Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orangetree, FL

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Guidance consensus show a drier day today with GFS being the more aggressive solution in terms of decreasing POPs across SoFlo. The brunt of the SAL should begin moving into the area today and drive chances of rain into the 20-40% range. NAM pushes sea breezes inland early this afternoon, which should help in keeping coastal areas drier than interior SoFlo. SPC keeps the risk category for SoFlo as regular thunderstorms today, but as in the previous two days, guidance still suggests some DCAPE around 1K j/kg, along with lingering PWATs in the 1.4-1.8" range. which among other factors may be enough for scattered showers and a few strong storms, mainly inland and western SoFlo later this afternoon and evening.

Heat-related impacts also continue today with heat index values again close to or at advisory levels. This will be more likely over areas where convective activity becomes further suppressed, with Heat Index forecast for today showing possible max values in the 105- 109F range. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11AM to 7PM EDT, focusing on coastal metro areas and portions of interior Collier county. People should avoid risking heat illness impacts by remaining hydrated and in cool locations, especially during the afternoon peak hours.

For Thursday, conditions should result in the driest day so far as the SAL remains over the region. POPs/Wx coverage drops to 10% or less for much of SoFlo with single digits for the coastal areas.
With less cloud cover and shower activity, temperatures will hit the mid-upper 90s, and even approach 100 over interior Collier county.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Models show overall high pressure dominating the region, with the west Atl mid-lvl ridge extending into the SE CONUS and a sfc ridge just E of the area. Prevailing weak pressure gradients will result in generally light to moderate winds through Friday, with sea breezes developing and push inland each afternoon. The SAL should linger over the area through Friday. However, latest long range solutions are hinting at an earlier recovery of the airmass as a trough develops across the E CONUS and weakening the high pressure by Friday. This also helps in enhancing a little the overall southerly flow Friday afternoon, resulting in moisture filtering into SoFlo and POPs/Wx jumping back into the 40-60% range.

The overall synoptic scenario won't change much through early next week, with Saturday so far being the day with the highest moisture intrusion. Latest NBM came with up to 70% POPs/scattered to numerous thunderstorms for interior and eastern SoFlo Saturday afternoon. Sea breezes should develop each day and drive the development of deeper convection.

In terms of temperatures, highs through the long term will hit the mid-upper 90s each day. Heat advisory potential will be explored each day. Limit strenuous outdoor activities and take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. For more on what you can do to prepare for and mitigate heat illness, visit ready.gov/heat.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 719 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR to start the 12Z TAF period. SE winds around 10 kts today with a westerly Gulf breeze this afternoon at APF. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening mostly over the interior, but may drift towards the metro late in the day so may need to amend later if necessary.

MARINE
Issued at 410 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A moderate southeasterly breeze will continue across most of the local waters through the end of the work week. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters where winds will become west southwest each afternoon as the Gulf breeze develops. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 95 80 95 81 / 10 10 20 10 West Kendall 96 77 96 78 / 10 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 96 79 97 81 / 10 10 20 10 Homestead 94 79 95 80 / 10 10 20 0 Fort Lauderdale 94 81 95 81 / 10 10 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 94 80 95 81 / 20 10 10 10 Pembroke Pines 97 80 98 82 / 20 10 20 10 West Palm Beach 94 78 95 79 / 20 10 10 10 Boca Raton 92 79 93 80 / 10 10 10 10 Naples 95 78 94 80 / 10 10 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ068>070-072-074-168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.