Thursday, February27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Canal Point, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:23PM Thursday February 27, 2020 1:09 PM EST (18:09 UTC) Moonrise 9:15AMMoonset 9:55PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ610 Lake Okeechobee- 1110 Am Est Thu Feb 27 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Rest of today..North northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Tonight..North northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Lake waters a moderate chop.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Lake waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Sunday and Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Monday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1110 Am Est Thu Feb 27 2020
Synopsis..A high pressure ridge will be building across the coastal waters through the weekend with hazardous marine conditions possible today. The high pressure system will remain in control through the weekend with improving overall marine conditions outside brief periods of upticks in winds and seas during the weekend.
Gulf stream hazards..Winds of 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts along with seas of 5 to 7 feet and occasionally higher are expected today with conditions gradually improving thereafter. Brief periods of upticks in winds and seas are possible through the weekend but should remain below advisory levels. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of feb 27, 2020 at 1200 utc... 7 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 14 nautical miles east of port everglades. 10 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 15 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Canal Point, FL
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location: 26.91, -80.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 271756 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1256 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

Aviation.

Prevailing VFR and dry conditions expected across S. FL and all terminals. Cold/dry air continues to advect into the region from the north leading to clearing skies. Breezy northwesterly winds will decrease in magnitude throughout the period as the pressure gradient relaxes across S. FL.

Prev Discussion. /issued 1212 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020/

Update .

A cold/dry air mass continues to advect across South Florida from the north this morning behind a cold front. Cloud coverage continues to decrease from north to south across South Florida as lower theta-e air materializes across the area. The lingering shallow rain activity from this morning has diminished across South Florida as the boundary layer continues to dry out with dew points decreasing into the low 40s across most of the area today. Breezy northwesterly winds will continue today with gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph along the coastal interfaces of South Florida this afternoon. The forecast remains in good shape and minimal changes are expected at this time.

Prev Discussion . /issued 354 AM EST Thu Feb 27 2020/

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS REGION OVER COMING DAYS . HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA . INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND .

Short Term (Today through Friday Night) . A strong cold front has pushed through the forecast area this morning. The front brought a band of moderate to in some cases heavy showers through the region, which has shifted mostly offshore at the time of this discussion. A break in the rainfall is observed on radar for much of the land areas this morning. Upstream, denser cloud cover and stratiform precipitation is occurring generally across central Florida. This band of isentropic induced activity will continue to move southward with the density front, however, the dense cold/dry airmass will eventually dry up much of this activity as it near our northern tier. That said, POPs for the Lake Okeechobee region will remain nonzero through the morning hours to account for the possibility of some activity sneaking southward.

By sunrise and thereafter, all eyes will be shifting from POPs to temps. With the CAA setting up, warming from insolation will be limited today. That said, below average temperatures are anticipated across the board with high temps in the mid 60s across the upper interior and closer to 70 across the coastline. As surface high pressure begins to solidly spread into the region from the west, winds will begin to lighten up a good bit allowing for sufficient radiational cooling to take place tonight/Friday AM. This will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 30s across the interior with coastal areas dropping to the mid/upper 40s elsewhere including metro areas and around 50 immediate east coast.

Friday, high pressure will remain in control with continued below average temperatures. Again, despite plenty of insolation, strong cold/dry air advection will continue to filter into the region through the remainder of the short term period with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Friday night low temperatures will be around 40 in the NW interior to upper 40s elsewhere including metro areas and lower 50s immediate east coast.

Long Term (Saturday through Wednesday) . The long term begins with high pressure in control, with only a slight moderation from the short term to long term periods. A secondary Canadian H5 impulse will swing southward across the southeast US leading to a secondary push of cold/dry air into the region this weekend. Globals have backed off a bit on the QPF signal with this feature and with little to no time to recover, think rain chances are very close to zero. High temps will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s saturday and lower to mid 70s by sunday as airmass begins to recover. Low temps Saturday night will still be close to a repeat from friday night.

Dry conditions will continue through early next week. High pressure will finally translate eastward from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the western north Atlantic through the period. This will finally allow for the cool pattern to end going into early next week as a surface return flow sets up across the region bringing warmer and more moist air into the forecast area. With this a chance of rain will return my mid to late week with temperatures warming to near normal early part of the week and well above normal by mid to late week ahead of the next front.

Marine . Strong NNW flow is occurring behind a strong cold front that pushed through the region early this morning. This has pushed winds to SCA thresholds and wave heights aren't far from meeting criteria. SCA conditions can be expected through the day today with some gradual breakdown of pressure gradient later this afternoon and overnight. This will lead to more benign marine conditions overnight, at least until later this weekend when a reinforcing shot a cold air drives southward increasing winds and seas to near SCA thresholds once again. Eventually, early next week high pressure will build into the region reducing winds and seas through midweek before another uptick occurs as southerly flow increases ahead of aforementioned front. SCA will remain in effect through the day today for much of the waters (except Lake Okeechobee) and through the evening hours for the Palm Beach waters.

Beach Forecast . A high risk of rip currents can be anticipated today for the beaches of Palm Beach and Collier Counties as onshore flow impacts the collier coast today along with a bit of westerly swell and as high seas build offshore Palm beach with a NE swell as well. Elsewhere, moderate risk of rip currents will reside for the beaches of Miami Dade and Broward Counties. A gradual improvement is anticipated by Friday, however, there still may be an elevated risk of rip currents going into the upcoming weekend. Beyond the weekend, the rip current risk will decrease for Collier and increase early next week for the entire east coast as flow turns more out of the east.

Fire Weather . A very dry airmass will push southward behind the cold front resulting in RH values among the driest we have seen in a while across the region Friday and through the weekend. RH values are forecast to drop across the interior to near or below critical values through the period but RFW criteria, when factoring winds and ERC values, is not quite met but there is no doubt we will be dealing with a period of increased fire weather concerns Friday and through the weekend. Something we will be monitoring through the weekend. Dispersion conditions will be good today and Friday increasing to very good by the weekend as mixing heights begin to recover and transport winds remain at least moderate.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 47 66 47 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 50 68 50 69 / 0 0 0 0 Miami 48 68 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 46 66 49 69 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ069-168.

AM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ630-651- 671.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ650-670.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ610.

GM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for GMZ656-657- 676.

Aviation . 18/Weinman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 41 mi51 min NW 14 G 18 61°F 76°F1019.9 hPa
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 72 mi75 min N 15 G 22 60°F 1022.9 hPa

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Okeechobee County Airport, FL26 mi14 minNNW 12 G 1810.00 miFair63°F37°F39%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOBE

Wind History from OBE (wind in knots)
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S8SW9SW6SW6SW5SW4S3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S5SW6NW6
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Tide / Current Tables for South Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida
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South Fork
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:09 AM EST     0.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:56 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST     0.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:20 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:15 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:53 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.90.90.80.60.40.20-00.10.30.50.80.90.90.80.60.40.20-0.1-00.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Boy Scout Dock, Loxahatchee River, Florida
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Boy Scout Dock
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:21 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:51 AM EST     1.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:20 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:40 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:53 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.81.410.50.200.10.40.91.51.81.91.81.510.60.2-0.1-0.10.20.61.21.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.