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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 401 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft should exercise caution...
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt along the coast to se 15 to 20 kt in the gulf stream. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas.
Sun..S se winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers in the evening. A chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Along the coast, seas 2 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft in the afternoon. In the gulf stream, seas 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft building to 5 to 8 ft, occasionally to 10 ft in the afternoon. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Mon night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft along the coast and 6 to 8 ft, occasionally to 10 ft in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas.
Tue..NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to around 35 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, occasionally to 9 ft along the coast and 6 to 9 ft, occasionally to 11 ft in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters very rough in exposed areas. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..Along the coast, E ne winds 25 to 30 kt becoming 15 to 20 kt late in the evening. In the gulf stream, E ne winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, occasionally to 13 ft subsiding to 5 to 8 ft, occasionally to 10 ft after midnight. Intracoastal waters very rough in exposed areas. A chance of showers.
Wed through Thu..E ne winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt along the coast to E ne 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt in the gulf stream. Seas 6 to 9 ft, occasionally to 11 ft. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Showers likely. A slight chance of tstms.
Thu night..E ne winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, occasionally to 13 ft. N ne swell 3 ft becoming ne 5 ft after midnight. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 401 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis..
moderate to fresh easterly to southeasterly winds are expected through today before becoming more southerly to southwesterly on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas in the atlantic generally 3 to 5 ft through Sunday, and 2 ft or less in the gulf.
gulf stream hazards: seas building to 4 to 6 feet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 09, 2023 at 12 utc...
18 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 16 nautical miles east of port everglades. 3 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 5 nautical miles northeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 092325 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 625 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1202 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

The airmass over South Florida will continue to moisten as we remain on the periphery of Atlantic surface high pressure which will permit the southeasterly to southerly wind flow this weekend. Aloft, a mid- level low crossing the upper midwest and an amplifying mid-level longwave trough moving into the eastern third of the country will propel a cold front across the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards the area on Sunday.

Convection today should remain mostly showers with a focus along a boundary located over the Atlantic waters off Palm Beach County. As this warm front retreats northward heading into Sunday, rain chances will generally diminish until diurnal heating peaks on Sunday afternoon ahead of the cold front. Some thunderstorm activity is possible, although coverage will be highest over the local waters.
Localized heavy rainfall is also possible, particularly along the east coast metro where coastal influences could contribute. The frontal boundary is expected to pass through the area Sunday night into Monday, and some showers and thunderstorms will linger and continue into the overnight period.

Highs today and tomorrow will reach the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Models remain in fair agreement regarding a FROPA Sunday night into monday, bringing deteriorating conditions across the area.
Model PWATs continue to gradually increase to values near 2 inches Sunday night, which will support enhanced convection over the coastal waters first, and then spreading over land. Latest POPs remain in the 40 to 60% chance, with a chance of thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon and through the evening hours. Can't rule out a few strong cells, especially along the Atlantic coastline where coastal convergence may promote deeper convection.

The front clears SoFlo Monday morning with high pressure building in its wake. Expect cooler/drier air advection from the north, with daytime temperatures remaining in the 70s on Monday afternoon.
Nighttime lows should drop into the low-mid 50s inland and low-mid 60s elsewhere.

Long range solutions keep the decaying boundary lingering near the Florida Keys, nearly stationary through late Tuesday, and keeping enhanced pressure gradients across the southern half of the peninsula. Therefore, expect periods of breezy and gusty northeasterly winds, especially in the afternoon hours. By late Wednesday and through the end of the week, models suggest another surge of moisture as the decaying boundary retrogrades across the area. A stratiform deck should accompany the returning front, with POPs jumping back into the 50 or even 60 percent range, especially around the east coast, on Thursday. Latest ensemble members show possible PWATs of up to 2 inches Thursday afternoon, and potential for isolated max QPF values of up to 4 inches. But since it is too early to embrace any particular solution, the forecast philosophy will remain on the conservative side in terms of QPF, and continue to adjust accordingly as new guidance becomes available.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

VFR with southeasterly wind flow across the area overnight. Winds will become breezy after sunrise with southeast wind flow prevailing. Potential of SHRA impacting sites after 20z along the east coast tomorrow afternoon although confidence remains low at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 1202 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Gusty easterly to southeasterly winds today will become more southerly to southwesterly on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Showers and some thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through the period, particularly over the local waters. Strong winds in the wake of the cold front could allow hazardous marine conditions to develop by Monday and linger through much of the week.

BEACHES
Issued at 1202 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

A high risk of rip currents will persist through at least the weekend along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida thanks to a southeasterly wind flow. Accordingly, the Rip Current Statement for

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 72 82 67 75 / 10 30 50 10 West Kendall 68 83 64 76 / 10 30 40 0 Opa-Locka 71 83 65 76 / 10 30 50 10 Homestead 71 82 65 77 / 10 30 40 10 Fort Lauderdale 72 82 66 75 / 10 30 60 10 N Ft Lauderdale 72 82 65 75 / 10 30 50 10 Pembroke Pines 70 83 65 75 / 10 30 50 10 West Palm Beach 69 82 63 72 / 10 20 50 0 Boca Raton 71 83 64 74 / 10 30 60 10 Naples 66 81 60 71 / 0 20 30 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

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Deerfield Beach
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Sat -- 12:01 AM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:11 AM EST     2.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:31 PM EST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:58 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:08 PM EST     2.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Deerfield Beach, Hillsboro River, Florida, Tide feet

Yamato
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Sat -- 12:53 AM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:03 AM EST     2.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:23 PM EST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:57 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:00 PM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Yamato, ICWW, Florida, Tide feet

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