Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 10:33 AM   Moonset 12:01 AM

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GMZ836 Charlotte Harbor And Pine Island Sound- 307 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 307 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis -
pressure gradient tightens today allowing for increased se winds that will turn onshore as the sea breeze develops. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will move into northern waters beginning tonight with another round likely tomorrow into Wednesday. Increased winds will also support increased wave heights. Unfavorable marine conditions will likely last until the end of the week.

FXUS62 KTBW 131213 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 813 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The work week will start out quite a bit more humid compared to yesterday as deeper moisture returns. As the high pressure moves further over the Atlantic the flow becomes more S/SE and winds increase as the gradient tightens. Rain chances also increase tomorrow as the sea breezes collide along the interior. Some storms developing along these boundaries could become severe as extra energy provided by mid-level impulses move over the area, supporting elevated CAPE values and effective bulk shear. With all these ingredients coming together, Storm prediction Center has placed portions of our CWA in a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon. Main concern will be along the nature coast and the interior where sea breeze collisions are expected. Main threat will be for hail, damaging wind gusts and a possible tornado.

Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough moves east scraping across northern portions of the peninsula. A surface low with accompanying this short wave is expected to move over the area bringing another round of showers and storms. SPC has also marked areas mainly north of I4 as a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, Tuesday and portions of Levy county and areas northward, Wednesday.

Conditions begin to dry out Thursday into Friday as ridging tries to build back over the area. Temperatures remain on the above average side, with highs in the low to mid 90s more most areas.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 811 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail throughout the period with winds out of the SSE this morning and shifting to onshore this afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop by late afternoon and evening with mainly impacts to interior areas and away from terminals but have added VCTS to KLAL as brief restrictions will be possible. Some guidance also suggests that a line of storms may approach the Tampa Bay area terminals this evening but there is a lot of uncertainty on whether or not this activity holds together.

MARINE
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Pressure gradient tightens today allowing for increased SE winds that will turn onshore as the sea breeze develops. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move into northern waters beginning tonight with another round likely tomorrow into Wednesday.
Increased winds will also support increased wave heights.
Unfavorable marine conditions will likely last until the end of the week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

No major fire weather concerns through the week as RH values remain above critical levels. Shower and thunderstorms are expected to move over portions of the CWA beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 78 90 79 / 30 30 30 40 FMY 95 77 94 79 / 20 10 10 10 GIF 93 74 95 76 / 50 30 40 30 SRQ 93 77 91 77 / 20 10 20 30 BKV 94 70 93 73 / 40 30 50 50 SPG 90 80 89 80 / 20 20 30 40

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Englewood
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Mon -- 12:49 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:31 PM EDT     1.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Englewood, Lemon Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Boca Grande Pass
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Mon -- 12:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     1.87 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:01 AM EDT     0.75 knots Min Flood
Mon -- 11:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:37 PM EDT     1.47 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:36 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:31 PM EDT     -2.28 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Boca Grande Pass, Charlotte Harbor, Florida Current, knots

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