Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:52PM Saturday January 18, 2020 7:20 PM EST (00:20 UTC) Moonrise 1:16AMMoonset 12:55PM Illumination 37% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 532 Pm Est Sat Jan 18 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday evening...
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 11 feet. Period 10 seconds. North northeast swell 3 to 6 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Sunday..South winds around 10 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. Period 10 seconds. North northeast swell 4 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Sunday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Period 11 seconds. North northeast swell 4 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots along the coast to north 10 to 20 knots in the gulf stream. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet along the coast and 4 to 6 feet with occasional to 8 feet in the gulf stream. Period 5 seconds. North northeast swell 3 feet in the morning. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers.
Monday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet along the coast and 4 to 6 feet with occasional to 8 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet along the coast and 6 to 8 feet with occasional to 10 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers
Tuesday night...north winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet along the coast and 6 to 8 feet with occasional to 10 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..North northeast winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet along the coast and 7 to 9 feet with occasional to 11 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers.
Wednesday night and Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet along the coast and 6 to 8 feet with occasional to 11 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Chance of showers.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 532 Pm Est Sat Jan 18 2020
Synopsis..A ridge of high pressure north of the region will move east as a cold front moves across the south florida waters on Monday. Marine conditions will improve across the atlantic waters Sunday through Monday but will deteriorate once again towards the middle of the week as another strong high pressure ridge builds to the north.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas will remain above 7 feet through the early morning hours on Sunday from the northern waters of broward county northward. Across the palm beach waters, seas will remain above 7 ft through the day on Sunday. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jan 16, 2020 at 1200 utc... 5 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 7 nautical miles east of port everglades. 3 nautical miles east of lake worth. 5 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palm Beach Gardens, FL
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location: 26.82, -80.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 182336 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 636 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

Aviation. VFR conditions should prevail through the next 24 to 30 hours across all TAFs sites. Periods of brief MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out but confidence is low and will handle with amendments if needed. Rain chances will remain low and are not forecast to increase until after 00Z Monday onward but not large enough to mention in FLL/MIA tafs at this time. Winds continue to trend down overnight. Becoming se 5-10 kts at most overnight turning more southerly by late tomorrow.

Prev Discussion. /issued 429 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020/

Short Term .

Short Term (Tonight through Sunday) . high pressure centered over the west Atlantic will keep tight pressure gradients across the state, with gusty winds persisting until early this evening. Models suggest a rather quick decoupling of the BL shortly after sunset, with winds quickly subsiding to 6-10mph this evening. Moisture remains fairly limited with PWATs of 0.8 inches, while mid-level ridging is still evident on the 12Z MFL sounding and model analyses. Thus, no significant rain is expected for tonight and into Sunday morning.

Model solutions show a shift in the synoptic pattern by Sunday late morning as the aforementioned high pressure migrates eastward and away from the Florida peninsula into the Atlantic, while a low pressure system deepens over the Great Lakes area. An associated cold front boundary will reach northern Florida and the east gulf waters by Sunday morning, forcing a shift in winds to the SSE, then SW by Sunday afternoon. This synoptic scenario will translate into increasing moisture and a warming trend for Sunday afternoon. But rain chances will be kept minimal attm since model solutions agree in keeping the frontal boundary far enough to the north of SoFlo, while the mid level ridge seems to hold in place a little longer.

By Sunday night the scenario changes significantly, with the convection ahead of the boundary bringing increasing rain chances. The lack of significant instability will limit thunderstorm support, but a stray storm or two are certainly possible Sunday night into Monday early morning.

Temperatures tonight should remain comfortable with values a few degrees above normals, ranging from mid to upper 60s along the Atlantic to upper 50s over inland portions of Southwest Florida.

Long Term .

Sunday Night and Monday .

An amplified flow pattern will prevail aloft with broad troughing in place east of the Rockies. A robust shortwave will eject eastward through the mean flow from the lower Great Lakes into New England, with the associated surface low deepening offshore while advancing towards the Canadian Maritimes. The associated surface cold front should be approaching South Florida by Sunday evening, with the front gradually working south through our area by Monday morning. While the greatest synoptic-scale support for ascent will remain well north of our area, the presence of the low-level frontal zone juxtaposed with increasing jet-level divergence and differential cyclonic vorticity advection aloft warrants continuing the slight chance for thunderstorms on Monday. Believe this threat is rather limited over land areas, owing to the dearth of instability, but there's a somewhat greater (albeit limited) probability of seeing a few lightning strikes over the Atlantic waters. Moisture along the frontal zone appears rather limited, so QPF should generally be on the light side. Temperatures on Monday are likely to hold steady into the afternoon hours in the 60s (north) to 70s (south) before readings begin tumbling towards evening.

