Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jensen Beach, FL
May 14, 2024 8:18 AM EDT (12:18 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:31 AM Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 11:23 AM Moonset 12:34 AM |
AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 402 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Today - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 9 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning. A chance of Thunderstorms early this afternoon. A chance of showers this afternoon. A chance of Thunderstorms late.
Tonight - South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 10 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 10 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 1 foot at 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Thursday - West winds around 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon and evening, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 3 seconds and east 1 foot at 6 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening, becoming south after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds and north 1 foot at 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
FXUS62 KMLB 141154 AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 754 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 749 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A weak warm front lifting through the area this morning is providing some occasional MVFR CIGs which should lift to VFR by 14-15Z.
Winds turn toward the SSW early today, gusting 15-25 KT by late morning. A complex of storms to our northwest should affect Daytona & Greater Orlando terminals from roughly 15Z-19Z. A few of the storms could contain gusts exceeding 35 KT. TEMPOs will likely be needed once the timing becomes a little more clear. A sea breeze will turn winds to the SE for most coastal terminals (perhaps DAB the exception) from mid/late afternoon through sunset. A few storms could also develop on the sea breeze early this evening at the coast, but confidence is even lower at that time. Additional rounds of showers and storms could affect the TAF sites after 15/09Z, especially Greater Orlando & Daytona.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Key Messages:
-Continued chances for storms through midweek. A few of the storms could be strong to severe, with the primary hazards being gusty winds and large hail.
-Trending drier into late week, with hot conditions expected to return area-wide.
-Rain chances rise into the weekend, but unseasonably hot and humid conditions continue.
Short-Term Synoptic Overview:
RAP streamline analysis initialized a remnant mesolow/MCV feature just offshore of Savannah, GA - associated with earlier convection.
A low-level jet segment extends from that feature down toward the Space Coast, but it is moving offshore. Shortwave ridging will quickly race across the state early today ahead of additional subtropical jetstream energy currently along the N Gulf Coast. The parent trough resides across the Red River Valley. Ahead of it, another mesoscale perturbation is expected to move across North Florida late this morning. The main trough axis will then move toward the Tennessee Valley tonight, and an additional impulse is progged to cross the state either late tonight or Wednesday. All of this is sliding just north of a very warm, deep-layer ridge (+2 to +3 sigma at H5) centered near the Cayman Islands.
Through at least the next 36 HR, many kinematic and thermodynamic values will be within rare territory for May, suggesting (but not guaranteeing) that severe weather continues to be a risk. H5 & H7 wind speed amplitudes will exceed the 90th percentile of climatology, and ensemble members indicate a low-level jet tonight at H85 which also could exceed the 90th percentile. In addition, a ribbon of mean integrated WV Transport (IVT) values exceeding the 99th percentile, and closing in on the maximum of the CFSR model climate, is forecast to move from N FL this afternoon to Central FL by Wednesday evening. This will be in concert with an approaching and weakening cold front sliding southward. ECMWF EFIs for CAPE- Shear (13/12Z) exceed 0.9 through Wednesday, signifying a very unusual convective parameter space for mid-May over much of Florida.
Finally, boundary layer temperatures will also exceed the 90th percentile, causing some heat impacts.
Sensible Weather & Impacts:
Today...
As you can probably tell from the overview, this is a very complex weather scenario for our area... posing multiple forecast challenges. The first wrinkle has already occurred tonight, as the MCV feature to our north caused a few gusts to around 40 MPH along the Cape. This wind energy is now pushing out to sea as shortwave ridging quickly traverses the state. Looking upstream, another well- defined MCS with embedded strong storms is pushing into the FL Panhandle and NE Gulf. A weak warm front is pushing north this morning ahead of this feature, evidenced by winds veering from SE to S. This band of storms will continue moving eastward, with HRRR members indicating areas near/north of Orlando to Titusville having the highest chance (40-60%) for late morning & early afternoon storms as the line approaches and likely begins to weaken. Some of these storms could contain gusty winds to 50-60 MPH and coin-sized hail. There is also a low, but non-zero, chance of a tornado in the line. SPC places a Slight severe risk (level 2 of 5) along and north of central Osceola Co to Cape Canaveral today and tonight. Closer to the mid-level ridge, a pronounced cap (H7 T's ~ +12C) is forecast to exist south of this area, lessening the chances for storms through mid-afternoon over the southern Space & Treasure Coasts.
Working conceptually, it would seem that a period of subsidence will follow the morning disturbance, leading to somewhat limited storm chances through the mid-late afternoon. Breezy southwest winds will feed very warm air northward, so areas that remain rain-free will become unseasonably hot. From Orlando southward, we are forecasting widespread mid 90s and maximum heat indices from 100 to 105F. Vero Beach and Ft Pierce could get very close to their daily records (95F).
