Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for McGregor, FL
May 14, 2024 11:56 PM EDT (03:56 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:39 AM Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 11:31 AM Moonset 12:39 AM |
GMZ836 Charlotte Harbor And Pine Island Sound- 802 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 802 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis - A frontal boundary will approach the northern waters overnight with a band of showers/thunderstorms developing around midnight. The storms will push gradually south across the northern and central waters late tonight and Wednesday. A few storms may be strong to severe. Scec conditions will occur over portions of the waters tonight and Wednesday due to gusty southwest winds. High pressure will build over the waters in the wake of the front Thursday and Friday with winds and seas gradually subsiding.
FXUS62 KTBW 142353 AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 753 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
New UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 710 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Brief reprieve this evening as the forecast area is between systems. A former MCS over the central Gulf of Mexico/loop current has rapidly dissipated during the past few hours as it moved east toward the eastern Gulf. Residual high cloudiness is currently spreading over west central and southwest Florida and will persist for the next several hours.
Otherwise, a frontal boundary will approach north Florida overnight with a band of showers and thunderstorms redeveloping across north Florida and the northeast Gulf of Mexico around or shortly after midnight as the atmosphere gradually destabilizes.
There is a slight chance for severe thunderstorms across Levy county where BWD will be in the range of 30 to 40 knots late tonight and a LLJ of similar strength, along with mid level CAA with a pocket of 50T's in the -9 to -11 range advecting across the region. This will create conditions favorable for damaging wind gusts and hail with stronger updrafts.
The boundary/line of showers and storms will sink very slowly south late tonight and Wednesday as it will be nearly parallel to the U/L flow. A marginal risk for severe storms will extend across the central Florida peninsula associated with the boundary mainly due to the mid level cold pocket, daytime heating increasing convective instability, and sustained LLJ. However, it appears that the best U/L support will be exiting east of the area which will be an inhibiting factor and should lead to decreasing areal coverage/weakening trend. Would suspect best chance for stronger storms would be over the interior during the afternoon hours, if a west coast sea breeze boundary is able to develop and push inland due to the southwest flow...which would aid in creating additional boundary collisions.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A shortwave trough continues to advance eastward across the Mississippi Valley today with the associated trailing cold front stretching southward into the Gulf of Mexico. A series of impulses embedded along the southern periphery of the trough continue to bring clusters of storms from the Gulf of Mexico across the Florida peninsula with a line of storms that moved through earlier and brought reports of severe wind gusts is now moving off the Atlantic coast as well as another cluster of storms currently in the east-central Gulf. Despite recent satellite imagery showing an organized cloud shield with cloud tops as cold as around -70C, latest CAMs generally show a weakening trend with this feature as it approaches the west central FL coast by this evening but a brief severe risk may exist if this activity can hold together enough.
The next and more likely severe risk will occur on Wednesday as the trough shifts east and pushes a southward sagging cold front into central Florida where this frontal boundary will eventually stall.
In addition to the frontal boundary, strong westerly winds aloft of 80+ kts at 300mb will move across the area and this will increase deep layer shear with 0-6 km bulk shear values around 35-45 kts.
This combined with good CAPE values as high as 3000 J/kg and 500mb temps around -10C will support scattered to numerous convection across the region with potential for damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes and/or waterspouts. In addition to the severe risk, WPC has placed much of the region in a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall and while previous 30 day rainfall observations compared to percent of normal are generally in the lowest 10th-25th percentile (or even less in isolated areas), the westerly flow aloft should align well with the west-to-east oriented frontal boundary to possibly support training of storms. Regardless, this will be an opportunity for very needed rain across much of the area, especially areas that haven't receive too much precipitation in recent days but we be monitoring for any training/flooding potential, which would be rather localized if anything does occur at all.
Transient ridging moves across the area by Thursday and this will bring a decrease to rain chances with PoPs less than 15% from Tampa Bay northward, though isolated to scattered storms will be possible for southern portions of the forecast area where deeper moisture will exist and interacts with the lingering frontal boundary. This frontal boundary then lifts north as a warm front by Friday as low pressure system in the central US shifts across the OH valley and drives the next cold front towards the area for the upcoming weekend. As a result, PoPs will be on the increase once again over the weekend as models show this frontal boundary approaching late Saturday into Sunday. Despite a possible frontal passage by early next week, a model consensus of PoPs still supports precipitation chances into the end of the forecast period as troughing aloft may linger over the area, though it appears overall precipitation coverage should still be on a decreasing trend into early week.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 VFR conditions expected this evening at all terminals. A few showers may develop late tonight/early tomorrow morning vcnty PIE/TPA with LCL MVFR CIGs /VSBYs. A band of showers/thunderstorms will approach PIE/TPA/LAL tomorrow afternoon with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs. Otherwise VFR CIGs will prevail. Southern terminals will remain VFR tonight and Wednesday.
