Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harbour Heights, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

An active weather pattern is in place across the Florida peninsula as a strong cold front approaches from the north. Ahead of the boundary, a humid and unstable airmass will be firmly in place, characterized by PWATs climbing again to 1.5"- 1.7". The humid air and diurnal heating will support the development of some pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms during the late morning and afternoon.

The primary concern for today will be the southward progression of a broken line of strong to severe storms. This line will enter the Nature Coast by the early afternoon, I-4 corridor/Metro Tampa Bay by the late afternoon, and SW FL by the early evening. From Metro Tampa Bay northward, mid-level lapse rates are favorable to support severe storms where as further south, lapse rates are more moist adiabatic which will lead to a gradual weakening of the line's intensity by the early evening. Additionally, we cannot rule out a low chance for a tornado. While 0-6km bulk shear approaching 50 kt is sufficient for storm organization, the tornado threat is low. Forecast hodographs appear largely unidirectional (slightly more curve in the far northern zones).
Any tornado threat would be largely tied to a quickly forming, low-end QLCS spin up.

Behind the front, a sharp temperature gradient will develop in the wake. Rapid cold air advection will cause temps to plummet after sunset. Around this time, we could see temps in the upper 40s in parts of Levy Co. and temps in the 70s in Lee Co. ahead of the front. Overnight lows early Tuesday will drop into the mid/upper 30s in the Nature Coast to upper 40s/lower 50s in SW FL. Winds will be high enough to prevent any frost across the north.

Temps will be noticeably colder and drier on Tuesday, with highs struggling to reach the 60s in some locations. Largely, afternoon highs will be contingent on the persistence of post-frontal cloud cover. There's a low chance of some frost early Wednesday morning in parts of inland Levy and Citrus Co. as temps again fall, and winds become calm. Temps will remain 5-10 degrees below normal through midweek before high pressure shifts off the east coast.
Expect conditions to moderate and temps returning to the low 80s by the weekend.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

A cold front will approach from the northwest and move across the TAF sites this later this afternoon and evening. Out ahead of this boundary some areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning, otherwise VFR conditions will continue until this afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms will precede the front causing MVFR/local IFR conditions as they shift south and east across the region this afternoon and evening. Gusty south winds at 15 to 20 knots with some higher gusts will develop by late morning then shift to southwest this afternoon. Strong gusty winds up to 35 knots, possibly higher, will accompany the convection this afternoon and evening. Behind the boundary winds will shift to northwest then north tonight at 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts.

MARINE
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

A cold front will move through the waters this afternoon and evening with increasing southerly winds and building seas ahead of it. Showers and a few thunderstorms will precede the boundary today into early tonight. Behind the front, strong high pressure will build into the area with northerly flow increasing to Small Craft Advisory levels into Tuesday. Winds veer to northeast by early Wednesday, but a moderate pressure gradient will keep elevated winds around 10-15 knots and seas around 2-4 feet over portions of the waters through most of the week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

A cold front will move through the region this afternoon and evening preceded by showers and thunderstorms. Strong high pressure will build into the region Tuesday bringing a much cooler drier airmass over the area with minimum relative humidity values falling below critical values across the Nature Coast. Moisture increases some for Wednesday and Thursday, but we could still see critical relative humidity values across the northern Nature Coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 82 48 62 47 / 80 20 0 0 FMY 85 55 67 52 / 70 60 10 10 GIF 84 47 63 47 / 80 30 0 0 SRQ 83 48 64 48 / 80 30 0 0 BKV 83 40 62 38 / 80 20 0 0 SPG 82 51 64 53 / 80 20 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk from this afternoon through Tuesday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.