Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Highland Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:38PM Friday August 23, 2019 2:31 AM EDT (06:31 UTC) Moonrise 11:49PMMoonset 12:36PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Highland Beach, FL
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location: 26.19, -77.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 230535
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
135 am edt Fri aug 23 2019

Aviation
A tropical disturbance with a weak center of rotation located over
the bahamas, generally southeast of mia this morning, will bring
increased chances for +ra and possibly a few +ts this afternoon to
the entire area. Some of the convection may also bring some brief
ifr conditions across the area. As convection weakens tonight,
conditions should improve. Currently, the impact south florida
looks to be mainly increased chances of heavy rain over the next
few days.

Prev discussion issued 854 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
update...

previous forecast appears to be on track. Activity has largely
died down over land this evening, but showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms will remain over the atlantic waters and east coast
overnight.

Prev discussion... Issued 442 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
discussion...

tonight...

showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing across much of the
area this afternoon should continue to push southwestward through
the evening before gradually diminishing. Additional showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible overnight,
particularly over the atlantic waters and east coast region.

Friday through Sunday...

heavy rainfall possible Friday through this weekend...

tomorrow through the weekend should be fairly interesting as a
trough of low pressure currently over the bahamas pushes
northwestward across the area. A lot of uncertainty lies with this
system, which the national hurricane center has given a 10% chance
for development over 48 hours and a 30% chance over the next 5
days. Regardless of development, the primary hazard to south
florida with this system will be the potential for heavy rainfall
with periods of showers and thunderstorms throughout the weekend.

Super moist air overhead, as evidenced by this morning's sounding
(2.3 inch pw) and the GOES satellite, will stick around and
perhaps get even more moist as the trough drags additional
tropical moisture into the area. Models still don't have a great
handle on this system, with the ECMWF keeping the feature just to
our east as it slides northward up the coast. The GFS has a much
different and very interesting solution, where it appears the
mid- level and low-level circulations get separated as the mid-
level circulation gets pulled northward while the low-level
circulation continues westward across the southern peninsula. The
gfs favors a weaker overall disturbance, but this solution would
actually translate into more rainfall for south florida as the
trough would initiate several rounds of widespread showers and
thunderstorms. With pws as high as they are, any showers and
storms that develop will be capable of producing heavy rainfall
and possibly some minor flooding in urban areas. As such, the
weather prediction center has placed south florida in a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall on Friday.

The ECMWF solution favors a slightly stronger disturbance,
holding itself together as it pushes northward as one unit. While
showers and thunderstorms will still be possible with this
solution, the coverage would likely be lower as we could be
positioned in the "dry slot" of the system on the west side. Due
to this uncertainty, wpc is only carrying south florida in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Friday and Friday night.

If it looks like the weaker wetter solution is coming to fruition,
a marginal risk for excessive rainfall would likely be required
for all of south florida Saturday and perhaps Sunday as well. The
possibility of increasing the risk of excessive rainfall up to a
slight along the east coast metro areas has also been discussed
since those areas have received a lot of rainfall within the last
month already. In that case, a targeted flood watch may need to be
considered at that time. Ultimately, these decisions will have to
be made once we have a better handle on the strength track of
this trough of low pressure and are able to see how much rainfall
we receive in the first round or two on Friday.

Early next week...

some uncertainty is present in the forecast for early next week
due to the expected arrival of a surface trough approaching from
the east late this week and over the weekend; a feature that the
model guidance has been struggling to resolve thus far. There
should be plenty of sufficient moisture still present over south
florida as the surface trough lifts northward and begins to
interact with a stalling frontal boundary over the southeastern
u.S. Early in the week. Expect southerly to southwesterly winds
throughout south florida to help focus the majority of convection
over the interior lake okeechobee region as well as palm beach
county.

Late next week...

once the surface trough progresses out of the vicinity of south
florida, expect the synoptic pattern to return to a more typical
summertime one, with atlantic high pressure building into the
peninsula. During this time, winds will become more light and
southerly, allowing for the formation of both atlantic and gulf
sea breezes. Most of the convection should be driven by a
combination of sea breeze and thunderstorm boundary interactions
and diurnal heating. Storm coverage is expected to be greatest
over the lake okeechobee interior region as well as the gulf coast
during this period.

Marine...

generally easterly to southeasterly winds are expected for the
next few days, becoming more southerly by the end of the weekend.

A trough of low pressure currently over the bahamas will bring
periods of showers and thunderstorms to all local waters. Gusty
winds and locally higher seas will be possible in and near any
showers and thunderstorms.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 88 77 90 77 70 60 60 40
fort lauderdale 88 78 89 79 70 50 50 40
miami 89 77 89 78 70 50 50 40
naples 89 76 89 77 70 50 50 30

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 32 mm
discussion... 32 mm
marine... 32 mm
aviation... 13


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boca Raton, Boca Raton Airport, FL155 mi3.7 hrsE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F75°F74%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBCT

Wind History from BCT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------E6E5E4E8E8SE14E6E9NE11E8NE14
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1 day ago--------------CalmCalmCalmSE6E6
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Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas
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Pelican Harbour
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Fri -- 12:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:46 AM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:51 AM EDT     1.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:18 PM EDT     3.58 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:55 PM EDT     1.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.83.13.232.62.11.71.41.31.51.82.42.93.43.63.53.22.82.31.91.61.51.61.9

Tide / Current Tables for Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas
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Nassau
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Fri -- 12:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:26 AM EDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:29 AM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:06 PM EDT     3.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:24 PM EDT     1.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.82.72.52.11.61.2111.21.72.22.73.13.23.12.82.31.81.41.21.21.41.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.