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AMZ075 Northern Bahamas From 24n To 27n- 1027 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Overnight..E to se winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in ne to E swell.
Sun..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in E swell.
Sun night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Scattered showers and isolated tstms.
Mon..In the open atlc waters, S to sw winds 10 to 15 kt, shifting to nw 15 to 20 kt early in the evening. Elsewhere, nw to N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers.
Mon night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Tue..NE to E winds 20 to 25 kt in the open atlc waters, and ne 20 to 25 kt elsewhere. Seas 7 to 10 ft in ne swell.
Tue night..NE to E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in ne swell.
Wed..NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in ne swell.
Wed night..NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft in the open atlc waters, and 6 to 8 ft elsewhere.
Thu..NE to E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft in the open atlc waters, and 7 to 11 ft elsewhere.
Thu night..E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft in the open atlc waters, and 9 to 13 ft elsewhere.

FXUS62 KMFL 100536 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1236 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1202 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

The airmass over South Florida will continue to moisten as we remain on the periphery of Atlantic surface high pressure which will permit the southeasterly to southerly wind flow this weekend. Aloft, a mid- level low crossing the upper midwest and an amplifying mid-level longwave trough moving into the eastern third of the country will propel a cold front across the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards the area on Sunday.

Convection today should remain mostly showers with a focus along a boundary located over the Atlantic waters off Palm Beach County. As this warm front retreats northward heading into Sunday, rain chances will generally diminish until diurnal heating peaks on Sunday afternoon ahead of the cold front. Some thunderstorm activity is possible, although coverage will be highest over the local waters.
Localized heavy rainfall is also possible, particularly along the east coast metro where coastal influences could contribute. The frontal boundary is expected to pass through the area Sunday night into Monday, and some showers and thunderstorms will linger and continue into the overnight period.

Highs today and tomorrow will reach the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Models remain in fair agreement regarding a FROPA Sunday night into monday, bringing deteriorating conditions across the area.
Model PWATs continue to gradually increase to values near 2 inches Sunday night, which will support enhanced convection over the coastal waters first, and then spreading over land. Latest POPs remain in the 40 to 60% chance, with a chance of thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon and through the evening hours. Can't rule out a few strong cells, especially along the Atlantic coastline where coastal convergence may promote deeper convection.

The front clears SoFlo Monday morning with high pressure building in its wake. Expect cooler/drier air advection from the north, with daytime temperatures remaining in the 70s on Monday afternoon.
Nighttime lows should drop into the low-mid 50s inland and low-mid 60s elsewhere.

Long range solutions keep the decaying boundary lingering near the Florida Keys, nearly stationary through late Tuesday, and keeping enhanced pressure gradients across the southern half of the peninsula. Therefore, expect periods of breezy and gusty northeasterly winds, especially in the afternoon hours. By late Wednesday and through the end of the week, models suggest another surge of moisture as the decaying boundary retrogrades across the area. A stratiform deck should accompany the returning front, with POPs jumping back into the 50 or even 60 percent range, especially around the east coast, on Thursday. Latest ensemble members show possible PWATs of up to 2 inches Thursday afternoon, and potential for isolated max QPF values of up to 4 inches. But since it is too early to embrace any particular solution, the forecast philosophy will remain on the conservative side in terms of QPF, and continue to adjust accordingly as new guidance becomes available.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Generally VFR through much of the period though some showers linger around PBI. As the front approaches later today, shower and thunderstorm chances increase with the potential for bouts of sub-VFR at terminals directly impacted by convection. Short-fused AMDs for sub-MVFR cigs/vsbys may be needed. The front should pass APF late in the TAF period and pass the east coast terminals in the extended TAF period; exact timing is still uncertain.

MARINE
Issued at 1202 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Gusty easterly to southeasterly winds today will become more southerly to southwesterly on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Showers and some thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through the period, particularly over the local waters. Strong winds in the wake of the cold front could allow hazardous marine conditions to develop by Monday and linger through much of the week.

BEACHES
Issued at 1202 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

A high risk of rip currents will persist through at least the weekend along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida thanks to a southeasterly wind flow. Accordingly, the Rip Current Statement for

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 83 66 75 65 / 20 40 10 10 West Kendall 84 63 75 61 / 20 40 10 10 Opa-Locka 84 65 75 64 / 20 40 10 10 Homestead 83 65 76 64 / 20 40 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 83 65 74 66 / 20 50 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 83 64 74 65 / 20 40 10 10 Pembroke Pines 84 64 74 63 / 20 40 10 10 West Palm Beach 83 62 72 64 / 20 40 10 10 Boca Raton 83 64 74 65 / 20 50 10 10 Naples 82 59 71 54 / 20 30 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Pelican Harbour
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Sat -- 03:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:01 AM EST     3.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:28 AM EST     1.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:45 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:16 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:16 PM EST     2.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:18 PM EST     0.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

Nassau
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:46 AM EST     2.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:05 AM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:48 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:03 PM EST     2.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:20 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:56 PM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

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