MARINE
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Several more storm clusters are expected to move across the Gulf waters with the next round possibly occurring this evening, though there remains uncertainty with how much of this activity will hold together. However, a cold front will gradually push southward across the region with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms spreading from north to south throughout the day.
Some of this activity to produce strong winds, waterspouts, lightning, and torrential downpours. In addition, small craft exercise cautionary levels will be possible on Wednesday outside of thunderstorms as gusty southwest winds will be in place throughout the day. Winds then decrease late week as weak high pressure builds in with decreasing rain chances, though another cold front will arrive by next weekend with increasing precipitation chances once again.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Storm clusters will continue to move across the area ahead of a cold front with the next cluster possibly approaching the area this evening. However, better rain chances area-wide will occur on Wednesday as a cold front gradually pushes southward across the region with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as well as needed rainfall to many areas. Drier weather then returns late week as weak high pressure builds in with minimum RH values dropping into the upper 30 percent range for interior areas, though red flag conditions are not expected at this time.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 86 76 88 / 50 90 20 10 FMY 79 91 77 91 / 10 50 40 40 GIF 74 88 72 92 / 40 70 20 10 SRQ 77 88 76 89 / 40 70 40 10 BKV 71 87 67 90 / 60 80 10 10 SPG 79 85 78 87 / 50 90 30 10
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 753 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
New UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 710 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Brief reprieve this evening as the forecast area is between systems. A former MCS over the central Gulf of Mexico/loop current has rapidly dissipated during the past few hours as it moved east toward the eastern Gulf. Residual high cloudiness is currently spreading over west central and southwest Florida and will persist for the next several hours.
Otherwise, a frontal boundary will approach north Florida overnight with a band of showers and thunderstorms redeveloping across north Florida and the northeast Gulf of Mexico around or shortly after midnight as the atmosphere gradually destabilizes.
There is a slight chance for severe thunderstorms across Levy county where BWD will be in the range of 30 to 40 knots late tonight and a LLJ of similar strength, along with mid level CAA with a pocket of 50T's in the -9 to -11 range advecting across the region. This will create conditions favorable for damaging wind gusts and hail with stronger updrafts.
The boundary/line of showers and storms will sink very slowly south late tonight and Wednesday as it will be nearly parallel to the U/L flow. A marginal risk for severe storms will extend across the central Florida peninsula associated with the boundary mainly due to the mid level cold pocket, daytime heating increasing convective instability, and sustained LLJ. However, it appears that the best U/L support will be exiting east of the area which will be an inhibiting factor and should lead to decreasing areal coverage/weakening trend. Would suspect best chance for stronger storms would be over the interior during the afternoon hours, if a west coast sea breeze boundary is able to develop and push inland due to the southwest flow...which would aid in creating additional boundary collisions.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A shortwave trough continues to advance eastward across the Mississippi Valley today with the associated trailing cold front stretching southward into the Gulf of Mexico. A series of impulses embedded along the southern periphery of the trough continue to bring clusters of storms from the Gulf of Mexico across the Florida peninsula with a line of storms that moved through earlier and brought reports of severe wind gusts is now moving off the Atlantic coast as well as another cluster of storms currently in the east-central Gulf. Despite recent satellite imagery showing an organized cloud shield with cloud tops as cold as around -70C, latest CAMs generally show a weakening trend with this feature as it approaches the west central FL coast by this evening but a brief severe risk may exist if this activity can hold together enough.
The next and more likely severe risk will occur on Wednesday as the trough shifts east and pushes a southward sagging cold front into central Florida where this frontal boundary will eventually stall.
In addition to the frontal boundary, strong westerly winds aloft of 80+ kts at 300mb will move across the area and this will increase deep layer shear with 0-6 km bulk shear values around 35-45 kts.
