Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pahokee, FL

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Coastal showers along the Atlantic waters will continue to be a nuisance through the early morning hours as coastal convergence continues to set up along the more unstable Gulf Stream. Mid level water vapor imagery and the recent MFL upper air sounding indicate that there is quite a bit of dry air above 700 mb, so most convection will remain very weak and low topped. The better moisture content looks to be further east along a weak inverted surface trough in the Bahamas. But low level lapse rates of 7 C/Km and limited instability of around 1000 J/kg should continue to support isolated to scattered showers moving onshore. PoPs along the Atlantic waters and adjacent coastal zones will be between 50% and 60% through the afternoon. More inland, chances for showers will be isolated, at around 30% for the eastern metro areas and less than 20% for interior portions of South Florida.
With showers pinned along the coast, a few areas may see up to an inch of rain. However, the drier air and subsidence aloft should keep most activity pretty weak. With precipitable water values near climatology, chances of seeing greater than an inch are only about 30% for South Florida. Therefore, the risk of urban flooding will be very low (at least related to precipitation, keep reading for more info on the King Tides).

Aloft, most of the eastern CONUS finds itself in deep longwave troughing, with a couple of embedded shortwave vorticity maxima moving southeast into the Atlantic. Meanwhile at the surface, strong high pressure centered over New England will continue to tighten the pressure gradient along the eastern seaboard. This will result in strengthening winds through the weekend from the northeast.
Winds will generally be 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph.
While these winds won't be quite impactful yet, they will serve to enhance onshore flow along the Atlantic coast, which when paired with increased swell and wave activity may help increase the risk of urban tidal flooding along metro Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach during the peak King Tides.

On Saturday, the base of the mid-level trough swings across the peninsula, bringing along with it a swath of vorticity through the region. However, the better dynamics for thunderstorms will remain offshore over the Atlantic where there is better divergence aloft.
Another player on Saturday will be the evolution of a shortwave trough digging south from the Carolinas and into the Florida coast.
Some ensembles are starting to come into agreement in showing a cut off low developing off of the Space Coast on Saturday. There is a lot of uncertainty at this moment regarding the timing of this feature and how far south it may travel into our region. For now, PoPs for Saturday afternoon remain low across most of South Florida (less than 20%) outside of the immediate Atlantic coast where coastal convergence storms keep chances higher. HRRR ensembles LPMMs keep all the heaviest precipitation offshore and to the north through Saturday evening, with solutions only showing about 0.5 to 1 inch of rain at most.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 318 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

There is increasing confidence in greater chances of precipitation on Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Increased moisture will surge into the region as the mid level Atlantic trough or cut off low continues to dig south into the western Atlantic. Some solutions display this system stalling as far south as Cuba, with a stationary frontal boundary at the surface draped across South Florida.
However, precipitable water values don't seem all too impressive, with values climbing up to around 1.6 to 1.7 inches, which is between the mean and 75th percentile for this time of year. So while chances of precipitation will be high, between 85% and 95% for the Atlantic waters and coastal Atlantic areas, QPF continues to trend down among guidance. Ensemble QPF clusters vary both spatially and temporally due to the uncertainty regarding the upper low feature. Some solutions keep the highest QPF offshore, while others bring it onshore but north of South Florida. One scenario brings a swath of heavier precipitation along the eastern metro areas, between 2 to 3 inches through Monday. Model soundings indicate that conditions will be favorable for coastal convergence storms to be pinned along the coast, with brisk northeasterly flow at the surface nearly opposite to the strong westerly to southwesterly flow in the 700 mb and 500 mb heights.
So, if several storms were to be pinned along the coast for several hours, localized urban flooding for low lying and poor drainage areas may be possible. However, chances of widespread amounts of greater than 2 inches are only at around 45%, with highest rain amounts likely staying over the waters.

