Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pine Ridge, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:38PM Sunday December 15, 2019 12:25 AM EST (05:25 UTC) Moonrise 9:15PMMoonset 10:13AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 944 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Rest of tonight..North northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday..East winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Period 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas less than 2 feet nearshore and 2 to 3 feet offshore. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots nearshore and southeast 10 to 15 knots offshore. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..NEarshore, south winds 5 knots becoming east northeast around 5 knots late in the evening, then becoming north with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Offshore, southwest winds around 5 knots becoming north 5 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots late in the evening. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Wednesday..NEarshore, north winds 5 to 15 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon, seas 2 to 3 feet. Offshore, north winds 15 to 25 knots, seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..North northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots nearshore and north northeast 20 to 25 knots offshore. Seas 2 to 3 feet nearshore and 4 to 6 feet with occasional to 8 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots nearshore and northeast 20 to 25 knots offshore. Seas 2 to 3 feet nearshore and 4 to 6 feet with occasional to 8 feet offshore. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1023 Pm Cst Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis..Light west to southwest winds will become more southerly overnight tonight into Sunday. Areas of dense fog possible over portions of the marine area tonight and early Sunday. A cold front approaching the region will bring increasing onshore flow and building seas Monday into Monday night, before moving south of area waters Tuesday morning. Strong to very strong offshore flow will follow the fron's passage when a small craft advisory will likely be needed beginning Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pine Ridge, FL
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location: 26.21, -81.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 150009 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 709 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

Aviation. Todays cold front is exiting the area to the east. Models show the wind should begin to relax this evening across the area, although it may continue out of the northwest overnight. There is some indication it could become light and variable in some locations. Otherwise, quiet weather with VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Prev Discussion. /issued 315 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019/

Short Term .

Tonight and Sunday .

Convection ahead of a cold front is pushing across South Florida. The trend with this convection has been weakening cells along the broken line. Earlier, convection was a bit more vigorous, but it has since lost some of the support from mid and upper level features that are north of the area. While some light showers may remain behind the main line of convection, coverage should continue to diminish over the next several hours.

Drier, cooler air is expected to begin entering the region behind the front with temperatures dropping into the 50s across much of Southwest Florida tonight with 60s around the Atlantic coast and surrounding metro areas. Sunnier skies on Sunday should allow the temperatures to recover into the upper 70s and lower 80s across most of the area. Zonal flow builds aloft and high pressure settles in over the Atlantic at the surface on Sunday.

Long Term .

Sunday Night and Monday .

A low amplitude flow pattern will exist for the CONUS on Sunday, with a gradual amplification taking place on Monday as troughing advances through the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Downstream ridging elongated from the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the northern Caribbean Sea will hold a protective influence over South Florida during this time. Surface high pressure, initially centered over Florida, will locate to our east by Monday in response to upstream pressure falls preceding the mid-CONUS system. The shifting location of the surface high will bring gradually veering winds putting an end to any residual cold advection following the earlier frontal passage. Therefore look for warming temperatures on Monday given the onshore wind component. This will be a dry and mostly sunny period, although Atlantic clouds should spill over into the east coast areas by Monday afternoon with increasing low- level moisture. After cool temperatures Monday morning in the upper 50s (inland) and 60s (east coast metro and immediate Gulf coast), afternoon highs should climb into the 80s for most areas.

Tuesday through Wednesday Night .

Broad troughing aloft will progress through the eastern states, as a basal wind max locates from the Gulf Coast states through northern and central Florida. A weak surface pressure wave will accompany the upper level trough while developing northeastward from the southern Appalachians through New England. The associated cold front should pass through South Florida during the Tuesday Night/Wednesday time frame with increasing lower to mid tropospheric moisture preceding the frontal passage. This will bring increasing shower chances, along with a few thunderstorms possible by Tuesday afternoon and evening as instability increases. Showers remain possible into Wednesday as the frontal system and upper trough gradually exit the region. The greatest rain amounts with this system should be over northwest portions of our area from roughly Lake Okeechobee into Palm Beach County, with forecast amounts tapering off to the south and east. While some 850 mb moisture flux convergence is noted Tuesday afternoon with slowing Corfidi vectors, widespread heavy rain potential appears to be offset by semi-poor moisture quality and the progressive nature of the frontal passage. It's possible that a localized heavy rain threat could materialize however, and we'll keep an eye on this going forward. Confidence in temperature trends is somewhat lower than usual during this period, as cloud cover and rainfall could temper readings on Tuesday with cold advection likely behind the frontal passage by Wednesday. Didn't stray from a model blended consensus, which keeps highs in the 80s on Tuesday, dropping back into the 70s on Wednesday. Much colder temperatures are expected on Wednesday Night with lows dropping into the 40s and 50s for most areas.

Thursday through Saturday .

Quiet and cool conditions are expected on Thursday with shortwave ridging in place. Thereafter a sharpening upper trough will progress through the eastern states into the weekend. The current suite of model solutions display both timing and intensity differences with the trough, with some solutions carving out a closed low over the Gulf Coast states late in the period. This may lead to surface cyclogenesis over the eastern Gulf of Mexico/western North Atlantic Ocean in the Friday-Saturday time frame. If this were to occur, a period of active weather is possible for South Florida. However, model variability remains high and confidence is resultingly low. Therefore will maintain the ongoing forecast for now with PoPs in the chance to slight chance range. This may change as the forecast pattern becomes better elucidated. Temperatures should slowly moderate through this period, but cloud cover and shower chances should hold highs mostly in the 70s to perhaps lower 80s into the weekend.

Marine .

As the weak front pushes through today and eventually dissipates overnight, conditions in the Atlantic waters should improve. High pressure builds in to close out the weekend and kick off the work week, with persistent easterly flow returning and the potential for elevated seas. A mid-week cold front could bring the return of hazardous conditions over the area waters to close out the work week.

Beach Forecast .

The westerly to northwesterly flow behind the front will allow for an elevated rip current risk along the Gulf beaches through Sunday. Along the Atlantic beaches, the rip current risk should diminish as the weekend concludes. By early in the week, the easterly flow returns and so will the elevated rip current risk. Another cold front will push across the region mid-week which will cause hazardous marine conditions to develop leading to the return of an elevated rip current threat to close out the work week.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 59 78 67 81 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 62 79 70 81 / 0 0 0 10 Miami 62 81 70 83 / 0 0 0 10 Naples 56 80 63 83 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None. Aviation . 13


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 5 mi55 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 1016.2 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 12 mi100 min ESE 1 61°F 1017 hPa61°F
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 14 mi91 min NNE 8 G 11 68°F 1016.7 hPa
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 30 mi55 min N 4.1 G 6 1016.1 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 45 mi145 min 77°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 48 mi145 min 77°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL4 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair64°F60°F87%1016.3 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL23 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair59°F57°F93%1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE6CalmCalmNE3NE4NE6CalmCalmE3SE3SE6S6S6S8SW8SW5SW4S4S6S6S10S10SW5SW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Naples, Naples Bay, north end, Florida
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Naples
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:37 AM EST     2.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:58 AM EST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:12 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:35 PM EST     2.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:52 PM EST     0.94 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.82.92.621.30.6-0-0.5-0.6-0.400.71.422.42.42.21.81.310.91.11.5

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:15 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:41 AM EST     -1.60 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:13 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:42 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:37 PM EST     1.29 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:38 PM EST     0.03 knots Min Flood
Sun -- 09:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.70.2-0.5-1.1-1.4-1.6-1.6-1.5-1.1-0.50.20.91.21.31.10.80.60.40.20.100.20.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.