Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 10:25 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 400 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 pm edt this evening through Tuesday evening - .
Tonight - SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 7 seconds and N nw 1 foot at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening. Tue - S winds 20 to 25 kt. In the gulf stream, gusts up to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 6 seconds and ne 1 foot at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and N nw 1 foot at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Wed - S sw winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt along the coast to S sw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt in the gulf stream. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - W sw winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S sw 3 ft at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the evening. A chance of tstms through the night. Showers likely after midnight. Thu - W sw winds 10 to 15 kt becoming S sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and N ne 2 ft at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night. A slight chance of tstms after midnight. Fri - W sw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of tstms a chance of showers in the afternoon Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Sat night - S sw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 400 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis -
southeasterly flow will increase to hazardous levels this afternoon through Tuesday morning as the pressure gradient between high pressure over the atlantic and low pressure over the central us increases. The flow will then veer more southwesterly and likely remain at least cautionary on Wednesday as the low moves into the eastern us
gulf stream hazards: southeast winds 15-25 kts with gusts to 30kts from late this afternoon through Tuesday.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 11, 2024 at 12 utc - .
1 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 9 nautical miles east of port everglades. 3 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 131819 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 219 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

High pressure over the Lake Okeechobee this afternoon will move slowly southward through South Florida tonight into Tuesday, as the MCS continues to move eastward from the Southeastern United States into the Western Atlantic waters. At the same time, a mid to upper level low will be developing over the Southeastern United States.

This weather pattern will allow for the winds over South Florida to become more southerly tonight into Tuesday while the 725-750 mb cap remains in place. Therefore, most areas will remain dry through Tuesday, but could still see a few showers or thunderstorms over the Lake okeechobee region into the NE Portions of Palm Beach County this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon due to the collision of the sea breezes and lake breeze.

One of two storms could also become strong especially where the sea breezes and lake breeze collide due to the 500 mb temps being in the -8 to -9C. The primary impacts from the strong storms will be gusty winds, hail, and lightning strikes.

The other major story is the heat over South Florida. Lows tonight will only be able to fall down into the 70s over the interior areas to around 80 over the metro areas. However, the heat index readings over the east coast metro areas will only get down into the mid to upper 80s overnight, due to the increase in humidity.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the lower to mid 90s over the metro areas to around 100 over the interior areas. With higher humidity, the heat indices will be in the 105 to 108 range over most areas, except 100 to 105 range over the east coast metro areas. If these forecast heat indices continue in later forecast runs, then a heat advisory may be needed for portions of South Florida for Tuesday.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

A mid-level low will become cut off from the mean flow aloft mid to late week as it moves from the Mississippi River valley across the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. The associated surface cold front will pinch the high pressure over much of the peninsula of Florida south and east by late week. The frontal boundary could enter south central Florida Wednesday into Thursday, briefly allowing a window for some increased rain chances but the weak front lacks the support for more widespread activity which could provide more substantial relief from the heat. Temperatures aloft will cool to around -9 to -10C on Wednesday and Thursday which could support an isolated strong storm or two.

The main story through this forecast period will be the potential for hazardous heat which will begin on Wednesday and linger into the weekend. Most of South Florida could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat Advisory on Wednesday through Saturday and this potential will be monitored through the week.
Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s area- wide each afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for coastal areas with portions of interior South Florida potentially approaching the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro mid to late week could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s. This could lead to a period of several days where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.

By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat.
If the front stalls to the north, the excessive heat risk could linger through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The winds will swing from a southeast direction this afternoon to more of a southerly direction late tonight into Tuesday over the Taf sites.
Wind speeds should be around 15 knots this afternoon decreasing to 5 to 10 knots tonight. Most TAF sites remain dry except for KPBI with VCTS from 21 to 00Z. Ceiling and Vis remain in VFR conditions, but could fall down into MVFR or even IFR conditions at KPBI taf site with thunderstorms.

MARINE
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The winds will swing from a southeast direction this afternoon to more of a south southwest direction Tuesday into the upcoming weekend. Wind speeds will be 10 to 15 knots over most South Florida waters, except for the Atlantic waters where they will be 15 to 25 knots tonight into Tuesday.

The Gulf seas will be 1 to 3 feet tonight through rest of this week. The Atlantic seas will be 2 to 5 feet tonight into Tuesday before decreasing to 1 to 3 feet for the middle to end of this week. Therefore, an SCA will remain in place over the Atlantic waters tonight into Tuesday

BEACHES
Issued at 1248 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The southeast to south winds will allow for the continue threat of Rip Currents through tonight along the east coast beaches of South Florida. The winds will become more south southwest on Tuesday, but due to the low time in the morning and the last several days of the persistent southeast winds, the threat of rip currents should continue into Tuesday. Therefore, The High Risk of Rip Currents along the east coast beaches of South Florida will continue through Tuesday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 80 93 80 95 / 10 10 0 30 West Kendall 79 94 78 96 / 10 10 0 20 Opa-Locka 80 94 79 96 / 10 10 0 30 Homestead 80 91 79 94 / 10 10 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 81 91 80 94 / 10 10 10 40 N Ft Lauderdale 81 94 79 95 / 10 10 10 40 Pembroke Pines 80 94 80 97 / 10 10 0 30 West Palm Beach 78 94 77 96 / 30 20 10 50 Boca Raton 80 94 79 96 / 20 10 10 50 Naples 79 92 79 91 / 10 10 10 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...None.

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Boca Raton
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Mon -- 12:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:41 AM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:19 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:51 PM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:31 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Boca Raton, Lake Boca Raton, Florida, Tide feet

Hillsboro Inlet (ocean)
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Mon -- 12:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:55 AM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:12 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:05 PM EDT     2.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:24 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hillsboro Inlet (ocean), Florida, Tide feet

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