Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 12:18 PM   Moonset 1:07 AM

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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1001 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening - .
Rest of today - S sw winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt along the coast to S sw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt in the gulf stream. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S se 3 ft at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt along the coast to W sw 15 to 20 kt in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt becoming S 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: W sw 3 ft at 4 seconds and N ne 2 ft at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of tstms in the morning. Showers. Tstms likely. Thu night - W sw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: N 2 ft at 6 seconds and sw 1 foot at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers late in the evening. A slight chance of tstms through the night. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Fri - Along the coast, sw winds around 5 kt becoming se 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. In the gulf stream, se winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: N 2 ft at 6 seconds and sw 1 foot at 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms through the day. Fri night - Along the coast, S winds 15 to 20 kt. In the gulf stream, S winds 15 to 20 kt becoming around 10 kt in the morning. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: S se 1 foot at 3 seconds and N 1 foot at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers through the night. A slight chance of tstms after midnight. Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms. Sat night - S sw winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun - S sw winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1000 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis -
hazardous marine conditions will continue across the atlantic waters as a fresh to strong southerly wind flow becomes southwesterly later today. These winds will slowly decrease heading into late week. Across the gulf, a moderate to fresh south southwesterly wind flow will continue into late week. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will be possible across all local waters each day.
gulf stream hazards: south to southwest winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt through today.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 14, 2024 at 12 utc - .
9 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 12 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 7 nautical miles southeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 151720 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 120 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

A frontal boundary attendant to a mid-level trough will slowly advect southward and approach south-central Florida on Thursday, creating a slight wind shift to a westerly direction over most of the region and possibly WNW for northern portions of the CWA This steadily westerly flow will become brisk in the low to mid levels and breezy at the surface, likely limiting the infiltration of an east coast sea breeze. With that in mind, any convection is expected to be confined to the east coast metro areas or the nearshore Atlantic waters even if a sea breeze boundary forms. While the overall pattern will involve weak forcing (broad longwave mid-to- upper level trough and weak frontal boundary), there will be sufficient moisture, surface heating, and cooler temps aloft (-8 to -9 deg C at 500mb) to support a few thunderstorms. These storms could become strong to severe as well, especially near the Lake Okeechobee region this afternoon and evening where forcing will be strongest and temps aloft will be coolest, creating the largest instability in the area. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the lake region into a marginal risk because of this. The trough will be exiting the area during the latter half of the Thursday, but some convective showers and storms will remain possible through most of the day before the axis shifts offshore and ridging begins to rebuild.

With elevated moisture and an ongoing hot pattern, dew points will be on the higher side in the mid to upper 70s and the westerly flow will place the west coast in the low 90s with the east coast in the mid to upper 90s. This combination of hot temps and higher dew points will spark peak heat indices into the triple digits and could rise as high as 104-108 degrees for a short duration for the east coast metro. This could necessitate a Heat Advisory at some point, but at this time the highest indices are not expected to be of long enough duration (2 or more hours) to issue one and cloud cover from convection should help limit this as well but this will be monitored. West coast areas are not expected to see heat indices quite as high as the east coast but could still hit 102-106 degrees. Overall, whether an advisory is issued or not, anyone sensitive to heat should plan to avoid extended time outside or to take cooling breaks and stay hydrated if required to be outside.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The main story through this forecast period will be the potential for hazardous heat which will linger through most of the weekend.
Most of South Florida could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat Advisory through Saturday and this potential will be monitored through the week. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s area-wide each afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for coastal areas with portions of interior South Florida potentially approaching the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro mid to late week could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s.
This could lead to a period of several days where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.

By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat late in the period. If the front stalls to the north, the excessive heat risk could linger through the end of the forecast period as southerly flow continues. Guidance is beginning to trend towards the amplification of the mid-level trough along the Atlantic coast of Florida late in the period that could potentially provide extra support to push the boundary through the area to close out the extended forecast period early next week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail throughout the forecast period, but there will be some scattered showers and storms along the east coast that primarily affects KPBI and KFLL/FXE. VCTS is in effect for KPBI and VCSH for the others. Southwesterly winds are expected for the entire period across all terminals, although a slight shift further to near due westerly is likely on Thursday afternoon. Another round of showers and isolated storms is likely for tomorrow.

MARINE
Issued at 109 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Winds have fallen below advisory levels as of late this morning with seas expected at 2-3 feet across all local waters through tomorrow.
There will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Atlantic waters today and tomorrow, which could create locally chaotic seas at times and gusty winds. Mainly benign conditions are then expected for the end of the week.

BEACHES
Issued at 109 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

A moderate rip current risk will linger today as winds only slowly subside and onshore flow in the seabreeze zone continues. The risk for rip currents should lessen towards the end of the week as the low across the Mid-Atlantic moves further away.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 79 94 77 93 / 30 60 10 20 West Kendall 77 96 74 95 / 30 50 0 20 Opa-Locka 78 96 76 95 / 30 60 10 20 Homestead 78 94 76 93 / 40 40 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 79 93 76 91 / 30 70 10 20 N Ft Lauderdale 78 93 76 92 / 20 70 10 20 Pembroke Pines 79 96 77 96 / 30 70 10 20 West Palm Beach 75 93 73 93 / 30 70 10 20 Boca Raton 77 94 75 93 / 20 70 10 20 Naples 79 90 77 91 / 30 40 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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South Delray Beach
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Wed -- 02:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:29 AM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 11:08 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:54 PM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:23 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

South Delray Beach, ICWW, Florida, Tide feet

Lake Wyman
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Wed -- 02:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:25 AM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 10:58 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:50 PM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:13 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lake Wyman, ICWW, Florida, Tide feet

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