Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jupiter Inlet Colony, FL

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:50PM Saturday August 24, 2019 8:08 AM EDT (12:08 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:49PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 258 Am Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.
Sunday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots along the coast to south southwest 10 to 15 knots in the gulf stream. Seas around 2 feet. Period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots along the coast to south southwest 10 to 15 knots in the gulf stream. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Monday night..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots along the coast to west southwest around 10 knots in the gulf stream. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 258 Am Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Synopsis.. A area of low pressure over south florida will keep showers and Thunderstorms in the forecast for the remainder of the weekend. Along with locally rough seas possible, there is a moderate risk of waterspouts across all south florida waters today. The system is forecast to begin to exit the area on Sunday, eventually allowing the wind across all the waters to become more uniform, out of the southwest by Sunday afternoon.
Gulf stream hazards..Showers and Thunderstorms may bring locally hazardous conditions, as well as a moderate risk of waterspouts. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of aug 24, 2019 at 1200 utc... 6 nautical miles east southeast of fowey rocks. 13 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 12 nautical miles east southeast of lake worth. 11 nautical miles east northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jupiter Inlet Colony, FL
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location: 26.95, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 240853
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
453 am edt Sat aug 24 2019

Discussion
Broad low pressure over south florida will drift north, and then
northeast away from florida this weekend...

current... Rap surface and wpc analysis indicate the center of a
broad area of low pressure is south of lake okeechobee over inland
south fl. Most of the convection associated with this system is over
the bahamas, though nocturnal convection did fire up along the palm
beach coast and made its way north into martin and saint lucie
counties. Isolated light showers are moving onshore in brevard and
volusia counties. The latest two from NHC states significant
development of this system is not likely today, and any development
will occur once the system moves offshore and away from central
florida. Still, periods of heavy rainfall with minor flooding will
continue to be the main concern this weekend.

Today... Rounds of showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue
to come onshore of east central fl today as the tropical disturbance
meanders over south fl. Moisture is abundant, the 00z xmr sounding
had 2.10" of precipitable water (pwat), and model soundings suggest
pwats as high as 2.20" will be possible later today. The highest
rain chances (50-60 percent) will be from vero beach to okeechobee
southward. A gradual decrease in rain chances will be seen further
north, with 40-50 percent chance in osceola southern brevard county,
and only a 30 percent chance for areas along and north of i-4.

Interestingly, the higher resolution models all differ slightly in
their position of the surface circulation over the next 12-24 hours,
which is not surprising given the unorganized nature of this system.

This does add uncertainty into the forecast, particularly as it
relates to where when if heavy bands of rain set up or come onshore
today. The most likely area for this to occur will be along the
space and treasure coasts which reside on the ascending side of an
inverted trough that's set up along the east central fl coast.

Localized rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible with
higher amounts of 4-5 inches possible through this weekend -
depending on where if persistent band of heavy rain setup. Temps
today will will vary from low 90s across the northern areas where
there will be more abundant sunshine, to the upper 80s along the
treasure coast where morning rainfall and persistent cloudiness
should keep temps cooler.

Tonight... The surface circulation will continue to move slowly
north northeast across the fl peninsula, and should be somewhere in
the vicinity of the treasure coast by late tonight towards Sunday
morning (according to the latest guidance). The position of the
system will dictate exactly where the heaviest rain occurs. Do to
uncertainty will keep a broad area of showers and isolated storms in
the forecast for the coastal areas, and only a slight chance of
showers for the interior. Overnight lows will reside in the low to
mid 70s.

Sunday-Wednesday... Wherever the center of the tropical surface low
decides to (re)form consolidate over the next 24h, by Sun morning it
will be moving away from florida, tracking NE offshore the SE conus
seaboard, between the atlantic ridge to its SE and a pair of short
wave troughs to its nw-n. Behind the departing low, the atlantic mid
level ridge will rebuild westward into south florida thru mid week.

Weak surface trough axis will trail SW from the the low into ecfl
sun, while the slp pattern transitions to a broad col for mon-tue.

By wed, a weak mid level short wave trough digs across the eastern
conus, lowering heights across the SE CONUS and fl. An attendant
surface cool front will drop toward nofl, with the low level flow
becoming westerly across the peninsula. Sufficient mean moisture
will support scattered to numerous diurnal showers storms for the
next several afternoons, with pops averaging 60 pct (or ~10 pct
either side of it).