Monday Night through Wednesday .

Continental high pressure will build equatorward from the northern High Plains into the central Gulf of Mexico with shortwave ridging in place. Downstream, cyclonic flow will prevail across much of the eastern CONUS with a shortwave trough dropping southeastward through the mid Missouri valley. This pattern will support northerly winds transporting a cool continental airmass into South Florida. Below normal temperatures are expected, with highs unlikely to climb above 70 for most areas on Tuesday and Wednesday. The greatest concern during this period is low temperatures, which are likely to be a good 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal averages. The coldest period will be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when the greatest influence from the surface ridge will occur. Analysis of statistical and deterministic forecast model output, in conjunction with our local Model Certainty tool suggest that lowering temperatures below a consensus of the forecast model guidance is a prudent move during this time, and adjusted low temperatures downward in response. Didn't go as low as our coolest outlier, the bias corrected ECMWF, as it appears the low-level wind gradient will remain strong enough to keep things from really tanking, but we'll need to monitor this going forward. Regardless, Tuesday night is looking rather cool with lows ranging from the upper 30s/lower 40s over inland Collier, Glades, and Hendry Counties, to the lower/mid 40s over coastal Collier, Mainland Monroe, and western/central Palm Beach/Broward/Miami-Dade Counties, to around 50 for the east coast metro areas and beaches. As of now it appears that winds and temperatures should remain high enough to prevent frost formation over the coolest areas, but we'll keep an eye on this going forward. Those with agricultural interests (especially from Lake Okeechobee into interior southwest Florida) should keep up with the forecast.

Thursday through Saturday .

The aforementioned shortwave trough will advance from the coastal Carolinas into the western Atlantic ocean, with surface low pressure developing north of the Bahamas. This will enhance the pressure gradient across South Florida resulting in breezy conditions as the winds turn easterly. Shower chances will continue through the period for the Atlantic waters and east coast, possibly spreading inland late in the period as surface troughing approaches from the west. Temperatures should be moderating closer to seasonal values during this period.

Marine .

Hazardous conditions remain in place with gusty easterly winds continuing over the Atlantic waters behind the passage of a backdoor cold front. Conditions are expected to briefly improve ahead of the next front on Monday, then conditions again deteriorate behind that front heading into mid-week. Small Craft Advisories may be necessary, particularly for the Atlantic waters, through the end of the week.

Beach Forecast .

Gusty easterly flow and swell in the Atlantic will keep a high risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches through at least Sunday. Rip Current potential remains highest along the Palm Beaches through a good portion of the week, though the rest of the Atlantic beaches remain elevated as well.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 65 80 62 71 / 0 10 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 68 80 66 74 / 0 10 30 30 Miami 67 80 65 74 / 0 10 30 20 Naples 63 79 59 71 / 0 10 30 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168.

High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for FLZ168.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ172-173.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ651-671.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Sunday for AMZ650-670.

GM . None.

Aviation . 52/PS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 61 mi80 min ESE 13 G 15 71°F 1025 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Palm Beach - Palm Beach International Airport, FL10 mi87 minESE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F57°F55%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPBI

Wind History from PBI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE6E5E4NE3CalmCalmN3W4NW4NW3NW5N3NE11NE13NE14
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2 days agoE6SE4E4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW3CalmE6NE7NE4NE6E7NE6NE6NE6

Tide / Current Tables for PGA Boulevard Bridge, ICWW, Loxahatchee River, Florida
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PGA Boulevard Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:46 AM EST     2.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:08 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:54 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:00 PM EST     2.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:38 PM EST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.42.12.52.62.41.91.40.80.40.20.30.71.31.92.42.52.421.40.70.1-0.2-0.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Lake Worth Creek, Day Beacon 19, ICWW, Loxahatchee River, Florida
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Lake Worth Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:17 AM EST     2.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:45 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:54 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:31 PM EST     2.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:50 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:15 PM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.41.82.121.81.40.90.50.20.20.40.81.31.7221.81.30.80.3-0.1-0.2-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Miami, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.