Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Buckhead Ridge, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 5:31PM Monday December 9, 2019 2:09 AM EST (07:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:55PMMoonset 4:26AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ610 Lake Okeechobee- 909 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Rest of tonight..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Monday..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth.
Monday night..East southeast winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Slight chance of sprinkles.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Wednesday..South winds 5 knots becoming east southeast in the evening. Lake waters smooth. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..East northeast winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Slight chance of light showers through the night.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of light showers in the morning, then chance of light showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of light showers in the evening.
Friday..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of light showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 909 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis..High pressure ridge will remain north of the south florida waters through the week with east to southeast winds that could become breezy at times particularly across the atlantic waters. Marine conditions are forecast to deteriorate late in the week as strong ridge of high pressure off the east coast generates swells that are forecast to start impacting the atlantic waters by Friday.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas are forecast to build above 7 feet particularly across the palm beach gulf stream waters by late this week. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 07, 2019 at 1200 utc... 9 nautical miles east of fowey rocks. 17 nautical miles east of port everglades. 15 nautical miles east northeast of lake worth. 17 nautical miles east southeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buckhead Ridge, FL
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location: 27.16, -81.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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FXUS62 KMFL 090611 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 111 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

Aviation. VFR expected to prevail during the next 24 hours at all terminals. Light ESE winds will increase to around 10kt after 14-15Z, except APF where sea breeze circulations will veer winds to the SW around 10kt in the afternoon.

Prev Discussion. /issued 851 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019/

Update . No significant changes to this evenings forecast update. Showers over Collier County are moving offshore and beginning to dissipate. Elsewhere, there is no significant weather, and conditions should be quiet for the remainder of the night. Skies are clearing, with the exception of a line coming into Broward County. This line may persist for a while, and could potentially produce a few sprinkles, but confidence is too low to mention in the forecast at this time.

Prev Discussion . /issued 620 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019/

Aviation . A few SHRA a moving off the Gulf coast this evening, afterwards, the weather should be mostly quiet through the night. Tomorrow, additional -SHRA are possible, but very uncertain as to timing and location, so no mention in TAF. Otherwise, no significant weather through the TAF period.

Update . The last bit of shower activity is moving through the Naples area this evening. With the loss of daytime heating, the area should be stabilizing and the weather should be quiet for the remainder of the night. The models are indicating there could be another round of light showers/sprinkles tomorrow, similar to today. Otherwise, no significant change to the forecast with this update.

Prev Discussion . /issued 249 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019/

Short Term .

The NWS Miami County Warning Area remains along the southern rim of a broad surface ridge -- centered well north of the forecast area across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region. The reinforcement of this surface ridge by midlevel subsidence -- upstream of a migratory wave -- has resulted in a peripheral, modest frontogenetic response across South Florida. Related ascent continues to phase with shallow low-level moisture in support of isolated westward- moving sprinkles this afternoon.

The mesoscale environment in proximity to the ongoing very light precipitation is similar to that across the remainder of South Florida. And, with the continued progression of very modest low- level ascent, the potential for isolated sprinkles may spread across the remainder of the region through late afternoon into the evening. Without stronger or deeper ascent, and without richer tropospheric moisture, measurable precipitation is highly unlikely. Nevertheless, a slight chance for sprinkles continues to be expanded across the forecast area through this evening.

Otherwise, easterly low-level flow will persist through tonight, with wind speeds decreasing over land in response to nocturnal decoupling. However, the decoupling process may be muted to some extent by mid/high-level cloud coverage, which will also restrict the magnitude of outgoing longwave radiation from the surface layer. This will create less-than-favorable conditions for fog development, though spotty/brief fog cannot be ruled out late tonight into early Monday morning over interior sections.

Through the day on Monday, low-level flow is forecast to turn more southeasterly, as the aforementioned surface ridge slowly shifts eastward over the open Atlantic waters, and surface cyclogenesis takes place over parts of the central CONUS downstream of a mobile midlevel trough. While these low-level mass responses should principally remain displaced well away from the local area, their peripheral influence over South Florida will be the aforementioned slight increase in the meridional component of low- level flow, and this should encourage an influx of richer low- level moisture.

Present indications are that the more notable increase in moisture should be focused later Monday into Monday night, accompanied by an increase in cloud coverage. By Monday afternoon and especially into Monday night, very light precipitation could develop -- principally focused over the east coast metro areas and vicinity. Given the lack of stronger low-level or deep ascent, and since richer moisture return should only exist within its onset phase through Monday night, measurable precipitation is unlikely. However, slight chances for sprinkles have been included -- especially over the eastern forecast area for Monday afternoon and night.

Very modest warm advection accompanying the increasing meridional low-level flow on Monday should foster comparatively warmer high temperatures -- i.e., into the lower and middle 80s. However, these forecast temperatures are accompanied by some uncertainty -- owing to the potential for cloud coverage.

