Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 7:12 PM Moonrise 4:26 AM   Moonset 5:40 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

PMZ019 Central Gulf Of California- 900 Am Pdt Mon May 6 2024
Today - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 16 seconds. Tonight - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 8 seconds. Tue - Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 14 seconds.Tue night - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 14 seconds. Wed - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 11 seconds. Wed night - W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 11 seconds. Thu - NW to N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 11 seconds. Thu night - W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 10 seconds. Fri - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 10 seconds. Fri night - W to nw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 10 seconds.

FXUS65 KTWC 062031 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 130 PM MST Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Cooler today with less wind, although still breezy at times, especially to the east of Tucson. Breezy to locally windy conditions continue Tuesday and Wednesday, especially east of Tucson as high temperatures warm back up to around normal. Friday through the upcoming weekend, expect less wind and highs several degrees above normal.

DISCUSSION
We are on the back side of the system which brought windy conditions to southeast Arizona yesterday, which means cooler high temperatures today and readings topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s in valley locations (which is 4-6 degrees below normal).
Still some breezy afternoon and early evening west/northwest winds over portions of Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties, with speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph.

The models show a system dropping into the Great Basin from the north during the middle of the week. The models are hinting at some cut off characteristics with this system and currently keep it to our north through the weekend. This scenario keeps dry westerly flow in place across southeast Arizona this week. The gradients tighten on Tuesday and Wednesday in response to this system dropping into the Great Basin, resulting in breezy conditions during the mid to late afternoon hours especially to the east of Tucson over portions of Cochise and Graham counties. Wind speeds will be near critical fire weather thresholds Tuesday and may even exceed those thresholds for an hour or two on Wednesday in a few locations. However at this time, this appears to be a very borderline event, in terms of not only winds speeds, but duration and areal extent. Have elected to hold off on any RFW headlines at this time. If subsequent guidance values show wind speeds increasing for Wednesday, an RFW would then likely be needed. Otherwise, high temperatures warm back up to right around normal both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thursday, highs continue to top out right around normal, with less wind and typical May afternoon/early evening breezy conditions due to strong surface heating.

Friday through the weekend, highs warm to 2-4 degrees above normal with typical afternoon breeziness.

AVIATION
Valid through 08/00Z.
Clear skies/SKC conditions thru the forecast period. SFC wind WLY/NWLY at 9-18 kts and gusts to 18-28 kts thru 07/02Z, with the strongest wind east of KTUS in the vicinity of KSAD, KDUG and KALK.
SFC wind less than 12 kts and variable in direction between 07/02Z and 07/18Z. Aft 07/18Z, SFC wind SWLY thru NWLY at 12-20 kts and gusts to 20-30 kts, with the strongest wind to the east of KTUS.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures will be 4-6 degrees below normal today, warming to right around normal Tuesday through Thursday.
Highs then climb to 2-4 degrees above normal Friday through the upcoming weekend. This week min RHs values will be in the single digits to lower teens in the valleys, with values generally in the teens for the mountains.

Breezy afternoon/early evening winds will persist through Wednesday, especially to the east of Tucson. Winds diminish Thursday into the weekend, although typical May afternoon gustiness can be expected.
Wind speeds both Tuesday and Wednesday will be near critical levels for a couple of hours during the mid to late afternoon hours across portions of Cochise and Graham counties. At this time, the duration and geographical area/extent of critical wind speeds do not warrant RFW headlines.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Yavaros
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:51 AM MST     -0.20 meters Low Tide
Mon -- 04:26 AM MST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:35 AM MST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:12 AM MST     1.01 meters High Tide
Mon -- 02:34 PM MST     0.27 meters Low Tide
Mon -- 05:39 PM MST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:53 PM MST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:34 PM MST     1.31 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Yavaros, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet

Topolobampo
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:54 AM MST     -0.23 meters Low Tide
Mon -- 04:24 AM MST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:35 AM MST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:11 AM MST     0.95 meters High Tide
Mon -- 02:36 PM MST     0.13 meters Low Tide
Mon -- 05:36 PM MST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:50 PM MST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:38 PM MST     1.25 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Topolobampo, Sinaloa, Mexico, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Tucson, AZ,