Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 2:11 PM   Moonset 2:16 AM

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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 829 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Rest of tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest late. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 5 seconds and south 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 6 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Saturday - South winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Saturday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday night - West winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Monday - West winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Monday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Tuesday - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 829 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis - West winds tonight shift back to the southwest on Friday as a frontal boundary lifts northward across the area. Another storm system will bring increasing rain chances for the waters over the weekend. No headlines are expected, though winds and seas will be higher in and near showers and Thunderstorms.

FXUS62 KTBW 170028 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 828 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 825 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Current forecast reasoning remains unchanged, however did add patchy overnight fog potential to SWFL counties generally away from the coast with deeper moisture evident in latest obs and meso analysis. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s along with PWATs 1.5-2 inches across those areas, coupled with additional residual moisture from today's rainfall which totaled 1-2 inches in part of Lee County in particular, will present favorable conditions for at least some areas of patchy fog and low clouds developing overnight as winds drop to only a few mph. Patchy fog and low clouds also appear possible across Nature Coast locations where calm winds coupled with increasing moisture/PWATs as the boundary lifts back north across the peninsula will also create conducive conditions for development. Any impacts to visibility will improve during the morning as heating sets in, following another humid night for areas south of I-4 with lows in the 70s, with areas northward likely a few degrees cooler in the mid-upper 60s.

DISCUSSION
Flow aloft over the region this afternoon has become nearly zonal, with the surface frontal boundary sitting across the Florida peninsula. South of this boundary and mainly over Lee county, some showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to be possible while relatively drier air has taken hold to the north. This boundary will start to lift back northward tonight as another storm system begins to develop to our west. Low-level flow turns back to southwest through Friday, with increasing moisture once again. The main question for tomorrow's forecast will be rain chances. It would make sense that moisture pooling along the boundary would lead to some rain chances and a few other higher- res models are indicating a weakening MCS moving across the northern Gulf coast region, all of which would likely lead to some shower activity and maybe a few storms. Whatever does develop would then generally push inland with the southwest winds in place.

For Saturday, southwest flow continues across the local area, with warm and humid conditions persisting. Some showers and storms can be expected in the afternoon, but these will again favor interior locations. The frontal boundary associated with the next storm system will move into north Florida Saturday night into Sunday, with increasing shower and storm chances for the northern half of the forecast area. The boundary very slowly shifts southward through Sunday and Sunday night with rain chances moving with it.

A surface low tries to develop off the northeast Florida coast early next week, which will help keep rain chances in the forecast through Monday. Some drier air then moves in for Tuesday and more so for Wednesday, with rain chances confined more to southwest Florida.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR expected for terminals through the cycle although a period of MVFR/LCL IFR could develop overnight mainly between 09-14Z for PGD/FMY/RSW as deeper moisture coupled with light winds may lead to development of some lower cigs or patchy fog. Lower confidence for now still so hinted at potential for that time frame this cycle. Not expecting similar overnight potential for northern terminals, and VFR expected to prevail during the day Friday area wide. Winds mainly light and variable overnight, increasing to SW 7-12 knots late morning through afternoon before diminishing during the evening.

MARINE
West to northwest winds today shift back to the southwest Friday as a frontal boundary lifts northward across the area. Another storm system will bring increasing rain chances for the waters over the weekend. No headlines are expected, though winds and seas will be higher in showers and thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER
No Red Flag concerns for the next several days as relative humidity values will remain above normal. A frontal boundary over the region will move north through Friday and then another storm system will bring increasing rain chances for the area through this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 76 91 79 92 / 10 10 0 20 FMY 77 93 78 95 / 10 10 0 20 GIF 71 95 75 96 / 0 20 0 30 SRQ 76 91 77 93 / 10 10 0 20 BKV 66 93 71 94 / 0 20 0 30 SPG 79 89 81 90 / 10 10 0 20

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Placida
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Thu -- 02:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:11 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:09 AM EDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:55 PM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Placida, Gasparilla Sound, Florida, Tide feet

Boca Grande Pass
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Thu -- 01:01 AM EDT     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:05 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:08 AM EDT     1.76 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:36 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:14 PM EDT     -0.49 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:40 PM EDT     0.72 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Boca Grande Pass, Charlotte Harbor, Florida Current, knots

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