Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM Moonrise 8:29 PM   Moonset 6:24 AM

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AMZ075 Northern Bahamas From 24n To 27n- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.Tonight - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Wed - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft atlc exposures, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Wed night - E to se winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft atlc exposures, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Thu - S to sw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Thu night - NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Fri night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat - NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

FXUS62 KMFL 251120 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 720 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Mid-lvl ridging over the Central US will gradually shift east through the late week period resulting in continued dynamic subsidence and reinforcement of the dry and stable airmass over SFL. At the surface initially weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will prevail today, with the weak gradient favoring a sea-breeze driven wind regime.
High temperatures will remain seasonable, ranging from the lower 80s near the east coast to the mid to upper 80s over the west coast/Interior.
An isolated shower or two can't be totally ruled out over the Interior this afternoon near the maximum sea-breeze convergence zone, but given the dry mid-lvls suspect most updrafts will struggle to break the cap, and therefore any cumulus buildups remain shallow. Given the light flow and dry airmass, another seasonably cool night can be expected tonight with lows generally in the 60s... certainly welcome for late April.

On Friday the earlier weak Atlantic high will be replaced by a stronger high building southward. This tightening of the pressure gradient will result in an increase in easterly flow and thus a weakening of the Gulf breeze circulation. Temperatures will remain similar over the east coast (although dewpoints will slightly increase), but slightly increase over the western half of the area, but should remain seasonable overall. Given the continued influence of mid-lvl ridging rainfall is once again not expected.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Mid-lvl ridging will establish itself over the eastern CONUS this weekend into early next week, displacing the storm track well north of the area.
At the surface (initially strong) high pressure over the western Atlantic will be the main feature of interest supporting breezy easterly winds through the period, although the high will gradually be weakening into next week. Generally dry conditions will prevail given the influence of the ridge, although some shallow coastal convergence generated showers can't be ruled out over the east coast and Atlantic waters. Temperatures will be characteristic of a strong easterly regime with the warmest highs (generally upper 80s) over the Interior/west coast with cooler highs (generally low to mid 80s) over the east coast. The reverse will be true with overnight lows with milder readings (low 70s) over the east coast and 60s over the Interior/west coast.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 717 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals during the next 24 hours. Light/vrb winds will shift east around 10-12kt after 15Z, then light/vrb again tonight.

MARINE
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Generally benign conditions are expected today as light easterly flow prevails over the area. Easterly winds and seas will increase Friday into the weekend as strong high pressure north of the area builds southward.

BEACHES
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

There will be a high risk of rip currents over the Palm Beach coastline today, with a moderate risk over the remainder of the east coast beaches.
The rip current risk will increase to high over all the east coast Friday into the weekend as easterly flow increases.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The dry airmass will remain in place through the end of the week over portions of Interior and SW Florida as generally easterly flow continues to prevail. Minimum RHs below 40% can be expected over these portions of the area through Friday, with localized values approaching 35% this afternoon. Although fuels will remain dry (the Significant Fire Potential Forecast remains in the orange category), winds should remain below fire weather headline criteria through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 82 70 82 73 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 83 65 83 69 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 83 68 83 70 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 82 68 82 70 / 0 10 0 10 Fort Lauderdale 81 70 80 72 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 81 70 81 72 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 84 69 84 71 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 81 68 81 70 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 82 69 82 71 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 85 67 88 68 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Saturday evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.

Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:00 AM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:54 AM EDT     3.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:50 PM EDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:07 PM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas, Tide feet

Eleuthera Island (west coast)
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:02 AM EDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:45 AM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:48 PM EDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:57 PM EDT     3.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Eleuthera Island (west coast), Bahamas, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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