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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 928 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay becoming light chop after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming a moderate chop in the afternoon. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots in the afternoon. Choppy on the bay. Showers likely in the morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay becoming a moderate chop after midnight. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay becoming light chop after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 928 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis..An enhanced pressure gradient and an easterly fetch will continue with light to moderate winds and moderate seas along the lower texas coast, with small craft exercise caution likely needed through at least Thursday across the offshore portions of the gulf of mexico coastal waters, and across the laguna madre Wednesday through Wednesday night. Marine conditions deteriorate into this weekend with the passage of the first stronger cold front of the autumn season. Small craft advisory conditions are likely across all or portions of the lower texas coastal waters. Showers and Thunderstorm chances will remain possible through much of the period. Winds and seas may be higher in and near Thunderstorms.

FXUS64 KBRO 040530 AAB AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1230 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

The mid-level synoptic pattern will feature an upper level trough that extends from the northern plains into the Four Corners region of the CONUS while weak ridging remains established over the western Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure continues to extend across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

The sea breeze will likely trend a bit less active today across Deep South Texas as the 850 mb flow is a little more southerly oriented compared to southeasterly. This has the most anomalous PWATs, which exceed 2 inches, aimed more towards the CRP/HGX NWS office CWAs and the middle to upper Texas coast. Nonetheless, some isolated activity still remains possible over portions of the region, especially for Kenedy County. The higher PWATs should drift westward closer to the lower Texas coast from the overnight through Wednesday. This will promote an uptick in offshore activity late tonight and a more active sea breeze as it advances inland with isolated to scattered convection.

Temperatures remain well above average with afternoon highs peaking in the mid to upper 90s across the majority of the region and near or slightly above the 100 degree mark in the upper valley and Zapata county. Warm and humid conditions trend at night with the overnight lows only bottoming out in the mid to upper 70s and low 80s across majority of the region. The afternoon highs will trend slightly lower and overnight lows will trend slightly warmer along the immediate coast.

The surface high across the northern Gulf will continue to support higher wave heights and longer period swell, leading to a continued increased risk for rip currents and minor coastal flooding. Elected to issue a rip current statement for a high risk of rip currents and a coastal flood statement for the duration of the upcoming high tide cycle tonight through 00Z Thursday.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Key Messages:

- A cold front will bring widespread rain/storm chances beginning late Thursday evening into the first half of the weekend and below normal temperatures through next week.

- There is a marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall Thursday and Friday for Deep South Texas.

- Minor Coastal Flooding and moderate/high risk of rip currents will be possible through the weekend.

By Thursday morning, the upper level trough will be swinging across the Plains as the attendant cold front makes its way across Texas.
Most guidance indicates the cold front will be located somewhere across Central and East Texas Thursday morning, most likely approaching Deep South Texas late Thursday evening or night. This will result in a mostly rain-free day (outside of any sea breeze activity) and a seasonably hot afternoon with highs in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees.

Embedded shortwaves within the upper level flow, high precipitable water values, and the passage of the frontal boundary will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms beginning late Thursday evening over the Northern Ranchlands and continue through Friday night across the rest of the Rio Grande Valley. Locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out, and the timing of this threat greatest Thursday night and Friday. There are some indications that some of the higher rainfall amounts may fall west of the Rio Grande River, so total rainfall amounts may change over the next few days. Still, there is high confidence (70% or greater) that most of Deep South Texas will receive at least 1 inch of rain with this event, and low to medium confidence (50% or less) for greater than 2 inches of rain with this event.

The increased cloud cover and rain chances will keep Deep South Texas below normal on Friday with highs in the upper 80s, but the cooler airmass is not expected to arrive until Saturday. As the cooler and drier airmass filters in on Saturday, expect rain chances to end. Sunday morning low temperatures will feel noticeably cooler with low temperatures in the 60s region wide. A few areas over the Rio Grande Plains may fall into the upper 50s.
High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 70s and low 80s region wide, about 10 degrees below normal for early October. Expect a gradual warming trend over the next few days, with highs in the low 90s expected once again by mid week.

For the Lower Texas beaches, the combination of breezy north winds and moderate seas will result in adverse marine conditions, including minor coastal flooding and a risk of rip currents through the weekend.

Continue to check back for updates to the forecast over the next few days, especially as this event is captured by high res guidance.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Mostly clear skies and light southeast winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. VFR conditions are generally expected through much of the period, with another round of isolated to widely scattered convection this afternoon working east to west. Confidence remains too low to include in the MFE TAF at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Today through Wednesday night...An enhanced pressure gradient and an easterly fetch will continue courtesy of surface high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Light to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist along the Lower Texas Coast. Small craft exercise caution wording will likely be needed over the coastal gulf waters through at least Wednesday night while the Laguna Madre may see strong enough winds for small craft exercise conditions from Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Thursday through next Tuesday...Expect generally moderate winds and seas at the start of the period due to an enhanced pressure gradient. Small Craft Exercise Caution is possible on Thursday, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Friday through the weekend as a result of the passage of a cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 94 78 89 / 20 40 40 60 HARLINGEN 78 95 74 86 / 20 40 40 70 MCALLEN 81 97 75 85 / 10 40 50 70 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 98 74 84 / 10 40 70 70 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 89 81 85 / 30 40 40 70 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 93 76 88 / 30 40 40 60

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ451-454-455.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.

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Port Isabel
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Wed -- 07:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:31 PM CDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:15 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Isabel, Texas, Tide feet

Port Isabel
Click for Map
Wed -- 07:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:55 PM CDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:15 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Isabel, Texas (2), Tide feet

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Brownsville, TX,