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Tonight through Tuesday Night: Adverse to hazardous marine conditions are expected tonight through Tuesday night. An enhanced pressure gradient with the developing tropical cyclone over the Southwestern Gulf, will result in increased winds and swells and thus elevated seas. That will trigger a high risk for rip currents beginning this evening. Additionally, coastal flood potential is increasing. As a result, a Coastal Flood Watch has been issued for Tuesday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected tonight through Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Saturday Night...All eyes are on the tropics Wednesday into Thursday for potential warnings - either tropical or even gale - with the tightening gradient well north of any center of circulation/low pressure moving into central/southern Tamaulipas. Gradient gets a boost from the "heat ridge" over the eastern/southeastern U.S. and it covers the entire Texas Gulf waters. Pretty good chance that from Wednesday through Thursday we'll see near or just above gale-force gusts persisting even after any "landfall" of the system to our south...and there's some likelihood that 20 knot and gusty winds could sustain themselves through Saturday. Regardless of the winds, seas will build to 10-12 feet Wednesday and continue into Thursday before gradually subsiding but still remain above 7 feet through Friday...and perhaps longer if some incoming models are correct showing additional low pressure waves developing/ejecting into the Bay of Campeche.

Bottom line? Small craft should remain in port through at least Thursday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

As mentioned above, reservoirs that feed the Lower Rio Grande remain at a combined historical low since both were constituted (created and filled) back in 1954 (Falcon) and 1971 (Amistad).
Values today were at 9.27 percent at Falcon, and 18.96 percent (total share) at Amistad. How much rainfall reaches Amistad's inflow region remains in question, but current forecasts suggest 5 to 10 inches, locally 15 inches, to fall into the headwaters that feed the Rio Grande into Falcon by the end of the week.

This type of efficient rain is sure to create sufficient rises "off the floor" of the historic record lows...though combined values and even those at Falcon will still be very low compared with long-term averages. For more information, go to ibwc.gov or waterdata.ibwc.gov.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 91 79 90 / 40 80 90 100 HARLINGEN 77 92 76 88 / 40 70 80 100 MCALLEN 80 94 79 87 / 20 60 70 100 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 95 78 85 / 0 40 50 90 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 87 81 86 / 50 80 90 100 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 89 78 88 / 50 80 90 100

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Tropical Storm Watch for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455.

Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon for TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455.

Coastal Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455.

High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 6 mi54 minE 17G21 83°F 89°F
BZST2 8 mi54 minE 22G25 84°F 89°F
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 8 mi54 minE 16G21 84°F 89°F
RLIT2 8 mi54 minE 22G27 84°F 89°F
PMNT2 30 mi54 min 84°F 91°F
RSJT2 - 8777812 - Rincon del San Jose; Potrero Lopeno SW, TX 47 mi54 minESE 25G31 83°F 91°F


Wind History for Port Isabel, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KPIL PORT ISABELCAMERON COUNTY,TX 4 sm31 minESE 17G2510 smA Few Clouds84°F75°F74%29.74
KBRO BROWNSVILLE/SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INTL,TX 18 sm31 minE 1010 smA Few Clouds84°F75°F74%29.74
KHRL VALLEY INTL,TX 21 sm32 minE 16G2210 smA Few Clouds82°F75°F79%29.74
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KPIL
   
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Wind History graph: PIL
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Port Isabel, Texas
   
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Port Isabel
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Mon -- 03:10 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:20 AM CDT     1.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 04:33 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:10 PM CDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:23 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Port Isabel, Texas, Tide feet
12
am
0.7
1
am
0.8
2
am
1
3
am
1
4
am
1.1
5
am
1.1
6
am
1
7
am
1
8
am
1
9
am
1
10
am
0.9
11
am
0.9
12
pm
0.9
1
pm
0.8
2
pm
0.6
3
pm
0.4
4
pm
0.2
5
pm
0
6
pm
-0.1
7
pm
-0.1
8
pm
-0.1
9
pm
-0
10
pm
0.2
11
pm
0.4


Tide / Current for Port Isabel, Texas (2)
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Port Isabel
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Mon -- 03:10 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:43 AM CDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:03 AM CDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:24 PM CDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:33 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:15 PM CDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:23 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Port Isabel, Texas (2), Tide feet
12
am
0.7
1
am
0.9
2
am
1
3
am
1.1
4
am
1.1
5
am
1.1
6
am
1.1
7
am
1.1
8
am
1.1
9
am
1.1
10
am
1.1
11
am
1.1
12
pm
1.1
1
pm
1.1
2
pm
1
3
pm
0.8
4
pm
0.6
5
pm
0.3
6
pm
0.1
7
pm
0
8
pm
0
9
pm
0.1
10
pm
0.2
11
pm
0.4


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of gulf of mexico   
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Brownsville, TX,




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