Weak steering flow the next several afternoons will portend some
locally heavy (1-3") rainfall totals, typical of late august, each
day. Wednesday looks to have a more pronounced w-wnw steering flow
of about 10-15kt, which would limit rainfall totals but may increase
the wind gust wet microburst potential. Temps look close to climo.

Thursday-Saturday... Residual mid level weakness over florida will
fill in as the broad trough to its north lights out, allowing the
atlantic ridge to rebuild west toward ecfl. Guidance suggests that
a broad low pressure area will form over offshore nofl Thu morning
from the frontal remnants, and then retrograde westward into the
gomex through next weekend. This may result in higher mid week pops
than what we are advertising (given it's in the day 6-7 time frame)
followed by slight drying next weekend. Of course, this assumes the
model guidance consensus out at days 6+ is close to being correct,
and as early september approaches, significant forecast changes
happen more often than not.

Aviation Periods of heavy rainfall will overspread the area today
as a tropical disturbance moves just east of the florida peninsula.

While there is a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, vcts
was removed from the tafs due to low confidence of where if storms
will develop. Heavy showers are more likely along the coast where
tempo groups have been added for ifr ceiling and visibility impacts.

High resolution models show that convection will wane by sunset with
vfr conditions prevailing this evening into tonight.

Marine Today-tonight... Seas and winds are increasing today as a
tropical disturbance moves through the area. Early morning
observations from buoy 9, 13 and 14 show seas are around 3 feet
nearshore, and up to 4 feet offshore. East southeast winds today
will be around 10-15 knots. Bands of heavy rainfall and embedded
lightning storms will move over the waters today, and some of these
storms might produce occasional wind gusts to 35 knots and
waterspouts.

Sunday-Wednesday... Departing tropical low will leave a residual
surface trough laying across the local atlantic sun, which will
weaken through tue. Cyclonic (nw-sw) flow about the trough axis will
slacken, becoming light (mainly) offshore through tue, but giving
way to the onshore ecsb circ near the coast each afternoon. Stronger
westerlies are advertised for wed, which may increase the threat to
boaters of strong offshore-moving storms in the afternoon evening.

2-4ft seas on Sunday will drop back to 2-3ft from Sun night onward,
and will remain at or less than 3ft through the middle of next week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 88 76 90 76 30 20 50 30
mco 91 76 92 76 30 20 50 40
mlb 88 77 90 77 50 20 50 40
vrb 88 74 90 76 60 30 60 40
lee 92 76 93 77 30 20 50 40
sfb 91 76 92 77 30 20 50 30
orl 90 77 92 77 30 20 50 40
fpr 88 75 92 76 60 30 60 50

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term aviation... Rodriguez
long term impact wx... Cristaldi


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 23 mi50 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 79°F 85°F1014.2 hPa
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 42 mi38 min 83°F4 ft
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 59 mi68 min S 8.9 G 13 83°F 1013.4 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Witham Field Airport, FL18 mi81 minS 67.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity77°F73°F89%1013.5 hPa
West Palm Beach - Palm Beach International Airport, FL19 mi75 minSSE 47.00 miLight Rain79°F75°F88%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUA

Wind History from SUA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E12E12E12E908E10E9E10E11E9E8E11E10SE7SE9SE6SE9SE10E6S4SE3S6CalmS6
1 day agoSE8E8E10E8NE86NE9E9E10E12E8E9E5E7E10E9E7--E8E10E9E6E8--
2 days agoE6E6SE8NE6E8E8E8E8E8E10E10SE8SE5SE5E8E4SE4SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE5

Tide / Current Tables for Jupiter Inlet, south jetty, Florida
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Jupiter Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:53 AM EDT     2.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:02 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:52 PM EDT     2.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:39 PM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.12.32.42.31.91.410.60.50.60.91.31.72.22.42.52.421.61.3111.1

Tide / Current Tables for Hobe Sound, Jupiter Island, Florida
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Hobe Sound
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Sat -- 12:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:19 AM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:23 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:18 PM EDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.811.31.51.71.71.51.310.70.50.30.40.60.91.31.61.71.71.61.41.10.90.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.