Uncertainty only grows from there. By late afternoon/early evening, a pinned sea breeze should form, especially from Cape Canaveral southward. Similar to yesterday, a few storms could develop on the sea breeze convergence zone, where broad southwest flow meets southeast winds off the Atlantic. Due to the aforementioned parameter space, if storms do manage to pop on the sea breeze they could quickly go severe with gusty winds, large hail, and a tornado or two possible. Admittedly, this is a low-confidence forecast that has potentially high impacts along our urbanized coastal corridor.
The SPC reflects this with a Marginal Risk for severe storms along the Space and Treasure Coasts. Our storm chances along the coast this evening range from 40-50%.
Tonight...
As the main trough enters the Tennessee Valley, the theta-E gradient and baroclinic zone will begin sagging toward our latitude, which could serve as a focus/track for storms from tonight into Wednesday.
This thermal and moisture gradient may be reinforced by outflow boundaries from earlier storms. Will maintain 20-40% storm chances overnight near and north of Osceola/Brevard counties, increasing to 40-60% north of I-4 before daybreak. The environment will be largely the same, so a few of these storms could also be strong to severe.
Lows will be quite warm, in the low/mid 70s.
Wednesday...A frontal boundary will exist across north FL early Wednesday and will slowly shift southward toward northern portions of east central FL. Convective development may already be ongoing just south of this boundary early in the morning across north FL or into areas near to north of the Orlando metro area, where some strong to isolated severe storms will already be possible. Rain chances continue to rise then through the day with higher coverage of showers and storms currently forecast across the area Wednesday, with PoPs rising to 60-70 percent in a band of deeper moisture (PW up to 1.8-2.0 inches) sliding southward across the area ahead of the front. Strong westerly flow will exist between 925-700mb, up to 30- 40 knots, and temps at 500mb cool to around -10 to -11C, which will continue the potential for strong to locally damaging winds and coin- sized hail with any stronger storms storms that form. A brief tornado or two can't be completely ruled either. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather across much of central FL.
W/SW winds will be breezy with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph, especially where some breaks in cloud cover can occur. Cloudier conditions across northern central Florida will keep highs in the mid to upper 80s, but across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast hot and muggy conditions expected to continue, with max temps reaching the low to mid 90s and peak heat index values closer to 100-106.
Thursday-Friday...Frontal boundary shifts southward into central FL with drier air building in north of this boundary. Currently have greatest shower/storm chances, around 30-50 percent near to south of a line from Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne, with PoPs 20 percent or less to the north. However, these rain chances may shift farther south, especially if the latest GFS solution holds, where PW values of an inch or less make it all the way south to Indian River and Osceola counties by the afternoon. Temps warm aloft to -8 to -9C and offshore flow begins to weaken, so isolated severe threat should diminish, but a strong storm or two may still be possible into the afternoon on Thursday across southern portions of east central FL.
Front shifts back north of the area as a warm front by late week, and while moisture increases some, rain chances have trended lower to only around 20 percent for Friday as ridging begins to build in aloft.
With the decreasing rain chances into late week, temperatures will once again be on the rise across the entire area. It will be hotter than normal, with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values rising back to 98-103 on Friday. With drier air in place, lows on Thursday night may be able to fall back into the mid to upper 60s across much of the area, but milder overnight lows expected Friday night, ranging from the low to mid 70s.
Saturday-Monday...Deeper moisture continues to build back into the area during the weekend, as ridging aloft shifts east and mid/upper level S/W trough moves into the Southeast U.S. pushing another front toward the area on Sunday. This will increase rain chances to 30-50 percent on Saturday and 50 percent across all of east central FL on Sunday. Scattered showers and storms will develop, mainly during the afternoon and evening, with a few stronger storms again possible.
Hot conditions continue through the period, with highs into the 90s and humid conditions producing peak heat index values around 100-105 each afternoon. GFS shows a cleaner frontal passage by Monday, leading to a drier start to early next week, while ECMWF is wetter.
Will hold onto chance PoPs for Monday (30-50%), but there remains some uncertainty with the model differences this far out.
MARINE
Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Today-Tonight... Had to extend the Small Craft Advisory to the coast north of Sebastian Inlet through 8 AM as a wind surge affected the waters. These winds will lessen this morning to SSE 15 KT nearshore, and 15-20 KT offshore. Late this afternoon through tonight, winds are forecast to freshen again out over the Gulf Stream to S 20-25 KT, where the Small Craft Advisory will continue into the night.
Winds/seas could be greater in the vicinity of storms that could potentially move offshore around midday north of Cape Canaveral, and again along the Space/Treasure Coasts this evening. There is also a very low risk of a waterspout with today's storms. Seas 3-4 FT, increasing to 4-5 FT well offshore after midnight. Choppy for inshore boaters today.
