Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Highland Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:22PM Thursday December 12, 2019 5:36 AM EST (10:36 UTC) Moonrise 5:56PMMoonset 7:03AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Highland Beach, FL
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location: 26.19, -77.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 120840 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 340 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Short Term (Today Through Friday Night). Radar, satellite and sfc analyses data suggests a frontal boundary slowly pushing southward and across the area during the early morning hours. Associated showers with embedded thunderstorms have been affecting much of the Miami metro areas, producing mainly localized heavy rain at times.

The enhanced low-level moisture, reflected in the increased PWAT of nearly 2 inches on MFL 00z sounding, and the influence of the lingering boundary will support additional showers and a few storms today. Best chances for rain and storms will reside over Palm Beach county and the Lake Okechobee areas as models depict the aforementioned boundary begin to slowly migrate northward today while transitioning into a warm front.

U/A Sounding and model sounding still depict a solid layer of dry air aloft, which should continue to hamper vertical TCu development, thus, will keep mention of thunder in the grids to a minimum attm and wait for upcoming guidance before going any higher. Also, patchy fog will be possible until sunrise across most of the interior areas and the Gulf coast as the low levels remain saturated. However, with a lack of better radiational cooling due to persisting cloud cover, any fog that develops should remain patchy and quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise.

Model solutions show fair agreement in continuing to lift the remnants of the front back to our north, while a low pressure system deepens over the north Gulf area. With this synoptic scenario, SoFlo remains under generally moist E/SE flow, with at least scattered showers through Friday night. With the absence of a clear lifting mechanism for deep convection to develop, thunderstorm activity is not a concern for Friday, except over the Atlantic coastal waters.

With the dominant warm and moist airmass in place, along with persistent extended periods of cloud cover, expect temperatures to remain warm with afternoon highs in the low-mid 80s and morning lows in the 60s.

Long Term (Saturday Through Wednesday Night). A cold front will push through the area during the day Saturday as the surface low pressure surges quickly northeastward up the Eastern Seaboard. Some showers will be possible with this front, with the better chances over the waters and across the Lake region. Thunderstorms are not expected with this front at this time since there's not a ton of upper-level support, and instability should be low given the time of day. However, a few thunderstorms could be possible if the timing of the front ends up being later and shifts the activity into the afternoon hours.

Only slightly drier and cooler conditions are expected in the wake of the front due to the origin of the system being over the western Gulf. This small respite from the heat and humidity will be short-lived, as winds become easterly again by Sunday night as surface high pressure over the Southeast CONUS pushes quickly eastward over the Atlantic in response to a deepening surface low over the Plains. Dry conditions are expected across the area Sunday and Monday, with moisture gradually rebounding through early next week. Some showers will be possible starting Monday night across the Atlantic waters and East Coast with breezy E to SE flow.

Rain chances begin to increase on Tuesday with increasing moisture as a cold front pushes into the state. This cold front is forecast to push through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with a band of showers and possibly thunderstorms along it. While both the ECMWF and GFS both have similar timing of the front at the moment, they have very different mid to upper-level support and therefore different strengths of the front and the convection along it. The GFS shows a weaker front with the upper- level support largely missing as the main longwave trough ejecting off to the northeast. The ECMWF has the main longwave trough in roughly the same position as the GFS, but in this solution there is a pretty substantial shortwave trough rotating across in the wake of the main trough. This extra push of mid to upper-level support causes the front to be stronger with more robust convection along it. A stronger front would also produce stronger northerly winds in the wake of the front and therefore stronger cold air advection into the area. If the weaker solution becomes more likely, the timing of the front could also slow down given the lack of mid to upper level support. Forecast generally straddles the guidance at the moment, with forecast low temperatures in the wake of the front Wednesday night ranging from the upper 40s west of the lake to near 60 right along the East Coast.

Marine. Hazardous boating conditions will continue to develop today over the coastal waters, with the Atlantic likely requiring a Small Craft Advisory for at least the waters off Palm Beach county with the arrival of a north swell, along with winds to around 20 knots. These conditions are expected to peak tonight, then begin to subside on Friday as the swells decrease and the winds veer to the SE and weaken. Generally benign weather is expected for the weekend.

Aviation. Although VFR should prevail for the most part during the next 24 hours, scattered to numerous showers will develop today, especially around PBI, FXE and FLL due to the influence of a lingering frontal boundary. Not confident enough to include thunder attm, but will keep carrying reduced vis/cigs with heavy showers in tempos or prob30 groups for today. Winds remain between east- northeast and southeast near 10 knots.

Beach Forecast. An increasing northerly swell will bring increased rip current risk and possibly rough surf to the Atlantic beaches on through tonight, especially for Palm Beach County. This swell will begin to subside on Friday, but at least moderate rip current risk will probably linger then.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 79 68 80 66 / 70 30 50 40 Fort Lauderdale 80 70 80 69 / 60 30 40 40 Miami 81 69 81 69 / 50 20 40 40 Naples 81 65 80 67 / 30 0 20 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GMZ676.

Marine . 17/AR Aviation . 17/AR Beach Forecast . 17/AR Short Term . 17/AR Long Term . 32/MM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KBCT

Wind History from BCT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------SE4445S10SE6
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Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas
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Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 01:30 AM EST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:02 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:54 AM EST     3.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:25 PM EST     0.67 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:16 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:15 PM EST     3.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.70.711.72.43.23.63.83.63.12.41.610.70.71.11.72.42.93.13.12.72

Tide / Current Tables for Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas
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Nassau
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 01:07 AM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:36 AM EST     3.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:57 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:21 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:58 PM EST     2.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.10.20.71.42.22.83.23.32.92.31.50.80.30.10.30.81.422.52.62.421.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.