Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Clarke Shores, FL

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 8:16PM Thursday July 18, 2019 5:26 AM EDT (09:26 UTC) Moonrise 8:45PMMoonset 7:02AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 346 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday through Sunday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots along the coast to southeast around 10 knots in the gulf stream. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Winds southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 346 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis.. High pressure over the western atlantic should keep the wind out of the east to southeast through the weekend, with seas running up to 2 feet at times. The only marine concern is convection. Showers and Thunderstorms will continue to be possible and may bring locally hazardous conditions to the south florida waters into next week.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jul 18, 2019 at 1200 utc... 10 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 13 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 8 nautical miles northeast of lake worth. 10 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Clarke Shores, FL
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location: 26.65, -80.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 180637
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
237 am edt Thu jul 18 2019

Discussion
Interesting times in the sub-tropics as south florida sits under a
ridge of atlantic high pressure. To the north, the mid-latitudes are
alive with a trough of low pressure sitting over the northeastern
united states. The surface flow around the atlantic high pressure
will continue out of the southeast with plenty of tropical moisture
to continue across the region through the coming days.

Today and tonight: a mid-level trough will push across the area
today with increasing rain and storm chances this morning over the
east coast with the convective focus shifting westward as the day
continues. Afternoon and evening convection over the interior and
gulf coast could see some enhancement from the presence of this
feature. It would not be surprising that some stronger pulse storms
today could be possible with the potential for creating gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. 500 mb temperatures
cooling to -8 deg c today point towards steeper lapse rates for
convection. The shear profile today appears to be lacking in both
directional and magnitudal shear on the larger scale, so any shear
will likely be local to boundary interactions. Temperatures may not
be as warm as in previous days due to the earlier convective start
expected but many areas could still reach into the mid 90s inland
and west today. Convection could linger into the evening, but should
push westward and eventually into the gulf with the clearance of the
mid-level trough from the area.

Friday: south florida remains under the moist southeasterly flow of
the atlantic high. The mid-level trough lingers over the eastern
gulf of mexico, potentially keeping convection active over the
waters with rain chances that could sneak back towards the coast
depending on the location of the trough. The convection on Friday
will generally be diurnally driven along the sea breezes, leading to
a slightly drier forecast compared to today. Temperatures will once
again have a chance to warm with much of the area expected to reach
into the mid 90s with some upper 90s not outside the realm of
possibility inland.

The weekend: the pattern becomes more unsettled for the weekend as
the mid-latitudes come knocking on our door with a trough digging
into the southeastern united states. To the south, the mid-level
feature trapped over the northeastern gulf becomes a bit more
interesting as it interacts with the approaching trough. As the
weekend approaches, we will have to watch the status of this
feature for potential impacts to portions of the region.

Additional rainfall and storm coverage is possible, particularly
if this mid-level feature is able to develop a bit more and a
surface feature were to also develop. The large scale mid-level
trough will settle over the eastern seaboard of the united states
amplifying southwestward into southern florida. This will allow
for higher rain chances over the weekend mainly from diurnal
convection related to the sea breeze circulations each afternoon
and evening. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with little
relief expected.

Next week: as Monday rolls around, a tropical wave currently near
55w may push close to the region. If not the wave itself,
possibly the associated moisture could reach our area. This could
lead to some higher rain and storm chances. Timing is becoming
more similar between the global guidance early next week with this
feature. Coincidentally, a frontal boundary could push into the
southeastern united states as the moisture from this easterly wave
turns north along the edge of the surface high, enhancing the
heavy rain potential in the extended forecast period across a good
portion of the state and region. A few model solutions get very
complicated with a mid-level feature potentially even becoming
cutoff from the main trough. At this point, things in the extended
are somewhat uncertain and are worth monitoring in case the gulf
of mexico becomes a bit more active. The current solution brings a
rainy, stormy pattern north of our area but any potential shift
like the trough reaching southward into our area or a surface low
possibly developing in the gulf could bring substantial changes
to the extended forecast for next week.

Marine
Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be the main
hazards, particularly around lake okeechobee and the gulf coastal
waters. Overnight storms are also possible, particularly over the
atlantic and gulf waters. An easterly wave, or the associated
moisture, could push into the region early next week bringing an
increase in rain and storm chances and possibly increasing winds and
seas.

Prev discussion issued 141 am edt Thu jul 18 2019
aviation...

vfr conditions to prevail at the TAF sites, but will have to
watch for an increase in showers this morning moving onshore from
the atlantic mainly from pbi-fll between 13z-17z. For now vcsh
should handle this scenario and updates may be needed later as
showers develop. Showers tsra will then increase over the interior
peninsula after 17z and move NW towards kapf through at least
00z. Vcts is included at kapf after 18z, with possible timing
updates needed as the day progresses.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 91 79 92 79 40 20 20 20
fort lauderdale 91 80 91 80 30 20 20 30
miami 91 80 92 80 30 20 20 20
naples 93 76 92 77 40 20 30 20

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 02 rag
marine... 02 rag
aviation... 59 rm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 3 mi57 min SE 11 G 12 84°F 85°F1018.6 hPa
PEGF1 39 mi63 min E 9.9 G 12 84°F 1017.5 hPa
PVGF1 - Port Everglades Channel, FL 39 mi33 min ESE 1.9 G 6 84°F 1017.5 hPa76°F
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 56 mi27 min SE 6 G 7 82°F 1018.1 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Palm Beach - Palm Beach International Airport, FL4 mi34 minSE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F73°F74%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from PBI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE6SE9SE9E10SE10SE10E12E10E11SE11E11E11E9SE8SE6SE6E6E5SE4E7SE6SE9SE7
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2 days agoE7E7E9E8SE11E8
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Tide / Current Tables for West Palm Beach Canal, Lake Worth, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Palm Beach, Lake Worth, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.