This combined with good CAPE values as high as 3000 J/kg and 500mb temps around -10C will support scattered to numerous convection across the region with potential for damaging wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes and/or waterspouts. In addition to the severe risk, WPC has placed much of the region in a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall and while previous 30 day rainfall observations compared to percent of normal are generally in the lowest 10th-25th percentile (or even less in isolated areas), the westerly flow aloft should align well with the west-to-east oriented frontal boundary to possibly support training of storms. Regardless, this will be an opportunity for very needed rain across much of the area, especially areas that haven't receive too much precipitation in recent days but we be monitoring for any training/flooding potential, which would be rather localized if anything does occur at all.
Transient ridging moves across the area by Thursday and this will bring a decrease to rain chances with PoPs less than 15% from Tampa Bay northward, though isolated to scattered storms will be possible for southern portions of the forecast area where deeper moisture will exist and interacts with the lingering frontal boundary. This frontal boundary then lifts north as a warm front by Friday as low pressure system in the central US shifts across the OH valley and drives the next cold front towards the area for the upcoming weekend. As a result, PoPs will be on the increase once again over the weekend as models show this frontal boundary approaching late Saturday into Sunday. Despite a possible frontal passage by early next week, a model consensus of PoPs still supports precipitation chances into the end of the forecast period as troughing aloft may linger over the area, though it appears overall precipitation coverage should still be on a decreasing trend into early week.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 VFR conditions expected this evening at all terminals. A few showers may develop late tonight/early tomorrow morning vcnty PIE/TPA with LCL MVFR CIGs /VSBYs. A band of showers/thunderstorms will approach PIE/TPA/LAL tomorrow afternoon with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs. Otherwise VFR CIGs will prevail. Southern terminals will remain VFR tonight and Wednesday.
MARINE
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Several more storm clusters are expected to move across the Gulf waters with the next round possibly occurring this evening, though there remains uncertainty with how much of this activity will hold together. However, a cold front will gradually push southward across the region with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms spreading from north to south throughout the day.
Some of this activity to produce strong winds, waterspouts, lightning, and torrential downpours. In addition, small craft exercise cautionary levels will be possible on Wednesday outside of thunderstorms as gusty southwest winds will be in place throughout the day. Winds then decrease late week as weak high pressure builds in with decreasing rain chances, though another cold front will arrive by next weekend with increasing precipitation chances once again.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Storm clusters will continue to move across the area ahead of a cold front with the next cluster possibly approaching the area this evening. However, better rain chances area-wide will occur on Wednesday as a cold front gradually pushes southward across the region with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as well as needed rainfall to many areas. Drier weather then returns late week as weak high pressure builds in with minimum RH values dropping into the upper 30 percent range for interior areas, though red flag conditions are not expected at this time.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 86 76 88 / 50 90 20 10 FMY 79 91 77 91 / 10 50 40 40 GIF 74 88 72 92 / 40 70 20 10 SRQ 77 88 76 89 / 40 70 40 10 BKV 71 87 67 90 / 60 80 10 10 SPG 79 85 78 87 / 50 90 30 10
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL | 7 mi | 56 min | S 4.1G | 83°F | 87°F | 29.92 | ||
| RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL | 37 mi | 71 min | SSW 1.9 | 80°F | 29.95 | 77°F | ||
| VENF1 - Venice, FL | 45 mi | 56 min | S 19G | 83°F | 81°F | 29.87 | 81°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFMY PAGE FIELD,FL | 4 sm | 63 min | S 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 82°F | 75°F | 79% | 29.90 | |
| KRSW SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INTL,FL | 9 sm | 63 min | SSW 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 81°F | 75°F | 84% | 29.91 |
Cape Coral Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:39 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:30 AM EDT -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 12:30 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:53 PM EDT 0.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:39 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:30 AM EDT -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 12:30 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:53 PM EDT 0.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cape Coral Bridge, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0 |
| 4 am |
| -0 |
| 5 am |
| -0 |
| 6 am |
| 0 |
| 7 am |
| 0.1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.4 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.7 |
Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:39 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 02:23 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:48 AM EDT 0.81 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:19 PM EDT 0.14 knots Min Flood
Tue -- 12:31 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:29 PM EDT 0.57 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:57 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:39 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 02:23 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:48 AM EDT 0.81 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:19 PM EDT 0.14 knots Min Flood
Tue -- 12:31 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:29 PM EDT 0.57 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:57 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1.1 |
| 1 am |
| -0.7 |
| 2 am |
| -0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.6 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 0.8 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| -0 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| -1 |
Tampa Bay Area, FL,
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