Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manalapan, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 6:11PM Thursday February 20, 2020 12:32 PM EST (17:32 UTC) Moonrise 4:46AMMoonset 3:34PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manalapan, FL
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location: 26.3, -77.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 201454 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 954 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

Marine.

A frontal boundary will push across the region tomorrow with strong winds, elevated seas, and swell in its wake. Forecast wind gusts approaching gale force have warranted the issuance of a Gale Watch for the Atlantic waters beginning Friday Morning at 10 AM.

Prev Discussion. /issued 858 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020/

Update . Radar this morning reveals a few showers over the Atlantic moving along the southeasterly flow. Through the afternoon, these showers should continue to brush the east coast before dissipating. Flow is expected to veer out the south and southwest by this evening, which could increase coverage over the interior through the afternoon. Although, these showers should remain of the garden variety as vertical development is stunted with mid- level ridging in place. This is well noted by a capping inversion below 700 mb in the 20.00Z MIA sounding. Have made minor tweaks to the grids to reflect current observations, but otherwise, the forecast looks to be in good shape with another warm day in store for South Florida.

Prev Discussion . /issued 627 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020/

Aviation . Primarily VFR conditions across South Florida and all terminals throughout the period. Patchy fog has developed across inland South Florida this morning and should dissipate around sunrise. Isolated showers are forecast across the eastern portions of South Florida today, however, coverage will be too low to include in the TAFS at this time. Cigs and vis should remain MVFR to VFR with any showers that develop.

Prev Discussion . /issued 408 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020/

Short Term (Thursday through Saturday Morning) .

The mid/upper-level ridge that has been in place over South Florida is becoming elongated as it weakens and shifts southward ahead of an approaching cold frontal boundary from the northwest.

Thursday .

Surface winds will veer from a southeasterly direction to a southwesterly direction while sufficient boundary layer moisture remains in place across South Florida today. A strong mid-level capping inversion should keep any shower activity confined to the lowest 5,000 feet of the atmosphere. The greatest shower coverage is forecast to be over the eastern portions of South Florida, while some showers may advect inland with the mean steering flow this afternoon. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s across the Gulf Coast and inland South Florida, while the eastern areas will experience the low to mid 80s.

Friday through Saturday morning .

Winds will start out from the west on Friday morning and quickly veer to the north/northwest behind the aforementioned cold frontal boundary. The pressure gradient will rapidly tighten from north to south across the region, leading to wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph along the coastal interfaces of South Florida Friday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible throughout the day, especially along the Atlantic coast of South Florida. Model solutions indicate the presence of a weak mid-level capping inversion which should keep most shower activity shallow on Friday. High temperatures will only reach the low to mid 70s due to the northerly winds advecting cold/dry air into the region and extensive cloud coverage.

The pressure gradient will remain relatively tight on Saturday, leading to another day of gusty winds, especially along the coastal interfaces of South Florida. Winds will remain out of the north before becoming northeasterly throughout the day. A chance of rain showers will remain possible on Saturday, especially along the Atlantic coast of South Florida. Low temperatures on Saturday morning will be in the upper 40s to low 50s near Lake Okeechobee and inland South Florida, while the eastern areas will experience the upper 50s to low 60s.

Long Term (Saturday through Wednesday) .

Behind the front on Saturday will be a drying trend though some convection could linger over the east coast metro and Atlantic waters with the mid-level trough over the Bahamas to start the weekend. Surface high pressure building back into the region will create a strong northeasterly flow that will keep temperatures from dropping too much with highs on Saturday reaching into the lower to mid 70s and some 50s sneaking into Southwest Florida and inland portions of South Florida on Sunday morning. Moderated temperatures near climatological norms will remain to start the work week. Wind speeds over the weekend could be fairly strong with wind gusts near the coast near gale possible. Will need to continue monitoring forecast trends in case a wind advisory were to become necessary for portions of the weekend.

The surface high will slide eastward into the Atlantic to kick off the work week, which will turn the flow more easterly to close out the weekend and then more southeasterly early in the week. this wind flow will allow a gradual warming and moistening trend. The next low pressure system will emerge over the central United States late Monday into Tuesday as a mid-level trough pushes into the Great Lakes with the associated surface cold front pushing through the southern tier of the country into the Gulf of Mexico. As the parent low pushes northeastward Tuesday into Wednesday, the cold front will move into Florida from northwest to southeast with the front pushing through South Florida to close out the extended forecast period. Confidence on timing, potential impacts, and the strength of the features connected to the front remains moderate, aided by consistency between different guidance members but we must remember that it is still at the end of the period where small feature changes can have large impacts to the forecast.

Beach Forecast .

Increasing swell and building northeasterly winds will create a high risk of rip currents for much of the weekend along with the potential for high surf and beach erosion along the Atlantic beaches. These hazardous beach conditions could linger into early next week as well.

Another concern is the potential for coastal flooding with high tide due to the new moon this weekend. The northeasterly to easterly wind, persistent swell, and high seas will contribute to the potential for higher-than-normal tides which could create minor coastal impacts for at least this weekend.

Prev Discussion . /issued 109 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020/

Aviation .

Generally VFR conditions across South Florida and all terminals throughout the period. MVFR cigs may develop overnight tonight into tomorrow morning across inland areas and the Gulf Coast of South Florida. Confidence in impacts remain to low to include in the KAPF TAF at this time. Isolated showers along the Atlantic coastline of South Florida are possible tomorrow afternoon through the evening, however, cigs and vis should remain MVFR to VFR.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 85 66 72 59 / 30 30 40 40 Fort Lauderdale 83 69 76 61 / 30 30 30 30 Miami 85 68 77 59 / 20 20 20 30 Naples 85 63 74 51 / 10 10 10 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM . None.

Marine . 11/HVN


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 94 mi32 min SSE 9.9 G 12 78°F 1019.5 hPa (-0.8)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boca Raton, Boca Raton Airport, FL149 mi97 minSSW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F69°F59%1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBCT

Wind History from BCT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE12SE12SE9SE9SE9SE4SE6SE6--SE3--------------S3SE3--SE10S10S9
1 day agoSE10
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SE12SE12SE12----SE9----SE9--------------SE4SE5
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Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas
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Pelican Harbour
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Thu -- 04:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:01 AM EST     3.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:23 PM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:32 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:03 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:16 PM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.711.52.12.73.23.33.22.82.21.510.70.81.11.62.22.62.82.82.41.91.30.8

Tide / Current Tables for Nassau, New Providence Island, Bahamas
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Nassau
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Thu -- 04:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:41 AM EST     3.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:06 PM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:36 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:06 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:07 PM EST     2.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.711.62.22.83.13.22.92.41.81.10.70.50.611.52.12.52.72.62.21.610.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.