Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Alva, FL

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
VFR conditions will mostly prevail through this forecast period, but over the next few hours, thunderstorms will be present in the vicinity, and so slight flight restrictions may be in place at some terminals with the potential for worse conditions. Activity should quiet down later tonight and remain so through tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow afternoon, showers or thunderstorms are once again likely along the seabreeze boundary in our area, and we could see parallels to today's activity as conditions remain consistent.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A dominant east coast sea breeze will continue to spread well inland through the remainder of the day with a collision occurring along the western side of the peninsula so another round of scattered convection is expected across the region. While precipitation coverage may be limited somewhat by the influence of ridging aloft, PWATs ranging from 1.7-1.9 inches and MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 could still support some deeper convection with mainly an isolated wind threat, though weak deep layer shear values will ultimately keep activity unorganized but we will still need to monitor for the development of any stronger cores aloft later today. Any precipitation across the region should then fizzle out by late evening over land areas with the loss of diurnal heating and the remainder of any overnight activity should be focused across the coastal waters with scattered low-topped showers and a few storms.

Upper level ridging in the SW Atlantic and over the peninsula will remain in control for the weekend as the surface ridge axis shifts slightly southward into central Florida. This will maintain the southeasterly flow regime with precipitation activity mostly offshore during the overnight and morning hours before increasing in coverage across the western side of the peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours as the sea breezes collide. However, with a lack of forcing for ascent, weak shear, and poor mid level lapse rates, most of the activity should be below severe criteria but can't completely rule out a couple of stronger gusts with soundings showing that there should be a good amount of dry air in the mid levels.

The persistent mid level ridge in the SW Atlantic continues to dominate into next week as low level southeasterly flow continues to bring highest rain chances for land areas in the late afternoon and evening hours. However, it also appears that deeper moisture will be decreasing somewhat as a wave of Saharan dust drifts near or over portions of the area, though the positioning of the ridge will ultimately determine how close our area gets to the higher dust concentrations. Regardless, there should be at least some drier air aloft lingering into next week and with a lack of large scale forcing for ascent still remaining in place, overall precipitation coverage may be limited. Less precipitation coverage may also of course support warmer conditions given the potential for less cloud cover so as geopotential heights gradually rise into mid week, heat indices may approach advisory criteria at times towards the end of the forecast period.

MARINE
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Southeasterly winds will mostly remain in control over the weekend and into next week as Atlantic high pressure remains in control but winds will shift onshore during the afternoon hours as the sea breeze develops. Wind speeds will primarily remain around 5-10 kts with seas around 1-2 ft each day but wind speeds could reach slightly stronger at times. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible daily, mostly in the overnight and morning hours before precipitation activity spreads over lands areas during the afternoon hours.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Abundant moisture across the area will keep minimum RH values well above critical levels with scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours each day as the sea breeze develops. Winds will mainly be out of the southeast at 5-10 mph through the weekend and into next week, though winds will shift onshore each day with the sea breeze with no fire weather concerns are expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 92 78 92 / 60 40 50 70 FMY 75 92 75 93 / 50 50 30 70 GIF 76 93 75 93 / 60 50 20 70 SRQ 76 91 76 91 / 60 40 50 70 BKV 72 93 72 93 / 60 40 30 70 SPG 78 89 78 90 / 50 40 60 70

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.