Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Palm Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 8:12PM Monday July 6, 2020 3:55 PM EDT (19:55 UTC) Moonrise 8:39PMMoonset 6:35AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Palm Beach, FL
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location: 26.43, -77.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 061802 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 202 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

Short Term.

Rest of Today and Tuesday .

There is a stalled frontal boundary across the SE CONUS with a low pressure developing along that boundary. A mid-level low is just east of the Florida peninsula helping to aid in additional convective instability for another day of scattered to widespread thunderstorm coverage across. Abundant tropical moisture with PWAT values ranging from 1.9 to 2 inches across the area. Plenty of instability to allow for strong to severe storms over the interior and east coast. MLCAPE values around 2000-2500 J/kg with lapse rates around 6-6.5C/km and 500mb temps around -7C. Given these parameters the main impacts will be gusty microburst winds, frequent lightning and small hail. Also, light wind flow will remain with heavy downpours and slow storm motion with high rainfall rates that may lead to localized ponding of water and flooding of poor drainage areas.

As we move into Tuesday the low pressure system along the stalled out boundary begins to move further north and with a high pressure ridge trying to form in the Southern Gulf and Florida straits. However, as the low pulls northward there is a moisture tail that will remain across South Florida with another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Impacts will remain the same with overall light wind pattern heavy rainfall, gusty winds, lightning and small hail possible.

Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s across the area. Heat indices will continue to soar into the triple digits.

Long Term.

Wednesday through Friday .

Upper troughing will gradually lift from the Southeast CONUS into the Mid Atlantic States as downstream ridging prevails from the western Atlantic through the Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure system, potentially with subtropical characteristics, should lift north from the coastal Carolinas towards the Mid Atlantic region. Forecast model solutions suggest that decent lower tropospheric moisture will remain in place, with precipitable water values averaging 2 inches or greater much of the time. While convective robustness may be somewhat tempered by upper ridging and warmer temperatures aloft coverage should still be fairly decent given the light wind regime and forcing for ascent provided by sea breezes and later convective outflows. While a low end damaging wind threat can't be ruled out from wet microbursts, the primary weather related hazard should be heavy rainfall and possibly localized flooding owing to slow storm motions. Mesoscale dynamics will control the specific areas most likely to see these impacts, although current indications suggest portions of the east coast may be more susceptible given recent heavy rainfall over the past several days. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs well into the 90s away from the coasts, and afternoon heat index readings in the 100-108 degree range.

Saturday through Monday .

Large scale troughing will slowly advance through the eastern states as mid level ridging is shunted northeast into the western Atlantic. Concurrently, a weak perturbation along the southern ridge periphery will advance towards the Bahamas and South Florida over the weekend. Given very weak south to southwest steering flow, good low level moisture (precipitable water values generally at or above 2 inches), and low-level sea breeze and outflow boundary related forcings, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected. The primary hazard remains the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding of urban or poorly drained areas. Above average temperatures will likely continue.

Marine.

Generally benign boating conditions continue through the forecast period for all South Florida coastal waters. Only exception will be with any thunderstorm that may form, which will bring brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds.

Aviation (18Z TAFs).

Scattered to numerous storms continue this afternoon and evening over the interior and east coast. Therefore, VCTS for all terminals and TEMPOs for MVFR/IFR cigs and vis in any storms that move over terminals. Light winds return overnight. Another round of showers and storms tomorrow afternoon.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 77 92 78 92 / 30 50 20 40 Fort Lauderdale 79 90 81 91 / 30 50 20 40 Miami 79 92 80 92 / 30 50 20 40 Naples 77 93 78 94 / 20 30 20 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None. Short Term and Aviation/Marine . 33/Kelly Long Term . 34/SPM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boca Raton, Boca Raton Airport, FL157 mi65 minW 510.00 miA Few Clouds84°F78°F84%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBCT

Wind History from BCT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8N12--CalmS5
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S4W3NW3--------------CalmCalmSE3SE66SE8SE10
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SE12SW4S4SE6NW4--NE7--------------CalmCalmCalmCalmW6W58SE6
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S8S8SW8W6SW4--------------CalmCalm--CalmN5CalmSE8SE8SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Pelican Harbour, Abaco Island, Bahamas
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Pelican Harbour
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:56 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:52 AM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:51 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:14 PM EDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.821.20.70.50.81.322.63.13.232.51.91.20.70.60.91.42.22.93.53.73.6

Tide / Current Tables for Eleuthera Island (west coast), Bahamas
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Eleuthera Island (west coast)
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Mon -- 06:00 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:46 AM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:54 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.73.32.721.30.80.60.81.322.633.12.92.41.91.30.90.70.91.52.22.93.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.