Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jupiter, FL

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1058 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025

Current synoptic pattern features a pronounced region of shared energy between polar front/subtropical jet streams over Mid-Atlantic and SE United States, with diffuse frontal boundary straddling south- central Florida near the surface, and broad/expansive high pressure ridging on the poleward side of this feature, emanating from central CONUS. Ahead of the front, lower clouds and a few rain showers can be expected through the remainder of the morning into the afternoon, with gradual clearing expected through the day. Winds continue to shift out of the NNW, allowing for modest cold-air advection - although not as pronounced with this particular front given the weaker wind magnitudes. Not much else today in terms of sensible weather, should be a cool and dry night, with skies expected to clear overnight.

Overnight low temperatures will be perhaps a degree or two below climatological norms, with the east coast dipping into the lower 60s, and the low/mid 50s for the remainder of the region. Maximum temperatures today and tomorrow generally range from the low to mid 70s across the region.

Tomorrow will be a dry and benign day across the southern peninsula in terms of sensible weather. Winds will gradually veer out of the NE ahead of a weak upper level impulse that ejects southward over the CWFA. This will allow for a gradual warming/moistening, and perhaps increased cloudiness along the immediate east coast.
Otherwise expect a typical mild dry-season day for South Florida.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 302 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025

To begin the long term period Wednesday night, drier air will continue to filter into South Florida in N-NE flow behind the previous cold front on Wednesday as continental high pressure builds back into the region, resulting in mainly dry conditions through Wednesday night.

Heading into the Thursday/Thursday night time frame, the previous uncertainty regarding a low level trough/surface low pressure along the old front over the Gulf of Mexico has decreased some as the GFS (which was the main outlier of the global model suite) has now trended more in the direction of pushing this trough south of the South Florida region, which would decrease the overall rain potential for this time frame. The general pattern still supports at least a slight chance of precipitation as there should be a decent amount of moisture streaming east across the Gulf and Florida peninsula north of the shallow frontal boundary and ahead of the mid-level shortwave, and thus PoPs have been maintained at 10-20% for Thursday/Thursday night. Drier air will once again enter the region on Friday as the surface high to our north starts to shift east into the Atlantic on Friday. For the upcoming weekend, models are currently showing a broad longwave trough covering much of the CONUS and a frontal system progressing southward into the SE U.S. and Florida by Sunday. In response to this, surface/low-level flow should veer to the S-SW, and the front may be close enough to our area on Sunday to start seeing some scattered showers move into SW Florida and around Lake Okeechobee.

As far as temperatures are concerned, cooler air will filter back into the area behind the front Tuesday night, although the N-NE surface/low-level trajectory will limit the strength of the cold air advection especially compared to previous cold episodes. Lows Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to range from upper 40s/near 50 around Lake Okeechobee to the 50s elsewhere (near 60 immediate east coast), with highs both days ranging from the upper 60s to the mid 70s. These temperatures are only about 3-5 degrees below normal, with some decent spread in the guidance related to the amount of cloud cover and potential surface wave development, especially on Thursday. Similar temperatures are expected Friday morning, with temperatures on a warming trend thereafter as winds become southerly ahead of the next system. Friday`s highs are forecast to be in the 70s, with highs near 80 on Saturday and potentially lower 80s on Sunday. Lows will be rising into the 60s during this Fri-Sun time frame.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025

Stubborn BKN MVFR ceilings will hang around the far southern peninsula for the first half of the night, and then mostly VFR conditions the rest of the period. Northerly winds 5-10 kts becoming predominately NE 10-15 kts after 15Z.

MARINE
Issued at 1058 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025

Gentle to moderate southwesterly winds will veer northerly and increase to a moderate to fresh breeze through the morning hours as a cold front pushes through the area. Behind the front, hazardous marine conditions will occur with the increasing northerly winds and a northeasterly swell as seas rise to 4-7 feet in the Atlantic and 2- 4 feet in the Gulf. Conditions will start to improve beyond Wednesday heading into late week, though cautionary conditions may still be present.

BEACHES
Issued at 1058 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025

A moderate risk for rip currents is in place for the Atlantic beaches today. The risk of rip currents will increase across the Atlantic beaches for the middle of the week as a northeasterly swell builds across the Atlantic waters behind a cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 61 75 62 73 / 0 10 0 20 West Kendall 58 76 58 75 / 0 0 0 20 Opa-Locka 59 75 60 74 / 0 10 0 20 Homestead 61 75 61 75 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Lauderdale 60 73 61 72 / 0 10 0 20 N Ft Lauderdale 60 73 61 72 / 0 10 0 20 Pembroke Pines 61 76 60 76 / 0 10 0 20 West Palm Beach 58 73 59 71 / 0 10 0 20 Boca Raton 59 74 60 73 / 0 10 0 20 Naples 53 73 55 71 / 0 0 10 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670- 671.

GM...None.