Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 3:57 PM   Moonset 3:13 AM

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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 910 Pm Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Rest of tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast early this morning. Light chop on the bay, diminishing to smooth early this morning. Sunday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming around 10 knots late in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay. Patchy fog early in the morning. Sunday night - East winds around 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Light chop on the bay. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Monday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots, becoming 10 to 15 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Choppy on the bay. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Wednesday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Thursday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Choppy on the bay. Thursday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Choppy on the bay, diminishing to a moderate chop early in the morning.

GMZ100 910 Pm Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - Generally favorable marine conditions are expected though the weekend hot and dry conditions. Onshore flow will begin to increase early next week and continue that trend throughout next week. Seas will respond accordingly and slowly build throughout next week. Periods of small craft caution will be possible throughout next week.

FXUS64 KBRO 190526 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1226 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A weak quasi-stationary front situated just south of the CWA will continue to undergo frontolysis as the airmass warms north of the front and as winds continue to diverge and veer behind the front.
Otherwise, northwest flow aloft and mid/upper level ridging will continue to build into the CWA through the short-term forecast period. The net result will be increasing subsidence and drying of the tropospheric column. This in turn will lead to rain-free conditions and slightly warmer temperatures on Sunday. Made a few minor edits to the latest NBM temperatures but otherwise leaned in that direction. For now, we anticipate that heat advisory criteria will not be met on Sunday.

The combination of very high surface-based moisture, drying aloft and weak surface flow at night will lead to some fog development tonight. Still also expecting another round of stratus to develop each night and persist into the morning hours given the very high amount of boundary layer moisture.

Both the RAP-Smoke and GEOS-5 models depict the core of the haze and smoke remaining across the open Gulf. However, peripheral influx of smoke and haze is still anticipated through the short-term period, thus keeping the generally unhealthy air, especially for areas generally east of I-69C.

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Key Messages: -Dangerous heat is the story through the week and into Memorial Day Weekend -Fair to poor air quality to prevail until further notice for much of the RGV

A broad and very strong (for late May) 500 mb ridge will set up camp in northern Mexico...stretching from Durango/Zacatecas through the RGV region and centered from Durango through southern Coahuila/Nuevo Leon to central Tamaulipas. This is similar to our typical summer "La Canicula" pattern...only displaced a bit south into Mexico which, in a sense, is even worse...as continued energy waves moving through the central/southern Plains draw a continue tap of moisture on southerly/southeasterly flow in the lower levels that taps the eastern tropical Pacific, western Caribbean, and southwest Gulf. With the ridge settled in and all of the energy well to the north, rain chances will be virtually nil.

As for temperatures...the amazing statistic is not just the persistent of triple-digit afternoon heat and "feels like" temperatures to or above heat advisory (111 to 115 degrees) across the populated RGV each day, but the persistent of oppressive overnight temperatures in the 80s...only reaching the upper 70s just before daybreak and only across rural areas. "Feels like" temperatures will remain in the 90s all night in urban/suburban Valley locations and other areas along/near the Rio Grande...which adds up to accumulated heat impacts especially on those with limited cooling both day and night. When comparing with 2023, the expected conditions are matched will with mid to late *June* - a month that was near all-time records.

Compounding the temperatures is a continuation of "ugly" air - a result of increased agricultural burning in southeast Mexico/Yucatan and Central American wildfires all being driven north/northwestward on the persistent south/southeast flow but also picking up higher dewpoint air from top 5 percentile warm sea surface temperatures in the areas mentioned above. Overnight inversions trap the moisture with the smoke...leading to higher concentrations of condensation nuclei and hence air quality that edges into the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups and Unhealthy (red)
range. Each day through the long term will likely have this category...which is making spring 2024 one for the record books in terms of numbers of days with USG (orange) and Unhealthy (red)
conditions.

Bottom lines? Follow heat safety guidelines, and if susceptible to the dirty air, wear an N95 particulate-blocking mask and ensure indoor air is truly "conditioned" through clean ducts, filters, and unblocked circulation.

At the beach, moderate mainly south to north longshore currents will greet swimmers enjoying the low 80s surf.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

MVFR to VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Light to moderate winds with no precipitation is also anticipated.

MARINE
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Tonight through Sunday night...Modest 3-4 foot seas will generally persist through the short-term period as the overall gradient will remain in the weak to moderate range. These modest seas and 7-8 second period waves will generally maintain a moderate risk of rip currents through the short-term period.

Monday through Thursday Night...Same stuff, different day: Persistent south-southeast flow and enough gradient exists for periodic Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions (15 to 20 knots and gusty) each afternoon on Laguna Madre and overnight on the open Gulf. Marine layer still holds, even though temperatures are higher on the Gulf due to the heat. There's still a ~20 degree afternoon difference between sea and land so expect speeds closer to 15 knots during the day on the Gulf. Seas will be a bit difficult for small craft with a not-so-great combo of wind waves and swell adding up to values in the 4-6 foot range.

CLIMATE
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

How hot, you may ask? Let's do the numbers (degrees Fahrenheit): For May 2024 so far (day and night combined)...

Location(since) Current Record(rank) Prior record(year)

Brownsville(1878) 85.6 (1) 84.4 (2003)
Harlingen/Valley(1953) 84.1 (4) 85.6 (2003)
McAllen(1942) 86.9 (2) 87.1 (2009)
Rio Grande City(1897) 86.2 (3) 87.6 (2003)
Raymondville(1913) 85.3 (2) 85.4 (2003)
Port Mansfield(1958) 83.3 (1) 82.0 (2003)
Weslaco(1914) 84.8 (2) 85.7 (1933)

For the year so far:

Brownsville(1878) 72.5 (3) 73.5 (2020)
Harlingen/Valley(1953) 70.3 (6) 72.7 (2000)
McAllen(1942) 72.5 (5) 74.2 (2020)
Rio Grande City(1897) 70.5 (6) 73.3 (2000)
Raymondville(1913) 70.3 (6)* 72.0 (2020)
Port Mansfield(1958) 69.3.(3) 71.1 (2000)
Weslaco(1914) 70.2.(5) 72.8 (2000)

Given the aforementioned forecast through Memorial Day Weekend, and no changes apparent beyond, May 2024 is a virtual lock for the all-time record, with Brownsville likely to land more than 2 degrees above the prior record! The same prolonged stretch will pull the annual rankings into the top five at all locations, with some potentially reaching number 1.

And a searing June is expected to follow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 96 80 96 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 75 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 78 100 80 100 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 85 81 87 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 95 79 95 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Isabel
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Sat -- 01:48 AM CDT     0.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:44 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:40 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:59 AM CDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:39 PM CDT     0.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:04 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:43 PM CDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:09 PM CDT     Sunset
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