Strong northeast winds will persist through Monday and some locations near the coast will be flirting with Wind Advisory conditions. Broken tree branches and loose objects may be flung about in winds between 25 to 35 mph. One thing to keep in mind for this weekend is the combination of the King Tide with heavy rain and increased onshore flow. All these factors together may raise tide and water levels into the moderate flood category for coastal urban areas along Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach. Roadways and low lying areas may be flooded for several hours, especially if the high tide coincides with heavy rainfall. Remember, turn around, don't drown. Never drive, walk, or wade, over flooded areas.

Surface high pressure over the northeast will keep the tight pressure gradient along the eastern seaboard through the middle of the week. This will allow for breezy winds and coastal showers to continue through at least Wednesday. Chances of precipitation drop to around 40% for eastern parts of South Florida through the end of the week as mid-level ridging begins to build over the Gulf and slide over Florida.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Mainly VFR conditions through much of the forecast period across all South Florida terminals except for brief spurts of MVFR within any occurring SHRA. NNW winds this morning across east coast terminals will become breezy NNE winds by 13-14Z with gusts of around 20 kts this afternoon. Keeping VCSH for all east coast terminals this morning and introducing VCTS at 16Z, though overall confidence for thunder is low. Breezy NE winds at KAPF with possibility for SHRA late this afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 318 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue through the beginning of next week, with conditions progressively worsening over the weekend.
Northeasterly winds will increase into the 20 to 25 kt range for both the Atlantic and Gulf waters on Friday afternoon and Saturday.
Widespread Small Craft Advisory conditions will be common across all waters through Sunday, but a swath of stronger winds on Sunday evening may lead to a few hours of Gale force gusts along the Atlantic. Probabilities of exceeding 30 kt winds climbs to around 45% on Sunday afternoon. Seas are currently forecast to peak around 6-9 feet in the Gulf and 10-14 feet across the Atlantic waters Sunday night into Monday. High seas and breezy conditions will persist through at least the middle of the week, before conditions finally start to relax on Wednesday.

BEACHES
Issued at 318 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

A high risk of rip currents will persist for all Atlantic beaches through at least the middle of next week. Surf heights up to 6 feet may be possible though Saturday for the Palm Beaches. On Sunday, dangerous surf heights of 10 to 12 feet may be possible for the northern Palm Beach area. Strong onshore wind flow and high seas may combine with King Tides to increase the threat of coastal flooding along the Atlantic through the weekend. Dangerous surf conditions will persist through the middle of the week. See the hydrology section below for a discussion on the upcoming King Tide cycle as well.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 408 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Tied with, if not edging out, the expected impacts from heavy rain is the threat for moderate or higher coastal flooding as we draw closer to the peak of this King Tide cycle. Not only will we reach the peak of the cycle Sunday into Monday, but it is also expected to be the peak King Tide of the season as well. Unfortunately this peak also comes at the time of greatest onshore winds and heavy rain potential. Both of these factors are expected to increase the impacts of the saltwater flooding, either from impeding drainage of heavy rain or adding a surge component to the peak tides. It is within the ensemble envelope that Major category flooding will occur along the immediate coast, and even if the gauges don't quite reach Major level, it's possible the impacts would be the same if freshwater flooding is adding to the saltwater flooding. All sensitive locations down the east coast should be preparing for the highest tidal impacts of the season.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 83 72 84 72 / 40 30 20 30 West Kendall 84 70 85 71 / 30 20 10 10 Opa-Locka 84 71 84 71 / 40 20 30 30 Homestead 84 70 84 71 / 30 30 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 82 72 83 72 / 50 30 40 50 N Ft Lauderdale 83 72 83 73 / 50 20 40 50 Pembroke Pines 84 70 84 70 / 40 20 30 40 West Palm Beach 82 72 83 72 / 40 20 30 60 Boca Raton 82 72 83 72 / 50 20 40 60 Naples 84 66 84 68 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ630.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GMZ656-657-676.