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AMZ610 Lake Okeechobee- 401 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Today..S sw winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop.
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt. Lake waters smooth.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop.
Mon night..N nw winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop.
Tue..N nw winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop.
Wed..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Lake waters a light chop.
Wed night..N nw winds 10 to 15 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop.
Thu..N ne winds around 10 kt becoming ne in the evening. Lake waters a light chop.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 401 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis..
mariners can expect winds originating from the south today, gradually transitioning out of the southwest and eventually west/northwest by Monday. Conditions at sea will be relatively calm, characterized by gentle to moderate winds, accompanied by the possibility of a few rain showers this evening into Monday morning.
gulf stream hazards: none.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 02, 2023 at 12 utc...
33 nautical miles northeast of fowey rocks. 12 nautical miles east southeast of port everglades. 10 nautical miles northeast of lake worth. 13 nautical miles southeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMLB 030922 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected National Weather Service Melbourne FL 422 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION

Current...Increasing clouds across the north early this morning from a combination of high clouds spilling over an upper level ridge centered south of FL, and low stratus rapidly spreading NE from the western peninsula in freshening SW flow just above the surface. In addition, some mist/fog has started to form in this area, and traffic cams show this becoming dense in a few spots around Lake Apopka, Green Swamp and the KISM attractions area.
Low clouds will become widespread across the northern half CWA through sunrise, with some increase in fog expected. Magnitude (15kt) of SW flow just off the deck normally favors widespread stratus over dense/widespread fog but will continue to monitor.

Today-tonight...The mid level ridge extending northward from the Greater Antilles into SOFL/Straits shifts east/flattens through tonight as an elongated vortlobe sags south into NOFL. At the surface, after the fog/stratus erodes later this morning, light- moderate S-SW winds on the western flank of an eroding Atlantic ridge veer WSW/freshen ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will sag across NOFL this afternoon, then become oriented parallel to the low level wind flow, which causes it to slow and become more diffuse as it oozes into ECFL overnight.

While moisture increases (GFS PWATs 1.6"-1.7"/ECM 1-2 tenths lower)
the overall pattern across FL isn't overly favorable for precip to develop, given the lack of significant source for lift, outside of some weak upper divergence. Went with diurnal POPs of 20% from Lake Kissimmee-Melbourne to around I-4, and 30 from I-4 northward. H50 temps fall to -8C/-9C across the north/central as surface temps climb into the L-M80s. Resultant instability (SBCAPEs 1000-1500 JKG-1) supports potential for a few lightning strikes during the mid-late afternoon. Mostly cloudy overnight with isolated evening showers possible. Mins in the M-U60s.

Monday-Tuesday...A cold front is forecast to move southward across the peninsula Monday into Monday night, with isolated shower development forecast along and ahead of the front. Have kept PoPs around 20 percent on Monday, and took out mention of thunder except for across the local Atlantic waters. The global models remain in fairly good agreement that the boundary will push south of east central Florida and stall and eventually diminish across south Florida and the Keys, with the Euro showing a faster decay of the boundary than the GFS. An area of surface high pressure is then forecast to shift eastward from the central US and gradually strengthen across the southeastern US on Tuesday behind the front, with northerly winds locally helping the drier and cooler airmass filter in across east central Florida. This will be most noticeable on Tuesday, with lower relative humidities and rain chances less than 10 percent.

Out ahead of the front on Monday, the warm, moist airmass will keep temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. As the front pushes through, cooler air will follow behind, with overnight lows on Monday dropping into the low to mid 50s. Afternoon highs on Tuesday will also fall closer to climatological normal for this time of year, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s across east central Florida. Overnight lows on Tuesday in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Wednesday-Saturday...Dry conditions are forecast across east central Florida through the remainder of the period. A mid-level trough will sweep across the southeastern US on Wednesday, pushing a reinforcing frontal boundary across the peninsula at the surface, with even drier and cooler air forecast to push in behind the front. As a result, clearing skies are forecast across the area Wednesday through Thursday. As the surface high shifts eastward towards the Atlantic, onshore flow will return Thursday into Friday, leading to some increasing moisture across the area and therefore increasing cloud coverage.

Coolest temperatures are forecast on Wednesday as a result of the reinforcing boundary, with afternoon highs in the low 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the low 40s to mid 50s. Temperatures will then gradually warm through the remainder of the week into the weekend, with afternoon highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s on Thursday and in the low 70s to low 80s Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows in the mid 40s to upper 50s on Thursday and in the low 50s to mid 60s Friday and Saturday nights.



MARINE
Issued at 408 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Today-tonight...SW winds 10kt or a little less near shore and 10-15kt well offshore freshen by a few kts offshore the Volusia /Brevard coasts as they veer to SW-W this afternoon, This will preclude any increase in seas, which will remain 2-3ft nearshore and 3-4ft well offshore. Winds remain W-WSW overnight with speeds slackening a bit, allowing seas to fall back to 2-3ft.

Monday-Thursday...A cold front will move across the local Atlantic waters Monday into Monday night, with isolated to scattered showers and a stray thunderstorm or two forecast. Behind the front, conditions dry out as an area of high pressure builds across the southeastern US. West winds on Monday will veer to out of the northwest on Tuesday, generally between 10 to 15 knots. On Wednesday, a reinforcing frontal boundary will push southward across the Florida peninsula and local Atlantic waters, resulting in the northwesterly winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots across the local Atlantic waters. Winds will veer to out of the northeast on Thursday and decrease back to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet on Monday and Tuesday, increasing to 4 to 8 feet on Wednesday due to the winds, and then decreasing slightly to 3 to 7 feet on Thursday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 408 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

IFR-LIFR stratus CIGs OVC002-007 have become widespread along/west of ISM-MCO-SFB-DED. Thus far, VSBY reductions have been limited to LEE, while having become widespread well SW of ISM. There should be some NE spread of low CIGs toward or across DAB-TIX through 12Z, with potential for IFR to LIFR VSBYs to reach ISM-MCO-ORL. Any fog should burn off by 13Z, with IFR CIGs lingering through 14-15Z.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 408 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to continue a very slow decline this week. The river is forecast to remain within Minor Flood Stage through mid week, but could fall into Action Stage later in the week. Near Geneva, Above Lake Harney the river is expected to fall below Action Stage later today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 82 66 80 51 / 30 20 10 0 MCO 84 69 80 55 / 30 20 20 0 MLB 84 67 83 56 / 20 10 20 0 VRB 85 67 83 56 / 10 10 20 0 LEE 82 67 78 53 / 30 20 10 0 SFB 84 67 80 53 / 30 20 10 0 ORL 85 69 80 56 / 30 20 10 0 FPR 85 67 83 56 / 10 10 20 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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Southwest Fork (spillway)
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:03 AM EST     1.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:48 AM EST     0.76 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:01 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:41 PM EST     2.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:33 PM EST     0.97 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Southwest Fork (spillway), Loxahatchee River, Florida, Tide feet

Boy Scout Dock
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:12 AM EST     2.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:00 AM EST     0.81 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:01 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:50 PM EST     2.24 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:45 PM EST     1.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Boy Scout Dock, Loxahatchee River, Florida, Tide feet

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