Long Term . Tuesday begins with a 500mb ridge over the region, and a surface high over the western Atlantic. The 500mb ridge is be quashed to the south by a strong trough that is well to the north, over the Hudson Bay. At the surface, a low pressure system , north of Maine, has a cold front that sits along the northern periphery of the aforementioned surface high. This front stalls just off the eastern sea board, extending back to the west southwest, towards the central Texas Gulf coast. This creates a baroclinic zone that will come into play later in the week. However, for the time being, it keeps South Florida under a warm, fairly moist air mass, with PWATs sitting between 1 and 1.5 inches for the week. Fortunately, there is an overall lack of dynamic forcing over the region for most of the week. This may allow the area to return to a sea breeze influenced pattern by Wednesday, and possibly Thursday. This would allow for some shower activity over the area. The 500mb ridge should help to restrict any convective activity to just showers Wednesday and Thursday.

By Thursday, a 500mb shortwave crosses over the Southwest US, and emerges over the high plains of Texas. As it does, it closes off and deepens fairly quickly. The GFS and the ECMWF both show this, but differ on the location of the low, with the ECMWF much further south, over Mexico. Either way, as the low progresses eastward, it begins to interact with the baroclinic zone that was previously mentioned. This causes cyclogenesis over the north central Gulf. This new low will also be reinforced by a trough at 250mb, which shows a strong jet moving into the western US on Thursday, and quickly moving east through the end of the week. This jet and a 250mb trough, help to cause the 500mb trough to deepen for the end of the week. On the eastern side of this upper level trough, there is indication in the models of a much weaker subtropical jet merging with the polar jet. As it does, there is a weak, around 70kt jet that moves over Central Florida on Friday. This could bring the potential for some heavier showers, or maybe a few thunderstorms. Given the proximity to the CWA, and any shift to the south, a slight chance of thunderstorms is being introduced to the Lake region for Friday afternoon. With the axis of the mid and upper level troughs swinging through the area on Saturday, this may prompt future forecasts to include the mention of thunderstorms for Saturday as well.

Models show the cold front moving across the CWA Saturday night into Sunday. This could bring a line of showers ahead of the front. However, most of the stronger dynamics look to remain north of the area at this time. So, going along with the national Blend, have kept thunderstorms out of the forecast for the frontal passage. By Sunday the front should be east of the area. With the origin of the system being so far south, and the 500mb trough not having a high amplitude associated with it, there is no significant impact to the temperatures, and just a slight reduction in the dew points in the air mass that moves in behind the front.

So over all, a somewhat warmer and wetter pattern for the middle and end of the week, with a weak frontal passage over the weekend, with only a somewhat drier air mass replacing the air mass ahead of the front. A few thunderstorms may be possible in the Lake region on Friday afternoon, and may need to be introduced with the frontal passage late Saturday.

Marine .

Over the South Florida waters, east winds will continue to turn more southeasterly for the remainder of today into Monday, and will become breezy. Seas will build to 3-5 feet over the Atlantic waters through Monday -- with locally higher seas possible over the Gulf Stream. Isolated sprinkles will be possible at times through Monday night. Thereafter, through middle to latter parts of this week, the approach of a weather system from the west will correspond to a gradual increase in east to southeast winds. Deteriorating marine conditions could materialize by mid to late week, as winds and waves increase, while shower activity also has the potential to increase.

Beach Forecast .

The potential for sprinkles will persist for the Miami-Dade and Broward County beaches through this afternoon, with sprinkles possible over the east coast beaches Monday afternoon into Monday night. The increased onshore-flow component today for Palm Beach County warranted the introduction of a moderate rip current risk for the Palm Beach County beaches. For early to middle parts of this week, additional increases in onshore flow could foster increasing rip-current risk for all Atlantic beaches. Shower chances will also increase through the mid/late-week time frame.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs. West Palm Beach 80 69 82 69 / 10 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 80 72 82 72 / 10 20 10 10 Miami 81 71 83 71 / 10 20 10 10 Naples 81 66 83 67 / 0 0 0 10

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 67 mi76 min E 4.1 G 5.1 69°F 1020.5 hPa
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 68 mi52 min ESE 9.9 G 12 75°F 77°F1021 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 72 mi70 min E 6 G 7 68°F 69°F1020 hPa (-0.4)64°F

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Okeechobee County Airport, FL15 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair55°F53°F94%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOBE

Wind History from OBE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E6E5SE5E3E6CalmE3E4E3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmE3CalmNE4CalmCalmNE4NE3NE4NE3NE4CalmNE4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmS3SE5S5S6SW6S5CalmCalmCalmNE4CalmW3CalmW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for North Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida
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North Fork
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:12 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:23 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:54 AM EST     1.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:40 PM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:51 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:54 PM EST     1.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.30.20.30.40.70.91.11.21.110.90.70.60.50.50.60.80.91.11.11.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Stuart, St. Lucie River, Florida
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Stuart
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:14 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:22 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:39 AM EST     1.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:42 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:51 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:39 PM EST     1.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.40.30.20.20.40.60.91110.90.80.60.50.50.50.50.70.9110.90.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.