Friday, May29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pine Ridge, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 8:15PM Friday May 29, 2020 10:30 PM EDT (02:30 UTC) Moonrise 11:54AMMoonset 12:33AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- 935 Pm Edt Fri May 29 2020
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northeast winds around 5 knots becoming east southeast 5 knots after midnight. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..East northeast winds 5 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Seas less than 2 feet. Period 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Monday..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..East northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Seas less than 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday and Tuesday night..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 309 Pm Cdt Fri May 29 2020
Synopsis..A light southerly flow continues through the evening as a weak cold front approaches from the north. A light offshore flow develops behind the front and persists through the weekend. A light to moderate east to southeast flow develops late Monday through mid week. Expect a bump in the seas to around 3 to 4 feet with exercise caution conditions possible across the offshore gulf waters by Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pine Ridge, FL
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location: 26.21, -81.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 300025 AAA AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 825 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020

Update. Showers and thunderstorms along the collision of the east and west coast sea breezes should slowly dissipate over the western interior areas of South Florida through rest of this evening and should be gone by midnight tonight. Rest of South Florida should remain mostly dry tonight. Therefore, the only changes to remove POPS over the metro areas and keep the POPs going over the interior areas for this evening.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are planned.

Aviation. The winds will be from the easterly direction over the east coast TAF sites this evening before going light and variable for the overnight hours. KAPF taf site will see a light west wind this evening before light and variable for the overnight hours. The ceiling and vis will remain in VFR conditions tonight over all of the taf sites.

Prev Discussion. /issued 328 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020/

Short Term .

This Afternoon through Saturday

Moisture channel imagery this morning revealed that South Florida remains between deep layered high pressure over the western Atlantic and an area of clouds and deeper convection associated with upper troughing located across the western Gulf of Mexico. Weak surface troughing is also present over the Gulf waters west of Florida as per the 29.09z TAFB/WPC/OPC unified surface analysis. This pattern is also apparent via Satellite derived precipitable water values, which reveal a sharp gradient across the central Bahamas, with the better moisture pool extending southeast from the central/western Gulf into the Greater Antilles. The 29.12z MFL sounding was consistent with this analysis with an observed precipitable water value of 1.64 inches as well. Given plentiful diabatic heating and cool mid level temperatures steep lapse rates should evolve this afternoon with forcing for ascent provided via the combination of sea breeze and outflow boundaries following convective initiation. Given east to southeast steering flow the greatest convective coverage for this afternoon is expected from Palm Beach County towards the western interior and Lake Okeechobee regions. The primary thunderstorm related hazards should be strong gusty winds associated with downbursts, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. A reasonable worst case scenario suggests the possibility for isolated damaging wind gusts and/or localized flooding of poor drainage areas as well.

Some, although not all, of the convection allowing models suggest that outflows could trigger some nocturnal showers or isolated thunderstorms later tonight across mainly inland areas of Miami- Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties. However there is uncertainty in this solution as it will depend upon the evolution of convection for today. Did trend PoPs upward just a bit along the east coast metro areas later tonight however to allow for this possibility.

The upper trough is forecast to progress through the southeast CONUS on Saturday, leaving behind the residual low pressure area over the western Gulf of Mexico. No real change is anticipated in the low levels locally, with the rather weak pressure gradient being maintained. Therefore, given southeasterly low-level flow and westerly winds aloft the greatest thunderstorm coverage should again focus over the Gulf coast, interior, and Lake Okeechobee areas tomorrow afternoon.

Temperatures should remain near seasonal norms throughout the short term period.

Long Term .

Saturday Night through Friday

The aforementioned trough will continue to amplify slightly over the western Atlantic to start the long term period. Prior to this, not expecting much of a pattern change from the short term . best chance of showers along the advancing sea breeze across the interior and southwest Florida coast.

The trough will push a weak cold front southward early next week increasing rain chances across south Florida. The front should stall across the region or pretty close Tuesday into Wednesday. This surface feature will aid the diurnal sea breeze activity and likely enhance the development of showers and storms. Surface high pressure will build eastward across the western Atlantic from early to midweek. Surface pressure across the western portions of the Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico will gradually lower increasing pressure gradient across the region resulting in some breezy conditions, especially along the immediate Atlantic coast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

From mid to late week, models diverge in terms of synoptics. The primary challenges would be the gradual evolution of a ridge that is forecast to migrate to northern Florida or across the Atlantic. Although there is some unanswered synoptic questions within the globals toward the end of the period, still think the typical wet season pattern will continue with diurnally driven showers and T'storms. Heavy rain may be possible from time to time. This of course will need to be monitored day to day given the recent heavy rainfall across the eastern metro. No real variations expected with temperatures through the next week. Easterly flow will keep the warmest temperatures across the interior and southwest FL coast before convection breaks out during peak heating.

Marine .

A bermuda high is developing, which should keep marine conditions mostly benign. The exception will be any thunderstorms that move into the Gulf waters, which could bring locally hazardous marine conditions through the weekend and into next week. Periodic showers and thunderstorms may also affect the Atlantic waters at times.

Aviation (18Z TAFs) .

Scattered showers and storms should develop within the next few hours primarily over the interior and Gulf coast areas. Sub-VFR conditions are likely in/around storms, with prevailing VFR elsewhere. E-SE winds through the TAF period, except turning W-SW during the afternoon along the Gulf Coast.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 76 86 74 87 / 10 20 10 40 Fort Lauderdale 78 86 76 87 / 10 20 10 40 Miami 77 87 75 87 / 10 20 10 40 Naples 73 87 74 87 / 10 30 10 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Update . 54/BNB Aviation . 54/BNB Short Term/Marine . 34/SPM Long Term . 28/Frye


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 5 mi43 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 83°F 86°F1017.8 hPa
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 30 mi43 min N 1.9 G 2.9 80°F 86°F1017.5 hPa
WPLF1 - Watson Place, FL 45 mi91 min 88°F
CNBF1 - Cannon Bay, FL 48 mi91 min 89°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL4 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair83°F78°F85%1016.9 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL23 mi38 minESE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F72°F88%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPF

Wind History from APF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE12NE5E6NE6NE5E7NE5E6E4E8E8E11E846SW93N4SW6S7W4--NW5Calm
1 day agoSE3CalmNE4E3S3CalmCalmE3E5SE5SE6SE6S6SW8SW13SW13SW12SW11E66W5NW4NE3NE7
2 days agoSE3CalmSE5SE3S5SE5SE4SE7S5S8S8SW9SW7S10SW11SW10SW13SW11SW11SW10W6CalmNE5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Naples, Naples Bay, north end, Florida
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Naples
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:26 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:25 AM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:41 PM EDT     1.46 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:01 PM EDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:30 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.30.81.31.82.22.42.42.221.71.51.51.61.92.22.52.62.52.21.81.40.9

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:26 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:21 AM EDT     1.14 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:44 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:51 PM EDT     -0.13 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:55 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:34 PM EDT     0.61 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:30 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.1-0.8-0.30.40.91.11.10.90.70.60.40.2-0-0.100.30.60.60.3-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.