Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pine Ridge, FL

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 8:01PM Monday August 19, 2019 12:45 PM EDT (16:45 UTC) Moonrise 9:42PMMoonset 9:23AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 917 Am Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Rest of today..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms
showers likely
Tuesday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and east southeast 5 to 10 knots offshore. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1031 Am Cdt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis..A light to moderate wind flow, mainly from the southwest, will persist through the remainder of the week as a broad surface ridge of high pressure continues to stretch from the western atlantic to the north central gulf. Winds and seas will be higher near scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms through much of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pine Ridge, FL
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location: 26.21, -81.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 191438
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
1038 am edt Mon aug 19 2019

Update
Low-level easterly flow prevails this morning as we remain between
the atlantic ridge axis to our north and inverted troughing over
the eastern bahamas. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue
pushing inland from the atlantic waters this morning with the
dominant atlantic breeze concentrating afternoon convection over
inland south florida and the gulf coast region. Mesoscale and
sounding analyses reveal the possibility for a few strong
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening given the slight uptick
in mid upper flow juxtaposed with slightly drier air aloft and
good surface heating low-level lapse rates. Although conditions
seem mostly supportive of special weather advisory criteria
type storms, a marginally severe wind gust or two is possible in
any taller thunderstorm cores provided sufficient precipitation
loading. Lightning and localized heavy rainfall minor flooding
remain concerns as well, particularly towards the gulf coast.

Updated pops and sky cover to reflect current trends and the
latest output from the convection allowing mesoscale models.

Otherwise the forecast is in great shape and no major changes are
anticipated through the early afternoon hours.

Prev discussion issued 750 am edt Mon aug 19 2019
update...

atlantic showers pushing inland may briefly impact the eastern
terminals through late morning. While a brief visibility reduction
is possible, prevailingVFR is anticipated. Afternoon shower storm
coverage should favor interior and gulf coast areas, so left vcts
out of the eastern TAF sites for now. Prevailing easterly winds
will continue, becoming more light and variable tonight for inland
areas.

Prev discussion... Issued 330 am edt Mon aug 19 2019
discussion...

today: the leading edge of the next moisture push associated with a
low level trough moving through the bahamas is currently moving
through the central bahamas early this morning. It's already kicking
off a few more showers and storms over the local atlantic than we
saw this time yesterday, with a gradual uptick expected as we head
towards daybreak.

Today will be a transitional day as the western atlantic ridge axis
continues to lift northwards and we remain under the diminishing
influence of the saharan air layer that was in place on Sunday.

Coverage today looks higher than yesterday due to the influence of
the approaching trough, though it will play more of a factor on
Tuesday, as well as cooling temperatures aloft.

The atlantic showers and storms will move into the coast through the
morning hours, with the better coverage shifting west as the east
coast seabreeze moves inland. As with yesterday, convection will
pile up along the gulf coast and SW florida interior.

Tonight and Tuesday: the perturbations of the western atlantic ridge
will be the largest influence on the weather across south florida
through the upcoming week. The axis of the ridge will generally be
to our north, putting us in prevailing deep, though somewhat light,
east southeast flow.

A few factors will bring a trend of higher coverage of showers
and storms as we go into midweek.

First, the saharan dust that was in place will move fully westward,
allowing a re-moistening of the local airmass with pwats creeping
back towards 2". This moistening will be brought upon by the second
factor, the combination of a westward moving tropical wave passing
to our south Monday night and the low level trough on it's northern
end moving into the fl peninsula by Tuesday morning. These features
have a midlevel reflection that will erode the western end of the
ridge, bringing in a little cooler temperatures aloft.

The highest rain chances of the week will likely be Tuesday as the
influence of the above factors are maximized. We will still see a
diurnal maximum of activity in the afternoon with daytime heating
and diffuse east coast seabreeze. While the highest coverage will be
across inland SW florida and the gulf coast, locally heavy rain may
be a concern for all locations.

Wednesday through Friday: the latter half of the week looks to favor
a return to more seasonable scattered showers and storms once the
wave and trough round the ridge and pass to our west. The ridge will
weaken as we end the week, but still exert enough influence to keep
us in prevailing light easterly flow. This will continue to push the
highest coverage towards the gulf coast and inland SW florida each
afternoon. Convection will generally be diurnally driven, developing
along the seabreezes in the late morning and afternoons.

Next weekend: another tropical wave, currently located around 35w,
is forecast to enter the picture as we go into next weekend. Models
have this feature tracking a little further north, potentially
having more direct impacts in terms of a deep moisture push. Exactly
when and in what shape it arrives will determine when enhanced rain
chances may return to south florida. For now though, scattered to
locally numerous showers and storms will be the forecast.

Marine...

prevailing east southeast winds will be in place for most of the
upcoming week with the atlantic ridge axis to the north of the
region. Speeds will generally be 10kts or less, though occasional 10-
15kts is possible across the atlantic. The main boating concern will
be showers and storms across the local waters each day. Prevailing
flow will lead to more storms pushing off the gulf coast in the
afternoons and evenings. Expect locally higher winds and waves near
any convection.

Hydrology...

a lack of widespread coverage the last couple of days has allowed
the ground to tolerate heavy rainfall a bit better. Locally heavy
rainfall anywhere in south florida could still cause minor flooding
over the coming days, but the prevailing flow will tend to
concentrate afternoon showers and storms towards gulf coast and
southwest florida.

Fisheating creek at palmdale continues to slowly rise and is
currently at 6.38 feet this morning. The forecast trend is an
expectation for fisheating creek to gradually rise over the coming
days as additional rainfall falls across the basin. At this time,
the forecast remains for the creek to stay below flood stage at
palmdale.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 91 77 90 77 20 30 40 30
fort lauderdale 90 79 89 79 20 30 40 40
miami 91 79 90 78 20 30 50 30
naples 94 76 92 75 50 30 60 60

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Update... 34 spm
discussion... 88 alm
marine... 88 alm
aviation... 34 spm
hydrology... 88 alm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 5 mi46 min 89°F 87°F1018.3 hPa (+0.0)
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 12 mi61 min E 8.9 91°F 1019 hPa79°F
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 14 mi112 min E 6 G 9.9 86°F 1019.4 hPa
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 30 mi46 min NE 5.1 G 7 87°F 84°F1018.6 hPa (+0.4)
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 45 mi46 min 88°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 48 mi46 min 90°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL23 mi53 minE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F75°F65%1018.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E8E3E4E3E4--E4N4E3NE5----E8S3SE6W9W10W7N5NW4--E3N5
1 day agoCalmSE4--E5--E4NE4--SE5E3SE5--S7S9--SW6SW9
G14
SW13S10SW8----NE8E6
2 days ago--E4S9S6SW10--------SE5--------SE9S4CalmW5--W11
G16
--NW4N4--

Tide / Current Tables for Naples, Naples Bay, north end, Florida
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Naples
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Mon -- 03:46 AM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:49 AM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:46 PM EDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:09 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.82.42.82.92.72.21.71.20.90.811.422.52.932.82.31.71.10.70.50.6

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:47 AM EDT     1.12 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:23 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:44 AM EDT     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:55 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:47 PM EDT     1.10 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:47 PM EDT     -0.94 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:42 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.511.10.90.50.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.400.611.10.80.4-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.8-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.