Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fort Myers Shores, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 305 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

High pressure centered across the Southeast US will drift southeastward into the southwest Atlantic tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds setting up favorable radiational cooling conditions across the region. Winds will be lightest across the Nature Coast where best cooling conditions are expected to occur as lows are forecast to dip down into the mid/upper 30s, which could support areas of frost in northern portions of the forecast area so a Frost Advisory has been issued for inland portions of Levy County through 13Z/8AM Sunday morning. Elsewhere, lows will dip down into the 40s and 50s so still below normal for this time of the year. However, tonight will be the last chilly night until at least the middle of next week as a warming trend is expected in the coming days with southerly flow increasing across the region as high pressure shifts further out into the Atlantic. This should favor high temperatures returning to climatological normal values by tomorrow with highs in the mid/upper 70s and reaching above normal into early next week. In addition, dry weather will continue through the remainder of the weekend and into the new week with Atlantic high pressure and shortwave ridging aloft in control.

By late Tuesday, a strong cold front will into the FL panhandle region and quickly shift southeastward across the Florida peninsula throughout the day on Wednesday as a deep upper trough moves across the Mississippi Valley. Scattered showers and and possibly a few storms are expected to accompany the frontal passage as PWATs surge as high as 1-7-1.9 inches, though instability looks to be on the marginal side so convective activity generally looks to be limited at this time. Overall QPF amounts also are not looking to be too impressive with latest GEFS probabilities of QPF greater than 0.5 inches only showing about 10%-20% across portions of the Nature Coast with lower probabilities further southward, which appears reasonable given the progressive nature of the frontal boundary. Regardless, the rain will quickly come to an end by Wednesday night into Thursday as the upper trough shifts off to the east and surface high pressure builds across the northern Gulf Coast. This will send temperatures dropping significantly by Thursday with highs struggling to reach the 60s for northern portions of the forecast area, though it appears temperatures will moderate rather quickly late week and into next weekend as cold air advection diminishes and wind flow becomes easterly towards the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

VFR expected through the period with winds mainly E-NE below 10 knots, turning slightly onshore during the afternoon for northern coastal terminals.

MARINE
Issued at 305 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

High pressure is in control across the area with winds out of the east on Sunday before shifting southerly into early next week.
Marine conditions are then expected to become more hazardous by the middle of the week as a strong cold front moves southeastward across the Gulf waters on Wednesday. Scattered showers and a few storms could accompany the frontal passage before tapering off by Wednesday night as drier air builds into the area. Breezy northwesterly winds are expected to develop in the wake of the frontal boundary with small craft advisory headlines possibly needed by mid week with increasing winds and seas.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 305 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

High pressure in the region will provide rain-free conditions through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. Minimum RH values drop into the low 40s on Sunday before deeper moisture moves into the area by next week, which will lead to increasing humidity values by next week. In addition, wind speeds will remain below critical levels so red flag conditions are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 49 74 58 78 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 52 79 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 49 77 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 50 77 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 38 75 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 54 73 61 75 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...None.