Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. James City, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 6:54PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 9:49 AM EDT (13:49 UTC) Moonrise 12:26AMMoonset 2:19PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 358 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
Today..South winds around 5 knots then becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Tonight..North winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Thursday..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..East winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the evening.
Friday..East winds around 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 358 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
Synopsis..Winds through the remainder of Tuesday morning hold south to southwesterly around 10 knots. A cold front will push through from northwest to southeast Tuesday afternoon and evening shifting winds briefly to a northwesterly direction and then northeasterly Tuesday night. Winds pick up behind the front to between 15 and 20 knots with rougher seas. Winds then shift more easterly for Thursday, but remain elevated around 15 knots.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. James City, FL
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location: 26.57, -82.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Tampa Bay, FL
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Fxus62 ktbw 221147
afdtbw
area forecast discussion
national weather service tampa bay ruskin fl
747 am edt Tue oct 22 2019

Aviation
Fog this morning is bringing anywhere between MVFR conditions to
lifr conditions. Fog will burn off in next couple of hours leading
to vrf conditions for the rest of the day. Early tomorrow morning
MVFR conditions will be possible with fog at pgd, fmy, and rsw.

Winds will be shifting throughout the TAF period starting out from
the southwest then shifting to northwest but should remain below
10 knots.

Prev discussion issued 347 am edt Tue oct 22 2019
short term...

a fierce battle is underway between an advancing cold front,
associated with a deep trough axis extending from the gulf coast to
the great lakes region, and an upper level ridge, situated over the
bahamas and extending across the florida peninsula into the eastern
gulf of mexico. Infrared satellite imagery continues to show
convection across the panhandle, although it has weakened
substantially. Some cloud tops reached an estimated -85 degrees
celsius overnight, indicating very healthy and robust convection
associated with strong vertical ascent mechanisms. This is in stark
contrast with the very quiet and generally clear skies across the
southern portion of the state in the region firmly under the
influence of the ridge.

Ultimately, the far-superior ridge will win this battle. As the
front continues pushing ahead with the southward advance, the trough
axis providing the upper-level support will retreat to the north,
leaving the frontal system exposed. While some limited gains will be
made, this will be done at the expense of the cold front's energy.

As such, some shower activity is expected, but with frontal ascent
and diurnal heating being the only lifting mechanisms in the face of
strong upper-level stability, activity will be limited. Rain chances
will generally remain highest along the nature coast and tampa bay
before diminishing further to the south. Much of SW florida will
hardly notice the front at all, with only a very slight drying for a
day or so and a very slight drop in temperatures.

Long term...

conditions will remain fairly dry late Wednesday and Thursday across
the state, and Thursday morning in particular will feel pretty nice.

Northern areas will certainly notice fall in the air, but this will
not last. Details grow more fuzzy as the weekend approaches, but
another shortwave trough axis propagating from the intermountain
west will attempt to take the ridge head-on after being cut-off from
another trough axis, while an upper level low riding along the edge
of the ridge will attempt to flank the high pressue. The combination
of these systems will quickly bring moisture back into the
equation by Friday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop, but the ridge will still remain, despite a
brief weakening when both systems are on the offense. Rain chances
are expected to be higher Friday, through the weekend. However,
the exact intensity of these systems and how much they influence
the ridge will play a big role in how much conditions dry out. As
the front being dragged by the trough approaches Sunday into
Monday, rain chances remain in the forecast. As is the case with
the current system, model guidance is not very optimistic in this
frontal system holding together well as it approaches. Overall,
humid and warm conditions with daily chances for rain exist
through the weekend, but a slight hint of fall could be in the
cards again for early next week.

Marine...

showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible in coastal waters
today, especially from tampa bay northward, as a front passes
through the area. Winds begin to pick up towards cautionary levels
late tomorrow night and extending into Thursday. Unsettled weather
remains possible in coastal waters into the weekend and early next
week as additional systems move into the region.

Fire weather...

fire weather concerns remain low as values remain above critical
levels through the week.

Fog potential... Some patchy fog is being observed across the area
this morning, but should quickly burn off by mid-morning. As
conditions dry out after the frontal passage, no further fog is
expected at this time.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tpa 87 67 82 70 30 10 0 0
fmy 89 73 87 73 10 10 30 10
gif 90 68 83 70 20 10 0 0
srq 89 70 86 71 30 10 0 0
bkv 89 63 81 66 30 10 0 0
spg 88 69 85 72 30 10 0 0

Tbw watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Gulf waters... None.

Short term aviation marine fire weather... 27 shiveley
mid term long term decision support... 74 wynn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL 12 mi50 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 81°F 84°F1016.5 hPa (+0.6)
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 15 mi56 min SSE 4.1 G 6 82°F 1017.5 hPa
NPSF1 - 8725110 - Naples, FL 33 mi50 min SE 2.9 G 7 82°F 84°F1016.6 hPa (+0.0)
VENF1 - Venice, FL 40 mi50 min S 7 G 8 82°F 83°F1016.6 hPa (+0.8)79°F
RKXF1 - Rookery Bay Reserve, FL 41 mi65 min E 2.9 76°F 1018 hPa

Wind History for Naples, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Myers, Page Field, FL11 mi57 minSSE 39.00 miFair80°F75°F87%1016.7 hPa
Fort Myers, Southwest Florida International Airport, FL17 mi57 minN 08.00 miFair79°F77°F94%1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMY

Wind History from FMY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SW7SW10S9S9SW8SW10SW10
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SW8S6S4S3CalmSE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3
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Tide / Current Tables for Tropical Homesites Landing, Pine Island, Florida
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Tropical Homesites Landing
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:40 AM EDT     1.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:09 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:00 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.51.41.41.51.61.81.921.91.81.61.310.70.40.20.20.20.50.81.11.31.5

Tide / Current Tables for Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current
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Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:59 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:49 AM EDT     -0.08 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:39 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT     0.59 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:53 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:35 PM EDT     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:38 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT     0.92 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0-0.10.10.40.60.50.3-0-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.40.20.60.90.90.90.80.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tampa Bay, FL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.