Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Buckhead Ridge, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:53PM Friday August 23, 2019 9:09 AM EDT (13:09 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 12:54PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ610 Lake Okeechobee- 344 Am Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Today..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 344 Am Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Synopsis..A tropical disturbance approaching the region will bring easterly winds across the region. Seas will be generally 2-3 feet with occasionally higher seas in the atlantic. Seas in the gulf will be generally 2 feet or less. Increased moisture across the area will lead to increased periods of showers and Thunderstorms across all south florida waters.gusty and erratic winds with locally higher seas are possible in and around any convection.
Gulf stream hazards..Lightning, gusty winds, locally higher seas, and waterspouts are possible with showers and Thunderstorms over the gulf stream. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of aug 22, 2019 at 1200 utc... 5 nautical miles east southeast of fowey rocks. 7 nautical miles east of port everglades. 4 nautical miles east of lake worth. 7 nautical miles northeast of jupiter inlet. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buckhead Ridge, FL
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location: 27.16, -81.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Miami-South Florida, FL
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Fxus62 kmfl 231140
afdmfl
area forecast discussion
national weather service miami fl
740 am edt Fri aug 23 2019

Aviation
There will be increased chances of showers across the south
florida terminals this morning as well as a few thunderstorms this
afternoon. Some of the showers and thunderstorms today could bring
brief periods of ifr. East to southeasterly flow will continue
throughout the day near 10 knots. At kapf, the wind flow will
shift around to the west northwest this afternoon as a gulf coast
sea breeze develops.

Prev discussion issued 409 am edt Fri aug 23 2019
discussion...

today and this weekend: the main feature impacting our weather
pattern today and into the weekend is an area of low pressure
that is currently located NW of andros island in the bahamas. The
disturbance will move northwestward towards the florida coast
today. There is plenty of uncertainty with the track and strength
of this system. The national hurricane center is giving this
system a 30% chance of development the next 48 hours and 60% the
next five days. Regardless if this disturbance develops, the
primary hazard for south florida the next few days will be periods
of heavy tropical rainfall with rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend. Heavy rainfall may lead to some
flooding in urban areas across the region.

Tropical moisture has already moved into the region. The latest
mfl sounding had a precipitable water value of 2.12 inches and
nassau had 2.27 inches. This area of tropical moisture will be
across the area at least through this weekend.

Global models are all over the place and not in good agreement
with how they handle this disturbance. Some of the models like the
ukmet and ECMWF bring this system close to the florida coast
keeping it a little stronger and then move it up the eastern
seaboard up offshore the carolinas. The interesting model is the
gfs. The GFS is a little weaker splits this low into two different
segments with the low level circulation continuing to move west
across the peninsula and the mid level portion moving up the
coast. Now which of these solutions turn out to be correct will
effect the rest of the weekend forecast.

So for today across south florida the increased tropical moisture
with the easterly flow will lead to tropical rains with high
rainfall rates. Increased rain chances will still be diurnally
driven, with periods or rounds of showers and storms. Heavy
rainfall may lead to minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage
areas. Now the threat is not just for the east coast. Hi-res
models have the gulf coast sea breeze developing this afternoon.

With easterly flow and storms moving across the peninsula there
is potential for a convergence boundary to develop over the west
coast. This may lead to slow storm motion and heavy rainfall for
the gulf coast as well. Therefore, the weather prediction center
has placed all of south florida under a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall for today.

The rest of the weekend is really dependent on the strength and
track of this low pressure system. If the ECMWF solution prevails
then we will stay on the western side of the system as it moves up
the coast with winds becoming more southerly southwesterly and
more of a dry slot with convection focused across northern
portions of the region. If the GFS solution prevails with the low
level center moving across the peninsula then the easterly wind
component will remain into the weekend. Ultimately the excessive
rainfall risk may be extended into the weekend depending on which
solution comes to fruition and how much rainfall is received on
Friday.

Early next week: plenty of lingering tropical moisture will still
be present once this disturbance lifts out of south florida.

Winds will become southerly to southwesterly to help focus the
majority of convection over the interior lake okeechobee region as
well as palm beach county.

Mid-late next week: a return to a typical summertime pattern by
mid next week. Atlantic high pressure will build across the
peninsula. Winds will be fairly light allowing for both the
atlantic and gulf seabreeze to develop. Most of the convection
should be driven by a combination of sea breeze and thunderstorm
boundary interactions and diurnal heating. Storm coverage is
expected to be greatest over the lake okeechobee interior region
as well as the gulf coast during this period.

Marine...

a tropical disturbance approaching the region will bring easterly
winds across the region. Seas will be generally 2-3 feet with
occasionally higher seas in the atlantic. Seas in the gulf will be
generally 2 feet or less. Increased moisture across the area will
lead to increased periods of showers and thunderstorms across all
south florida waters.Gusty and erratic winds with locally higher seas
are possible in and around any convection.

Aviation...

a tropical disturbance with a weak center of rotation located over
the bahamas, generally southeast of mia this morning, will bring
increased chances for +ra and possibly a few +ts this afternoon to
the entire area. Some of the convection may also bring some brief
ifr conditions across the area. As convection weakens tonight,
conditions should improve. Currently, the impact south florida
looks to be mainly increased chances of heavy rain over the next
few days.

Beach forecast...

there is a moderate risk of rip currents at all east coast beaches
today. An elevated risk of rip currents may linger for the next
day or so.

Preliminary point temps pops
West palm beach 89 77 90 77 60 50 60 30
fort lauderdale 89 78 90 79 70 50 60 40
miami 89 77 90 78 70 50 60 40
naples 90 76 90 78 60 30 50 40

Mfl watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 55 cwc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGCF1 - Big Carlos Pass, FL 67 mi75 min NNE 11 G 13 80°F 1015.9 hPa
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 68 mi51 min ENE 16 G 19 83°F 85°F1016.1 hPa
VENF1 - Venice, FL 72 mi69 min NNE 7 G 8 78°F 86°F1015.8 hPa (+0.9)76°F

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Okeechobee County Airport, FL15 mi74 minN 010.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOBE

Wind History from OBE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE4E3NE6NE7
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E7E5E4E5E3NE3Calm--Calm--CalmN3N3N3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmSE6SE6SE3SE3SE3E6SE6E7E5E3E3CalmNE3Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----Calm
2 days ago--SE10
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SE9SE4SE6S6SE8SE5--SE7E4E4Calm----------Calm--CalmCalmCalm--

Tide / Current Tables for North Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida
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North Fork
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:36 AM EDT     1.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 11:41 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:28 PM EDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.80.91110.80.70.50.40.30.30.40.60.80.91110.90.80.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Stuart, St. Lucie River, Florida
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Stuart
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:21 AM EDT     0.89 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 11:43 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:13 PM EDT     0.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Miami-South Florida, FL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.