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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 401 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am est Monday through late Monday night...
Tonight..S sw winds 15 to 20 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Showers likely in the evening. A chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..Winds N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Along the coast, seas 2 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft in the afternoon. In the gulf stream, seas 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft building to 5 to 7 ft, occasionally to 9 ft in the afternoon. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Mon night..N ne winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, occasionally to 8 ft along the coast and 6 to 8 ft, occasionally to 10 ft in the gulf stream. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas.
Tue..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, occasionally to 9 ft along the coast and 6 to 8 ft, occasionally to 10 ft in the gulf stream. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..Winds ne winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, occasionally to 13 ft. Intracoastal waters very rough in exposed areas. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Wed and Wed night..E ne winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to around 35 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, occasionally to 13 ft. Intracoastal waters very rough in exposed areas. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers with a chance of tstms.
Thu..E ne winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 35 kt along the coast to E ne 25 to 30 kt with gusts to around 40 kt in the gulf stream. Seas 7 to 10 ft, occasionally to 13 ft building to 9 to 12 ft, occasionally to 15 ft in the afternoon. Intracoastal waters very rough in exposed areas. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Thu night..E ne winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to around 40 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft, occasionally to 15 ft. Intracoastal waters very rough in exposed areas. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Fri..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 35 kt along the coast to E 25 to 30 kt with gusts to around 40 kt in the gulf stream. Seas 9 to 12 ft, occasionally to 15 ft. N ne swell 5 ft. Intracoastal waters very rough in exposed areas. A chance of showers.
Fri night..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 35 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, occasionally to 13 ft. NE swell 5 ft. Intracoastal waters rough in exposed areas. A chance of showers.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 400 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..
breezy southerly to southwesterly winds 15 to 20 kts will prevail today ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas in the atlantic generally 3 to 5 ft today, and 2 ft or less in the gulf. A few showers and storms could develop over the local waters this evening with the passage of the front.
winds will veer from the north northeast late tonight into Monday morning as the front clear our area, gradually increasing up to 20 to 25 kts by midweek. Seas will also gradually build up to 6 to 8 across all local waters by mid-week, resulting in hazardous boating conditions.
gulf stream hazards: seas building to 6 to 9 feet by Tuesday. Seas could exceed 10 feet later this week.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 09, 2023 at 12 utc...
18 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 16 nautical miles east of port everglades. 3 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 5 nautical miles northeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMLB 102113 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 413 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

New MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION

...Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible From Late This Afternoon Into the Evening Hours...
...Turning Much Cooler Behind a Cold Front Late Tonight Into Early This Week...

Current-Tonight... Surface analysis shows the cold front is draped across northern Florida with a strong line of convection out ahead of the front. The far southern edge of this strong convection band can be seen on the KMLB WSR-88D radar this afternoon as it steadily moves southward across north/ north-central Florida. Locally, scattered showers are beginning to move in from the west coast and push across the I-4corridor this afternoon. This activity is quickly moving northeast at around 30-35 mph, with additional showers moving northward along our Atlantic waters. Temperatures as of 3pm are in the upper 70s across the far northern part of the CWA and low 80s everywhere else under partly cloudy skies.

This aforementioned cold front is forecast to continue to move southward through the remainder of the day, passing through east central Florida late this evening and into early Monday morning.
Increasing rain and lightning storm chances out ahead of the cold front early this evening and into the early overnight hours, starting from north to south. Some of these storms may be strong to marginally severe, with the greatest potential being this evening along and north of the I-4 corridor. SPC has outlooked portions of east central Florida in a Marginal Risk for severe weather into tonight, mainly along and north of the I-4 corridor. Additional showers and lightning storms are expected to form this afternoon across east central Florida before the main convective band moves through after 6 PM. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are then forecast to pass through the area with the main convective line, mainly between 6pm-12am. The main storm hazards into tonight will be strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph with locally damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph possible, small hail, although hail up to 1" in diameter can not be ruled out, occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes, and heavy rain fall. A brief tornado can not be ruled out this evening, mainly across Lake and northern Volusia counties.

Behind the front, expect breezy and gusty conditions to continue, with winds veering to the north to northwest. Wind speeds will be around 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Skies will continue to be mostly cloudy with low overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s north of Melbourne, and in the mid 50s to low 60s to the south.

Monday... Mid and upper level ridge across Cuba and the GOMEX will flatten out through the time period as an upper level trough centered across Quebec shifts eastward. At the surface, the aforementioned cold front will be across South Florida/ the Florida Straights around sunrise and will continue to shift southward through the day. At the same time, a surface high pressure across MS/AL will shift eastward across the Deep South.
Locally, expect the north to northeast winds to pull down a much cooler and drier airmass into the local area behind the front.
Thus, no mentionable rain chances through the day with below normal temperatures for this time of year. Temperatures in the morning will be in the mid 40s to 50s and will only rise into the 60s across the area during the afternoon, despite the mostly sunny skies.

