Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 2:54 PM   Moonset 2:35 AM

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AMZ650 Coastal Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Jupiter Inlet To Deerfield Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 401 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - S sw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Sun - S sw winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: S sw 1 foot at 3 seconds and ne 1 foot at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of tstms. Showers likely in the afternoon. Sun night - S sw winds 5 to 10 kt becoming W sw after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 3 seconds and N nw 2 ft at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and N ne 2 ft at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Mon night - N ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Wave detail: N 2 ft at 6 seconds and S sw 1 foot at 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Tue - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: N 3 ft at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Tue night - E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Showers likely in the evening. A chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight. Wed - E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night. A slight chance of tstms after midnight. Thu - E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Thu night - E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Intracoastal waters a light chop. A slight chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers through the night.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 401 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis -
a gentle to moderate southwesterly to southerly wind flow will prevail across the local waters over the weekend as low pressure tracks across the southeast us. A frontal boundary will push across the local waters late Sunday into early next week, gradually turning the winds westerly and then northerly behind the front. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will be possible over the local waters each day.
gulf stream hazards: none.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 18, 2024 at 12 utc - .
7 nautical miles east of fowey rocks. 9 nautical miles east of port everglades. 7 nautical miles southeast of lake worth. 6 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMLB 182026 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 426 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE

Strong to Severe Storms this Afternoon and Evening

Another Round of Strong to Severe Storms Sunday

Temperatures Remain Above Normal Sunday

DISCUSSION
Issued at 422 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Currently-Tonight... Current radar imagery shows scattered strong to severe lightning storms developing across east central Florida which have produced 40-50mph+ winds. Convection is expected to continue to increase in coverage into the late afternoon and evening hours, especially near the coast as the east coast sea breeze pushes slightly inland and sea breeze interactions occur (PoPs ~60-70%). A Marginal Risk for severe storms remains over east central Florida. Isolated storms will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 50 with a 5% risk of gusts up to 60mph, coin- sized hail with a 5% risk of hail up to 1," occasional to frequent lightning strikes, and periods of heavy rainfall. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out (2% risk). Rain chances dwindle into this evening and early overnight before another round of showers and storms are expected to develop into the morning and early afternoon Sunday. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Sunday... Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lighting storms are forecast to re-develop into Sunday morning well ahead of a cold front. A Slight Risk for severe storms exists Sunday over Brevard, Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, eastern Okeechobee, eastern Osceola, eastern Orange, and southern Volusia counties with a Marginal Risk across the rest of east central Florida. Scattered storms will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 50 with a 5% risk of gusts up to 60mph, coin-sized hail with a 15% risk of hail up to 1," frequent lightning strikes, and periods of heavy rainfall.

The best chance for strong to severe storms is between 8am to 12pm to the north of I-4 with chances increasing to the southeast between 11am to 3pm from I-4 to Melbourne and Lake Kissimmee and from 1pm to 5pm to the south across the Treasure Coast to Okeechobee county.
West to southwest winds 10-15mph with gusts up to 20-25mph are forecast outside of showers and lightning storms. Some of the guidance (HRRR and GFS) indicate that winds may back slightly onshore for a brief time into the afternoon along the Treasure Coast and enhance convection. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s north of a line that stretches from Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne and the upper 80s to low 90s to the south under mostly cloudy skies. Heat index values are forecast to reach the low 100s across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee county.

Monday-Tuesday...Weak front shifts through the area Monday, but some moisture remains in place through early in the week, with PW values still around 1.3-1.5 inches on Monday and Tuesday. A mid to upper level trough axis across the west Atlantic also remains extended across FL, with series of disturbances pushing southward across the area. This should continue to produce isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms, with the inland moving sea breeze boundary each day. Slight onshore component to the low level winds may even allow for a few onshore moving showers into the morning hours. PoPs range from 40-50 percent on Monday and 30-50 percent on Tuesday. Cooler temps aloft, sufficient instability and passing disturbances aloft may continue to allow for isolated strong storms each afternoon.

Highs will be seasonably warm in the 80s across much of the area, and low 90s possible over southern interior sections of east central FL. Overnight lows will range from the mid 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday-Saturday...Trough aloft transitions to a closed low well offshore of the Southeast U.S. and shifts eastward, with mid/upper level ridge building in from the west through mid to late week. This will lead to drier and hotter than normal conditions for the remainder of the work week. Rain chances drop to 20-30 percent south of Orlando on Wednesday and then only around 20 percent, primarily across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast on Thursday/Friday.
Highs climb from the mid 80s to low 90s on Wednesday to as high as the low to mid 90s into late week. Lows will continue to range around the upper 60s to low 70s each night.

Ridge aloft then breaks down into Saturday with another passing mid level trough. Moisture and rain chances rise just slightly, with PoPs around 20 percent to start the holiday weekend. However, it will remain hot with highs in the low to mid 90s.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 422 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

TAFs begin with VCTS/TEMPO TSRA through 23Z-02Z with scattered strong to severe lightning storms expected. SE winds at 10-12kts with gusts to 20-22kts are forecast to weaken and veer offshore overnight. Winds will increase from the SW at 10-12kts with gusts up to around 20kts into Sunday afternoon. VCTS/TSRA groups return after 12Z-16Z Sunday with strong to severe storms ahead of a cold front.

MARINE
Issued at 422 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Currently-Sunday... Mostly favorable boating conditions are forecast outside of strong to severe lighting storms. Southeast winds at around 10-15kts are forecast to veer offshore late this evening and into the overnight hours at around 15kts from the southwest. Seas are forecast to build to 1-3ft with up to 4ft offshore (20-60nm)
Brevard and Volusia county Sunday.

Scattered showers and lightning storms are expected this afternoon and push offshore into the evening hours which will be capable of wind gusts up to 50-60mph, coin sized hail, and occasional to frequent lightning strikes. A secondary threat for a brief tornado or waterspout also exists (2% risk). Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lighting storms are forecast to re- develop into Sunday morning and afternoon well ahead of a cold front which will be capable of wind gusts up to 50- 60mph, coin sized hail, and periods of heavy rainfall.

Monday-Thursday...Weak front shifts south of the waters Monday, with N/NW winds around 5-10 knots, veering to the N/NE Monday night into Tuesday. Winds then continue to veer onshore becoming easterly through mid-week, with speeds remaining around 5-10 knots. Seas increase to 3-5 feet into Monday and gradually fall back to 2-4 feet Wednesday and 2-3 feet Thursday.

Isolated to scattered storms will continue to be possible into early this week, with a better potential for gusty offshore moving storms on Monday afternoon. Rain chances then decrease into mid-week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 71 87 69 83 / 40 70 30 40 MCO 74 86 71 88 / 30 60 30 40 MLB 73 89 70 87 / 30 70 50 40 VRB 73 91 70 88 / 20 80 50 50 LEE 74 86 71 87 / 40 60 20 40 SFB 73 88 70 87 / 40 60 30 40 ORL 74 88 72 88 / 40 60 30 40 FPR 72 91 70 88 / 20 80 50 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ053-058-154-159- 164-254-259-264-547-647-747.

AM...None.

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3 miles above A1A highway bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:09 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:41 AM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:33 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:18 PM EDT     1.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

3 miles above A1A highway bridge, Loxahatchee River, Florida, Tide feet

Hobe Sound bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:45 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:13 AM EDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:09 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:50 PM EDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hobe Sound bridge, Florida, Tide feet

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