Tuesday, August11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Buckhead Ridge, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 8:03PM Tuesday August 11, 2020 8:15 PM EDT (00:15 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 12:46PM Illumination 44% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ610 Lake Okeechobee- 305 Pm Edt Tue Aug 11 2020
Tonight..South winds 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday..East southeast winds 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth.
Thursday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Friday..East southeast winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Friday night..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Saturday..East winds 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth.
Sunday..East southeast winds 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 305 Pm Edt Tue Aug 11 2020
Synopsis.. A broad area of high pressure will continue to maintain light easterly surface winds and generally favorable boating conditions throughout the forecast period. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the atlantic waters during the overnight hours, becoming focused across the gulf waters during the late afternoon and early evening hours. The primary hazards with any showers and storms will be brief reductions to visibility in heavy downpours, strong wind gusts, and cloud to surface lightning.
Gulf stream hazards..Locally higher winds and waves in and around showers and Thunderstorms. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of aug 11, 2020 at 1200 utc... 11 nautical miles east northeast of fowey rocks. 14 nautical miles east northeast of port everglades. 16 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 21 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buckhead Ridge, FL
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location: 27.16, -81.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 112331 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 731 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020

Aviation (00Z TAFs).

Showers and storms from Lake Okeechobee southwest towards Naples should gradually dissipate this evening. Thereafter prevailing VFR with only small chances for east coast showers towards morning. VCTS 15-18z tomorrow for the eastern terminals as the sea breeze advances inland. Thereafter best storm chances are inland and towards the Gulf coast (including APF). Light and variable winds tonight shift ESE-SE tomorrow around 10 kt. The exception is APF where the Gulf Breeze should shift winds around from the SW around 18-19z.

Prev Discussion. /issued 345 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020/

Short Term (Now through Wednesday Night) . Convection has started to develop along the sea breeze across the western Atlantic suburbs this afternoon. The convection will continue to march inland along with the sea breeze over time through the afternoon. Additional convection is expected to develop with across the interior and Gulf Coast with some modest lifting with the weakness in place in the mid and upper levels. The 12z RAOB from MFL shows a good bit of dry air aloft and a DCAPE value in excess of 1000 J/kg this afternoon. Basically, a strong wind gust or two will be possible in the deeper convection.

Convection should begin to diminish overnight with most of the showers/storms migrating to offshore. Across the land zones another pleasant but muggy night can be expected. Wednesday looks about the same as the last few. Rain chances again increase by late morning for the western suburbs and then POPs migrate inland and toward the SW FL coast. Like today, the upper level trough in place across the peninsula will add just a little bit more enhancement to the usual diurnally driven convection.

Long Term .

Wednesday Night through Saturday .

Stout mid-level ridging will prevail over the western Atlantic as the ridge center remains near 30N-70W. Upstream troughing initially over the mid Mississippi Valley should sharpen while progressing into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Surface ridging will remain prominent from the western Atlantic through the northern Gulf of Mexico. With deep layer ridging in control this will result in a relaxed pressure gradient and light E-SE winds across South Florida. With weak large-scale forcing across the area the primary driver for convection will remain the sea breeze circulation patterns. Both sea breezes should develop given the light synoptic wind regime with a prevailing Atlantic breeze. This will focus the better shower and thunderstorm chances over inland areas including the Everglades, Lake Okeechobee region, and Gulf Coast during the afternoon and early evening hours. While a few showers and storms can't be ruled out across the east coast, coverage should generally be limited with timing confined to the morning/early afternoon hours before the sea breeze advances further inland and away from the area. Temperatures appear rather similar throughout the period with highs mostly in the 90s and lows in the 70s. Some western inland areas could even reach into the mid to upper 90s at times. While present indications are the heat index values should remain below advisory levels, readings of 100 to 107 degrees are likely each afternoon. Therefore caution is advised for those spending prolonged periods of time outdoors.

Sunday through Tuesday .

The aforementioned trough will advance into the eastern States as the mid-level ridge retracts back towards the western Atlantic. Weak surface ridging should remain across our area with troughing evolving offshore of the Carolinas. This will place South Florida in weak south to southeast steering flow with a gradual increase in moisture ahead of the trough. Some additional moisture is possible over the Bahamas as well owing to possible influence from a surface wave located somewhere in the vicinity. Didn't stray from the consensus blended PoPs, although some adjustment may be necessary depending upon how this pattern evolves. Seasonally warm temperatures should continue.

Marine . A broad area of high pressure will continue to maintain light to moderate easterly flow allowing for generally favorable marine conditions throughout the forecast period. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across the Atlantic waters during the overnight hours, becoming focused across the Gulf waters during the late afternoon and early evening hours. The primary hazards with any showers and storms will be brief reductions to visibility, strong wind gusts, and cloud-to-water lightning.

Aviation (18z Aviation) . Convection has started to develop over the western suburbs of the Atlantic metro. This activity will move west with time. APF looks to be most affected before convection diminishes around sunset or so. Otherwise, generally light easterly winds expected.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 92 77 91 78 / 20 10 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 91 79 90 80 / 20 10 30 20 Miami 92 78 91 79 / 20 10 30 30 Naples 93 76 93 76 / 60 30 50 30

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.

Marine . 28/Frye Short Term . 28/Frye Long Term/Aviation . 34/SPM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 67 mi81 min NNW 12 G 18 89°F 1016 hPa
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 68 mi75 min ESE 5.1 G 8.9 85°F 88°F1015.2 hPa (-0.0)
VENF1 - Venice, FL 72 mi135 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 80°F 90°F1015.1 hPa (-1.1)70°F

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Okeechobee County Airport, FL15 mi20 minW 710.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain73°F69°F89%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOBE

Wind History from OBE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE9SE7CalmNE15
G23
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE6N6CalmCalmCalmE5CalmE4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmN9
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Tide / Current Tables for North Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida
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North Fork
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:46 AM EDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:50 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:34 PM EDT     0.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.70.90.910.90.80.70.50.40.30.30.40.50.70.80.90.90.90.90.80.70.6

Tide / Current Tables for Stuart, St. Lucie River, Florida
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Stuart
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:31 AM EDT     0.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:52 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:19 PM EDT     0.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.