Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 3:53 PM   Moonset 3:09 AM

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GMZ856 Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Englewood Fl Out 20 Nm- 900 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Rest of tonight - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Sunday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Monday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: north 2 feet at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Tuesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Wave detail: northeast 1 foot at 2 seconds and west 1 foot at 5 seconds, becoming northeast 1 foot at 2 seconds and northwest 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 900 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - Gusty sw winds this afternoon combined with persistent long period swells from the S gulf to keep seas elevated and choppy into Sunday. A frontal boundary will sag into the E gulf with scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms Sunday. Weak high pressure to build into the region with winds and seas slowly subsiding early to mid week.

FXUS62 KTBW 190057 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 857 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 833 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Storms from earlier this afternoon were not very impressive at least for our CWA, but strengthen as they moved east into our neighboring offices' area. On the other hand, another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms is possible on Sunday as upper level disturbance ans associated cold front attempt to move across the Peninsula. There is lot of uncertainty with the timing, but at this time, the highest chances should be mid morning and into the afternoon. The main concerns with these would be strong winds and some hail. In terms of temperatures, highs will range from the mid 8s to low 90s depending on where the showers develop.

Otherwise, no major changes were made to the forecast.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated for the next several hours before frontal boundary increases chances of showers and isolated storms early on Sunday. Models are not in great agreement in terms of timing, but most bring the aforementioned boundary across the peninsula through Sunday. A few CAMs bring a rounds of few showers ahead of the front around 09Z hence why a line was added to most terminals. Thereafter, uncertainty increases and it is difficult to pin point where exactly the showers will develop.
Going into the afternoon, and as the system gets closer chances for isolated thunderstorms increases, especially north of the I-4 corridor. This potential is now reflected on the TAFs. Overall, a challenging forecast, but conditions should improve through the evening hours as the boundary exits the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 86 75 89 / 40 70 30 30 FMY 78 92 76 91 / 30 60 40 60 GIF 75 88 72 91 / 40 70 30 40 SRQ 77 88 75 90 / 30 70 30 30 BKV 71 87 68 90 / 60 70 20 30 SPG 79 86 78 88 / 40 70 30 30


TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Shell Point
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Sat -- 12:57 AM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:56 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:46 PM EDT     1.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:44 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
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Shell Point, Peace River, Florida, Tide feet

Shell Point, Peace River, Charlotte Harbor, Florida, Tide feet

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