Monday Night-Tuesday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Temperatures into Monday night will again fall into the mid to upper 40s near to NW of I-4 and in the 50s across much of the rest of east central FL.
Strong high pressure building NE toward the Mid-Atlantic states quickly veers low level winds onshore into Tuesday, becoming breezy along the coast and moderately breeze inland into the afternoon.
This will start a gradual warming trend across the area, with dry conditions continuing. Highs increase to the low to mid 70s on Tuesday, with increasing high clouds through the day.

Wednesday-Saturday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Pressure gradient continues to tighten into mid to late week between strong high pressure north of the region and stalled frontal boundary south of FL. This will lead to winds further increasing, becoming breezy to windy in onshore flow that looks to continue through the rest of the work week. The stronger onshore flow will continue to increase moisture and rain chances through mid to late week, with the GFS still showing much higher coverage of rainfall than the ECMWF as it develops an area of low pressure over the south western Gulf (along the front) and lifts this feature N/NE. The ECMWF diverged a bit with the 12Z run, developing the low in the northwestern Gulf, still later than the GFS, but this actually results in the front lifting towards ECFL, and PoPs/QPF for the area a little higher than the previous forecast. Continue to have PoPs limited to areas southeast of I-4 on Wednesday, increasing up to 30-50% across Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast. Chance PoPs around 30-50% then expand northward across the area through Thursday into Friday. Highs remain in the 70s, with lows in the 60s.

The increasing onshore flow will build seas through late week, leading to hazardous beach and marine conditions, including a higher risk of rip currents and large breaking waves at the beaches. Minor coastal flooding and beach erosion concerns will also increase through mid to late week, especially around the times of high tide.

MARINE
Issued at 409 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Current- Tonight... Deteoriating boating and marine conditions into tonight. A cold front is forecast to push southward across the local Atlantic waters this evening and into the overnight hours. Increased rain and lightning storms chances out ahead of the cold front will spread across the waters from south to north, with scattered to numerous showers and lighting storms expected late this afternoon and into the early overnight hours. Storms will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 40-50mph, heavy rainfall, and cloud to ground lightning strikes. South to southwest winds around 15-20 KT nearshore and 20-25 KT offshore this afternoon will veer north- northwest overnight and increase to around 20-25 KT with gusts to 35 KT possible. Across the Volusia offshore waters, gusts to gale force will also be possible overnight behind the front. Seas build to 3- 5ft nearshore and up to 6-7ft offshore. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore Volusia and Brevard county waters, and will extend to the rest of the waters overnight.

Monday... Poor to hazardous boating and marine conditions continue.
North to northwest winds at 20-25 KT in the morning will decrease to 15-20 KT in the afternoon as winds veer north to northeast into the evening. Seas will build to 5-7ft in the nearshore waters and 7-8ft in the offshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory will continue for all of the waters through much of Monday morning, and then fall back to just the Gulf Stream waters Monday afternoon into Monday night.

Tuesday-Thursday...Boating conditions will deteriorate further through mid to late week, with gale conditions possible later into the week, as a fresh to strong onshore breeze develops between strong high pressure to the north of the area and stalled front south of FL. Have E/NE winds increasing to 20-25 knots from Tuesday through Wednesday time frame, with additional increases up to 25-30 knots on Thursday. This stronger onshore flow combined with a long easterly fetch will lead to significant increases in seas, with wave heights building from up to 6-8 feet Tuesday up to 10-15 feet into Thursday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 409 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Mainly VFR conditions this afternoon outside of convection before a cold front pushes across the area late this evening and into tonight. South to southwest winds this afternoon at 10-15 KT with gusts up to 25 KT possible will veer west to northwest overnight with gusts to 20-25 KT behind the cold front. Out ahead of the cold front, strong to marginally severe storms are expected across the area this evening, with the strongest storms expected along and north of the I-4 corridor (Lee-ISM-MCO-SFB-DAB).
Rain/storms increase late afternoon and into early overnight, with MVFR TEMPOs for TSRA starting around 23Z across the north and extending in time southward. Went ahead and added a Tempo for VRB- FPR starting around 03Z, but confidence is not high this will occur.
Decided not to include SUA in the TEMPO due to uncertainty, but will continue to monitor.


FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 500 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Much drier and cooler air filters into the area behind the cold front into early this week. Min RH values are currently forecast as low as the upper 30s to low 40s across the interior on Monday afternoon, with northerly winds forecast around 10 mph. Low level flow then veers onshore and becomes breezy through mid-week, with moisture and rain chances increasing, keeping Min RH values above critical values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 48 61 49 70 / 70 0 0 0 MCO 51 63 50 73 / 60 0 0 0 MLB 55 67 56 74 / 40 0 0 0 VRB 58 68 57 75 / 50 0 0 0 LEE 47 63 45 70 / 70 0 0 0 SFB 50 63 48 72 / 70 0 0 0 ORL 51 64 50 72 / 70 0 0 0 FPR 58 68 57 75 / 50 10 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ550-552.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 3 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ555-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ570-572.

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Southwest Fork (spillway)
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Sun -- 01:25 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:19 AM EST     2.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:57 PM EST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:34 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:15 PM EST     2.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Southwest Fork (spillway), Loxahatchee River, Florida, Tide feet

Hobe Sound
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:52 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:43 AM EST     2.01 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:24 PM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:33 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:39 PM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hobe Sound, Jupiter Island, Florida, Tide feet

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