Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Arroyo Gardens, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 8:25PM Thursday July 16, 2020 9:19 AM CDT (14:19 UTC) Moonrise 2:14AMMoonset 3:58PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 346 Am Cdt Thu Jul 16 2020
.small craft should exercise caution...
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay building to choppy in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay subsiding to a moderate chop after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. A light chop on the bay building to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay subsiding to a light chop after midnight.
GMZ100 Synopsis For Baffin Bay To Rio Grande Out 60 Nm- 346 Am Cdt Thu Jul 16 2020
Synopsis..High pressure across the gulf of mexico will maintain moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas. An upper level disturbance over the northern gulf will edge west over the area through the weekend, opening the door for isolated to scattered convection across the lower texas coastal waters late this week and into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arroyo Gardens, TX
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location: 26.26, -97.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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FXUS64 KBRO 161137 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 637 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

DISCUSSION. Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION. Light southeast winds with a few passing low clouds prevail across portions of deep south Texas early this morning. Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Light southeast winds early this morning will increase and become gusty by late morning into the afternoon. Winds will gradually diminish to around 10 knots later this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 422 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): A strong 500mb ridge anchored over northern TX/southern OK will continue to provide very warm to hot conditions across the CWA through the short-term period. An inverted mid-level trough, currently over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, will retrograde west-southwestward today into Friday. This mid-level feature is expected to approach the lower Texas Friday afternoon. Will continue to mention a very low chance (10% chance) of a shower or two developing this afternoon along a weak seabreeze boundary as low level moisture increases. Better rain chances are expected on Friday as deeper moisture arrives and the approach of the inverted mid-level trough. High temperatures today and Friday will generally range from the low to mid 90s near the coast to the 102 to 106 degrees across the west, near Falcon Lake and Zapata County. Heat Index values of 105 to 110 degrees are possible across portions of deep south Texas this afternoon and Friday afternoon. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): A pretty decent inverted 500 mb trough will undercut the broad ridging in place over the southern states pushing into the RGV Fri Night and Sat. This could give the region a brief window of opportunity for some isold conv through Sat. Meanwhile, a short wave riding over the top of the ridge axis will combine with the inverted troffing undercutting the ridge to maintain a general but persistent weakness in the overall ridge axis. This general weakness will likely persist into the first half of next week which could increase the potential for afternoon and early evening sea breeze activity throughout the longer range period. The main limiting factor will be the lack of serious deep layer tropical moisture over Deep South TX. So will maintain only isold pops for Sat and again for next Wed.

Overall temps may trend gradually downward a few degrees as the ridge axis over the area breaks down somewhat. But expect temps to remain near to above climo for the area for late July.

The 500 mb heights from both the GFS and the ECMWF models are in pretty good agreement through Days 7 and 8. So overall forecast confidence in the longer range period is above average.

MARINE (Now through Friday): Buoy 42020 reported southeast winds around 14 knots gusting to around 18 knots with seas around 3.3 feet with a period of 6 seconds at 0300 CDT/0800 UTC. Moderate winds and low to moderate seas are expected today through Friday as the pressure gradient continues to relax. However, mariners should exercise caution on the Laguna Madre and near shore Gulf waters late this morning into the afternoon due to a slight uptick in the winds.

Friday Night through Monday Night: The PGF will remain pretty weak into the weekend and early next week. This will maintain pretty low seas as a light to moderate S-SE surface winds prevail.No SCA conditions expected through Mon Night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 79 93 77 / 10 10 20 10 BROWNSVILLE 95 80 95 78 / 10 10 30 10 HARLINGEN 98 78 96 77 / 10 10 30 10 MCALLEN 100 80 98 78 / 10 0 30 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 104 79 103 77 / 0 0 20 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 81 86 80 / 10 10 20 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. TX . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63-KC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RLIT2 11 mi110 min SSE 8 G 11 84°F
PTIT2 - 8779770 - Port Isabel, TX 20 mi110 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 82°F
PMNT2 21 mi110 min 86°F
PCGT2 - 8779748 - South Padre Island CGS, TX 22 mi110 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1
BZST2 23 mi110 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 76°F
RSJT2 - 8777812 - Rincon del San Jose; Potrero Lopeno SW, TX 37 mi110 min SSE 11 G 13 85°F

Wind History for Port Isabel, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harlingen, Rio Grande Valley International Airport, TX9 mi28 minS 1110.00 miFair86°F77°F75%1014.9 hPa
Port Isabel, Port Isabel-Cameron County Airport, TX11 mi27 minSSE 1110.00 miFair86°F77°F75%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHRL

Wind History from HRL (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas
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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:13 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:58 AM CDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 04:57 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:22 PM CDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.811.11.11.11.11.11.1110.90.80.70.60.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.200.2

Tide / Current Tables for Port Isabel, Texas (2)
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Port Isabel
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:13 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:22 AM CDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 04:57 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:26 PM CDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.811.11.21.21.21.21.11.11.11.11.110.90.70.40.2-0-0.1-0.1-0.10.10.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.