Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 2:42 PM   Moonset 2:23 AM

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AMZ075 Northern Bahamas From 24n To 27n- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.Tonight - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Wed - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft atlc exposures, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Wed night - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Thu - S to sw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Thu night - NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Fri night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat - NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

AMZ005
No data

FXUS62 KMFL 181723 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 123 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

A hot and humid day is on tap across much of South Florida as a mid- level ridge continues to slide across the area, being pushed along by a shortwave moving along the northern Gulf states. The ridge will continue to keep conditions mostly dry, however, scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible for coastal locations, primarily on the Atlantic side as the sea breeze boundary pushes inland in the afternoon and early evening hours. Steep low-level lapse rates and enhanced shear along the sea breeze could support stronger storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and small hail, although is viewed as unlikely.

With south-southwest flow and warming air mass from the overhead ridge, high temperatures today will peak in the mid to upper 90s across much of South Florida, with heat index values up to 110 possible. Heat Advisories have been issued for all counties due to the hazardous conditions. Anyone sensitive to heat should plan to avoid extended time outside, and if you are required to be outside, take cooling breaks and stay hydrated.

On Sunday, the aforementioned shortwave and associated frontal boundary will slowly spread over the Florida Peninsula, kicking the ridge offshore into the Atlantic. This will lead to greater instability and better chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area, especially during the afternoon and evening hours when the sea breeze develops. The extra instability assisted by the shortwave along with the trough ushering in cooler temps aloft (-8 to -10 deg C) could enhance severe thunderstorm potential. Strong to damaging wind gusts due to storm strength or downbursts plus small to large hail will all be possible. Conditions will be monitored tonight for adequate assessment of the hazards with any convective storms tomorrow. Overall, the highest chances for showers and storms will be in northern portions of South Florida as low level flow will be southerly. PoPs around 60-70% are forecasted for Hendry, Glades, Palm Beach and Broward counties with mostly 40-50% PoPs elsewhere further south. Additionally, even with the increased cloud cover and a slightly cooler air mass compared to Saturday, heat will yet again be a concern as south- southwest flow persists over South Florida for much of the day ahead of the frontal boundary. High temperatures will be in the low to mid-90s, with heat index values ranging from 103-108. Heat advisories may be needed yet again for certain areas.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 227 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Increased rain chances and a bit of relief from the heat to start the long-term period as a mid-level shortwave trough settles over Florida and the Southeast US, and a surface front finally pushes across South Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday and Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours, with locally heavy rain possibly leading to a few instances of minor urban flooding across the East Coast metro. A few storms may also be on the strong to severe side, with damaging wind gusts from localized downbursts being the main threat.

From mid to late week, a mid-level ridge will slowly build in from over the Gulf, while the mid-level trough lingers just east of the Florida Peninsula. While chances for showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease, there will still be daily chances during the afternoon and early evening hours, primarily driven by diurnal sea-breeze convection.

Temperatures will gradually trend cooler each day from early to midweek, and rebound towards the end of the week as the ridging builds back in. Monday's highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with mid to upper 80s on Wednesday, and back into the low 90s again by Friday. Overnight lows will remain warm, in the mid to upper 70s each day. While these temperatures are above normal, they will not lead to the heat concerns that we have seen for much of the past week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
Restrictions due to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon over the east coast terminals between 18 to 00Z. SE winds are expected on the east coast for the afternoon sustained 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts while winds will become SW at KAPF.
Winds become variable overnight for a while but then increase out of the SW late in the night as a disturbance approaches the general vicinity. In addition, the disturbance could spark some local shower development in the late night and early morning tomorrow, thus VCSH has been introduced in the morning after 08Z.



MARINE
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Mainly benign conditions over the weekend with light to moderate southwesterly to southerly flow. There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend, mainly over the Atlantic waters, which could create locally chaotic seas at times and gusty winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 81 93 77 91 / 20 70 40 70 West Kendall 78 95 74 93 / 10 60 40 60 Opa-Locka 80 95 76 92 / 20 70 40 70 Homestead 80 94 77 91 / 20 50 50 60 Fort Lauderdale 80 91 76 89 / 20 70 50 70 N Ft Lauderdale 79 93 75 90 / 20 70 50 70 Pembroke Pines 80 95 77 93 / 20 70 40 70 West Palm Beach 76 92 73 89 / 20 70 50 70 Boca Raton 78 93 74 90 / 30 70 50 70 Naples 79 91 77 89 / 20 50 40 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168- 172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.

Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:12 AM EDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:20 AM EDT     1.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:40 PM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

Nassau
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:57 AM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:03 AM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:30 PM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:42 PM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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