Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orangetree, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 408 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Forecast remains on track this afternoon, with scattered showers and thunderstorms largely focused over Palm Beach County and the Lake region. The 18Z MFL sounding and recent ACARS data show a relatively dry mid-level environment, with PWAT values hovering in the 1.8 to 2.0 inch range. Combined with mid-level ridging continuing to anchor over the region, this drier air aloft should keep overall convective coverage and intensity limited through the remainder of the afternoon before tapering off after sunset. For tomorrow, latest guidance remains in good agreement maintaining an overall drier pattern across South Florida. Gusty southwesterly flow during the day will drive higher diurnal temperatures across the eastern half of the peninsula. The NBM's 50th percentile (most likely) high temperature forecast for tomorrow highlights peak ambient temperature values in the mid 90s across most of the east coast metro urban core, with lower 90s along the east coast. With a southwesterly flow regime and lack of convection, the forecast could trend closer to the 75th percentile, which features the potential of peak values in the upper 90s across inland suburbs of the east coast metro. These values could come close to break record high temperature records for the date. Maximum apparent temperature values could reach the 106-110 F range across much of the region.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 419 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The synoptic pattern for the short term will be dominated by increasing mid-lvl ridging over the area, while broad sfc high pressure remains anchored over the Gulf region. Meanwhile, sfc obs and model analyses describe a semi-stationary frontal boundary stretching across the SE CONUS, with a strong moisture gradient between the front and the ridging over the area. Most of the deeper moisture remains clustered over the northern half of the Florida peninsula, while SoFlo continues to receive the influx of drier air, enhanced by additional SAL dust. Pressure gradients will also increase today and bring some gusty periods in the 20-25mph range this afternoon.

Per latest ensembles and high-res solutions, Thursday seem to be the driest day of the short term. For today, chances of rain will be highest around the Lake region, since it will be closer to the aforementioned pool of moisture to the north. POPs/Wx coverage of 40- 50% are in place for the northern-most counties, while a much drier profile will prevail for the rest of SoFlo; generally in the 10-30% range. Decreasing forecast parameters like PWATs, possibly down to 1.5-1.6", and DCAPE below 700 J/KG, will combine with stronger mid- lvl capping due to the increasing SAL intrusion in order to establish a significant suppression of daytime storm development potential. However, even with less thunderstorm activity, the persisting weak steering flow will again keep potential for localized flooding, mainly with slow-moving storms.

With less cloud cover and shower activity, temperatures this afternoon will hit the low-mid 90s across much of SoFlo, and heat index values potentially reaching the 106-110F range. Confidence is increasing about experiencing durations of those values, therefore, a Heat Advisory will be issued, mainly for the coastal metro areas.
Morning lows will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s near the coasts and low to mid 70s inland.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 419 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Long range models continue to adjust their solutions as we approach the weekend period. And while some additional adjustments are likely, it seems the consensus is trending towards a surge of moisture and a return to a more active weather pattern.

An upper-lvl trough will deepen over the E/SE CONUS, with a series of short-wave impulses traveling along its base. These features will push some of the deeper moisture southward and into the area, mainly between Saturday and Monday, and promote increasing instability and shower/thunderstorm activity. This will also limit the SAL capping, which will remain mainly confined to the southern-most areas of SoFlo starting on Saturday. Latest NBM follows the rest of guidance with a surge in POPs into the 60-70% range north of I-75, and 30-50% elsewhere on Saturday, and with increasing support for strong afternoon storms. A similar weather pattern should continue through early next week, although the location of highest POPs may change depending on how the low-lvl flow adjusts.

Temperatures will remain above normals, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s, and morning lows in the mid 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Mainly VFR conditions prevail with gusty southwesterly flow and the continuation of scattered SHRA/TSRA across the region. Winds will lessen overnight, becoming L/V through sunrise, and picking up once again tomorrow out of the southwest.

MARINE
Issued at 419 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Moderate west-southwest winds continue during the next several days, with possible periods of advisory-level winds over the Atlantic offshore waters today. An SCA will be in effect for those waters starting early this afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each day, which may result in brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. In general, seas are expected to remain around 2 ft, but a surge to 4-5 ft is possible over the Atlantic offshore waters today as winds become gusty.

BEACHES
Issued at 419 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A high risk of rip currents is in effect today for all beaches of Collier county until this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 79 94 78 94 / 0 20 0 20 West Kendall 75 94 75 94 / 0 10 0 20 Opa-Locka 78 95 78 95 / 0 20 0 30 Homestead 77 93 77 93 / 0 10 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 79 93 79 92 / 0 10 0 30 N Ft Lauderdale 79 94 79 93 / 0 10 0 40 Pembroke Pines 79 95 79 94 / 0 20 0 30 West Palm Beach 77 94 77 93 / 0 20 10 60 Boca Raton 78 94 77 93 / 0 20 10 50 Naples 80 91 80 91 / 10 10 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068>070-072-074- 168-172-173.

High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ670-671.

GM...None.