SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

This Afternoon into Tonight...
A stationary frontal boundary will remain over Central Florida keeping a south to southwest wind flow over South Florida. This will allow for the west coast sea breeze to continue to push eastward across South Florida and collide with the east coast sea breeze late this afternoon into early this evening. Therefore, showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over the interior areas and push into the east coast metro areas through early this evening.
The showers and thunderstorms should then dissipate late this evening allowing for mostly dry conditions for the overnight hours.

There could be some fog formation over the interior and west coast metro areas late tonight due to the high moisture over the region along with light winds. Therefore, fog wording has been added for these areas for tonight. Lows tonight will also be in the mid to upper 70s except around 80 over the metro areas.

Friday...
The frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary on Friday keeping a south southwest steering flow over South Florida. This will once again allow for the west coast sea breeze to push across the region with the east coast sea breeze remaining over the east coast metro areas. The PWAT values will also remain in the 2 to 2.1 inch range over South Florida. Therefore, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the region on Friday with the best coverage over the interior and east coast metro areas.

Highs on Friday will once again get into the lower to mid 90s over most areas with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. This will allow for the heat indices to get back up into the 105 to 110 range over South Florida leading to possible Heat Advisories again for Friday. If these trends continue in later forecast, then the night shift might have to issued Heat Advisories for Friday for South Florida.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Over the weekend, mid-level troughing, associated with the remnants of Francine, will gradually spread across the southeastern CONUS.
This will lead to the flattening of the ridging over the southeast Gulf of Mexico. As the troughing moves down over the Florida Peninsula, the W-NW mid-level flow will bring a drier air mass into South Florida. The ensemble PWATs will trend drier, with values dropping from 2.0-2.3" on Saturday to 1.8-2.0" on Sunday.
Therefore, the chance for rain will be lower, with PoPs at 30-60%, and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the weekend. The activity will develop with the diurnal heating each afternoon, along sea breeze boundaries and favoring the interior and East Coast metro areas. As the the mid-level low and troughing stalls over the southeastern CONUS, conditions will not vary much as we move into the early to mid new week ahead.

With no relief in sight, hot and humid conditions will remain in place for the weekend, with potential heat advisories needed for heat indices ranging from 105-110. Beginning early next week, the mid-level troughing will bring in a slightly cooler airmass. High temperatures will "cool" in the upper 80s to low 90s and potential peak heat indices around 100-105.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Mainly VFR conditions expected overnight. Some patchy fog is possible over the interior early Friday morning but shouldn't impact any of the terminals. Light and variable winds through about 14Z Friday and then light W/SW winds 5-10 kts, with an afternoon SE breeze expected for PBI/FLL/MIA. Scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon hours may result in brief flight restrictions.

MARINE
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Winds over most of South Florida waters will remain from the southern direction at 5 to 10 knots through the weekend. The only exception is over the Gulf waters where they will be more west to northwest at 5 to 10 knots. This will keep the seas in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters at 2 feet or less through the weekend.
Therefore, boating conditions looks good outside of any showers or thunderstorms through this weekend.

BEACHES
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

The threat of rip currents will continue to decrease over the Gulf and Atlantic beaches on Friday and by this weekend should be low, as the winds continue to remain below 10 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 79 92 79 92 / 20 50 30 70 West Kendall 78 93 77 93 / 20 50 30 70 Opa-Locka 80 93 78 93 / 20 50 30 70 Homestead 78 92 78 92 / 20 50 30 60 Fort Lauderdale 79 91 78 91 / 20 50 30 70 N Ft Lauderdale 79 92 79 92 / 20 50 30 70 Pembroke Pines 80 95 79 94 / 20 50 30 70 West Palm Beach 78 93 78 92 / 20 50 30 60 Boca Raton 79 93 78 92 / 20 50 30 60 Naples 79 92 80 92 / 10 30 20 50

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.