DISCUSSION
Mid/upper-level high pressure remains over the region this afternoon with a trough swinging through the northeast U.S. and surface high pressure extending across the peninsula. Overall light wind flow today will lead to additional convection developing along the sea breeze boundary collision over the interior and then slowly drifting back westward through the rest of the evening.

For Saturday and Sunday, high pressure aloft shifts west as troughing moves over the Atlantic. A surface boundary will move into northern Florida, pushing the Atlantic ridge axis farther south. A bit of a complicated setup, but add in higher moisture and we should see increased storm activity both days.

Global models continue to indicate troughing continuing over the state into early next week with a relatively weak surface pattern.
Higher moisture is also forecast to remain and all of this supports a forecast of continued higher rain chances, with storms dominated by sea breeze and outflow boundaries due to the lack of steering flow. The Atlantic ridge axis then builds back in for Wednesday through the end of the week, with a southeast flow pattern returning.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 748 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Main impact area for showers/thunderstorms this evening will be over southwest Florida vcnty PGD/FMY/RSW, and may briefly impact terminals with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs. VFR conditions are expected at all terminals after midnight. Scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday during the late morning/early afternoon hours with areas of MVFR CIGs and LCL IFR VSBYs which may impact all terminals across west central and southwest Florida for an hour or two.



MARINE
Fairly light southeast to south winds will continue through the weekend with a turn onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. No headlines are expected, though scattered thunderstorms are possible each day.

FIRE WEATHER
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 91 78 92 / 40 70 40 70 FMY 77 94 78 94 / 50 60 20 60 GIF 76 95 76 94 / 50 70 30 70 SRQ 77 93 77 93 / 40 70 40 70 BKV 74 94 74 93 / 40 70 40 70 SPG 81 92 81 93 / 40 70 50 70

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.