Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Estero, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:38PM Monday December 16, 2019 3:31 AM EST (08:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:18PMMoonset 11:02AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ836 Charlotte Harbor And Pine Island Sound- 813 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Rest of tonight..East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Tuesday..Southeast winds around 10 knots then becoming south in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West winds around 5 knots then becoming north around 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wednesday night..North winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday..Northeast winds around 15 knots then becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 813 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis..High pressure moves east to over the atlantic tonight and continues east while ridging back across the gulf of mexico through Tuesday. A cold front will then move through the area Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing some showers and a few Thunderstorms, as well as strong winds to likely cautionary levels. High pressure builds in behind the front with winds remaining elevated through Thursday, then slowly subsiding.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estero, FL
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location: 26.4, -81.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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FXUS62 KTBW 160812 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 312 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

DISCUSSION. Mid level ridging across FL and much of the Gulf of Mexico slides east out over the Atlantic by late Tue. This is in response to a long wave trough initially from Nunavut Territory, Canada to the central high plains that shifts southeastward . stretching from Ontario Province, Canada to the southern plains on Tue. At the surface - eastward tracking high pressure in the Atlantic and ridging back over FL to the Gulf continues into Tue then gives way to a cold front . accompanying the mid level trough . moves into the Gulf and reaches from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan peninsula late Tue.

Today continues with stable and dry conditions as southeast 1000 to 700 mb flow becomes south-southeast. The flow continue to shift with southerly tonight resulting in increasing moisture. Not enough for any rainfall but enough for late night-early morning fog. On Tue the flow becomes more southerly to southwesterly as the moisture continues to increase . with model PWAT values in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range for the afternoon. This moisture along with the approaching mid level trough and front will support some isolated showers moving into the Nature Coast in the morning and spreading south across the rest of the area late morning and afternoon with showers and isolated thunderstorms.

For Wed-Sun: The mid level trough and cold front moves through early Wed with showers and thunderstorms then exits the area late Wed . taking the rain chances with it. Deep layer ridging builds over the western/central Gulf region Thu and moves across the area Fri with dry and stable conditions . keeping the forecast rain free. Temperatures begin to drop in the wake of the front and will be significantly cooler for a couple of days. During the weekend the deep ridging departs as a deep low forms in the Gulf region and increases moisture across the area . providing high rain chances. Model discrepancy continues . resulting in some uncertainty for the last couple of days of the forecast. The ECMWF is slower and more robust than the GFS.

AVIATION. 16/06Z. VFR conditions prevail as SKC gives way to FEW-SCT. Light easterly/VRBL winds become SE . with SSW at northern coastal terminals . at no more than 11kt.

MARINE. High pressure moving across the waters will slowly veer winds from southeast to southwest by early Tue at 15 knots or less. These winds will advect some moist air across cooler Gulf waters with patchy to areas of sea fog tonight into early Tue . generally north of Tarpon Springs. An approaching front will supply showers and some thunderstorms Tue afternoon through Wed and shift winds to northerly at up to 20 to 25 knots. High pressure builds in and moves east mid to late week with winds veering and diminishing.

FIRE WEATHER. Slightly drier air works in mid to late week but cooler temperatures will help keep minimum RH values above critical levels.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. TPA 81 68 80 56 / 0 0 50 60 FMY 85 70 84 64 / 0 10 30 60 GIF 83 67 83 58 / 0 0 60 60 SRQ 82 67 81 58 / 0 0 60 60 BKV 83 62 82 52 / 0 10 50 60 SPG 80 69 79 58 / 0 0 50 60

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. Gulf waters . None.

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER . 09/Rude DECISION SUPPORT . 42/Norman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 3 mi98 min E 5.1 G 8 68°F 1020.7 hPa
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 17 mi50 min E 4.1 G 5.1 65°F 73°F1019.8 hPa
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 19 mi50 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 66°F 72°F1019.7 hPa
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 25 mi107 min ESE 4.1 63°F 1021 hPa63°F

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL10 mi39 minENE 510.00 miFair62°F60°F93%1019.8 hPa
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL13 mi39 minE 310.00 miFair64°F61°F90%1020.1 hPa
Naples, Naples Municipal Airport, FL18 mi39 minENE 510.00 miFair64°F61°F90%1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRSW

Wind History from RSW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE3NE3NE5NE8E9NE6E12E8E8E9SE9E6NE5E5E6E6E6E9E6E5E4E5
1 day agoS7SW11SW9SW9SW9SW13W7W11W8
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NW9NW6NW6N3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmNE3E5CalmCalmE3E3CalmS8S7SW8SW9SW8SW6S6S8S8S10NW4SW8S6S5S6SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Coconut Point, Florida
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Coconut Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:35 AM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:52 AM EST     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:01 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:03 PM EST     1.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:51 PM EST     1.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.52.62.72.52.11.610.4-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.4-00.40.91.31.51.61.61.51.41.31.4

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:42 AM EST     0.92 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:09 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:41 AM EST     -1.44 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:02 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:33 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:28 PM EST     1.24 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:35 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:38 PM EST     -0.09 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:35 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.90.60.1-0.5-1-1.3-1.4-1.4-1.3-1-0.40.30.91.21.210.70.50.30.1-0.1-0.10.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.