Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for San Carlos Park, FL

DISCUSSION
Upper shortwave trough in S Gulf continues to eject vort maxes over the E Gulf the FL Peninsula combining with diurnal heating and the Gulf seabreeze this afternoon producing isolated showers and a few thunderstorms that are expected to move NEward and become more widespread later this afternoon. Some storms may be strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail the main threats as SPC keeps the entire peninsula in a marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe storms. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours could also accompany any storm that develops.

A cold front sweeps through the area Monday with gusty humid southerly flow and isolated showers well ahead of the front then a broken pre frontal line of showers and thunderstorms moves through the Nature Coast late morning to early afternoon then further S thru the afternoon then SW FL in the evening. SPC has placed most of the area north of I4 in a marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe weather and Levy County in a slight risk (2 of 5). As the storms move southeast over the area, they are expected to weaken. Gusty winds over the coastal waters will increase wave action producing a rip current risk Monday and Tuesday.

Strong Canadian high pressure building into the region Monday night and Tuesday will filter a much cooler and drier airmass into the area with temperatures 5-10+ degrees below normal climate levels through mid week. High pressure weakens and slowly moves along the Eastern Seaboard and eventually moderates conditions into next weekend.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Seabreeze SHRA/TSRA ongoing with brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys and gusty winds in and near stronger cells thru 21Z near the coast and thru 00Z inland. VFR conditions return areawide after 00Z-02Z. A cold front will move into the area Monday with a broken line of SHRA/TSRA and flight restrictions ahead of the front aft 15Z likely.

MARINE
A cold front will move through the region Monday with building southerly winds and seas tonight into Monday. Ahead of the front Monday, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds and lightning will move over the waters producing hazardous boating conditions. Strong high pressure will build into Tuesday will breezy northerly winds and choppy elevated seas keeping conditions hazardous before slowly subsiding by Wednesday as winds shift easterly through the end of the week.

FIRE WEATHER
A cold front will move through the region Monday with showers and thunderstorms likely. Strong high pressure building into the region Tuesday will filter a much cooler and drier airmass over the area with min RHs falling below critical values mainly for northern counties. Moisture increases Wednesday and Thursday with increased RH values. Another high pressure in the region will drop min RHs areawide Friday into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 70 82 49 62 / 30 80 20 0 FMY 69 85 56 68 / 40 60 60 10 GIF 67 84 49 62 / 40 80 30 0 SRQ 70 83 49 64 / 30 70 30 0 BKV 64 83 41 62 / 40 80 20 0 SPG 73 82 54 64 / 30 80 20 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.