Wednesday-Saturday...Poor boating conditions continue offshore for much of Wednesday into Wednesday night as W/SW winds remain up to 15- 20 knots. However, boating conditions then trend more favorable into late week as winds diminish and seas decrease. Seas will range from 3-5 feet on Wednesday, to 2-4 feet Thursday and 1-2 feet on Friday.
S/SW winds on Saturday increase up to 10-15 knots, becoming S/SE into the afternoon. Seas will continue increase slightly to 2-3 feet.
Scattered to numerous offshore moving storms will be possible on Wednesday, with some strong to isolated severe storms possible. Rain chances then decrease into late week, with only isolated offshore moving storms possible, mainly south of Sebastian Inlet on Thursday, then only a slight chance for offshore moving storms along the entire east coast on Friday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Today-Tonight... Gusty south-southwest winds (10-15, G20-25 mph) are forecast today for much of the district, potentially turning to the SE along the coast late in the afternoon. Despite relatively muggy conditions, unusually hot temperatures will allow RH readings to fall to 40-45% over the Kissimmee Basin this afternoon. RH readings will be higher elsewhere. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast, with coverage highest north of Orlando-Titusville late this morning/early afternoon. A few additional storms could develop along the coast early this evening. Gusty/erratic winds will accompany the stronger storms that form today.
Wednesday-Friday...Higher coverage of showers and storms, some strong to severe will occur across the area Wednesday. Higher moisture fueling these storms ahead of an approaching front will keep min RH values above critical values, but will also produce breezy W/SW winds. Front shifts southward into the area with drier air building into the region Thursday. This will lead to min RH values falling into the mid 30s to low 40s over much of the interior Thursday afternoon. This will lead to more fire sensitive conditions on this day, especially with westerly flow close to 15 mph.
Some moisture recovery expected into Friday, but Min RH values will still fall to the low to mid 40s over the interior. SW winds will be lighter around 5-10 mph, with sea breeze forming and pushing inland switching winds to the E/SE to around 10 mph.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 90 72 87 70 / 60 50 70 10 MCO 94 74 89 73 / 40 40 70 30 MLB 92 74 90 73 / 50 50 70 40 VRB 94 74 95 72 / 50 50 70 40 LEE 90 75 86 72 / 60 60 70 20 SFB 92 75 88 72 / 50 50 70 20 ORL 93 75 89 73 / 50 40 70 20 FPR 94 73 95 71 / 50 50 70 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-552.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570-572-575.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 754 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 749 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A weak warm front lifting through the area this morning is providing some occasional MVFR CIGs which should lift to VFR by 14-15Z.
Winds turn toward the SSW early today, gusting 15-25 KT by late morning. A complex of storms to our northwest should affect Daytona & Greater Orlando terminals from roughly 15Z-19Z. A few of the storms could contain gusts exceeding 35 KT. TEMPOs will likely be needed once the timing becomes a little more clear. A sea breeze will turn winds to the SE for most coastal terminals (perhaps DAB the exception) from mid/late afternoon through sunset. A few storms could also develop on the sea breeze early this evening at the coast, but confidence is even lower at that time. Additional rounds of showers and storms could affect the TAF sites after 15/09Z, especially Greater Orlando & Daytona.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Key Messages:
-Continued chances for storms through midweek. A few of the storms could be strong to severe, with the primary hazards being gusty winds and large hail.
-Trending drier into late week, with hot conditions expected to return area-wide.
-Rain chances rise into the weekend, but unseasonably hot and humid conditions continue.
Short-Term Synoptic Overview:
RAP streamline analysis initialized a remnant mesolow/MCV feature just offshore of Savannah, GA - associated with earlier convection.
A low-level jet segment extends from that feature down toward the Space Coast, but it is moving offshore. Shortwave ridging will quickly race across the state early today ahead of additional subtropical jetstream energy currently along the N Gulf Coast. The parent trough resides across the Red River Valley. Ahead of it, another mesoscale perturbation is expected to move across North Florida late this morning. The main trough axis will then move toward the Tennessee Valley tonight, and an additional impulse is progged to cross the state either late tonight or Wednesday. All of this is sliding just north of a very warm, deep-layer ridge (+2 to +3 sigma at H5) centered near the Cayman Islands.
Through at least the next 36 HR, many kinematic and thermodynamic values will be within rare territory for May, suggesting (but not guaranteeing) that severe weather continues to be a risk. H5 & H7 wind speed amplitudes will exceed the 90th percentile of climatology, and ensemble members indicate a low-level jet tonight at H85 which also could exceed the 90th percentile. In addition, a ribbon of mean integrated WV Transport (IVT) values exceeding the 99th percentile, and closing in on the maximum of the CFSR model climate, is forecast to move from N FL this afternoon to Central FL by Wednesday evening. This will be in concert with an approaching and weakening cold front sliding southward. ECMWF EFIs for CAPE- Shear (13/12Z) exceed 0.9 through Wednesday, signifying a very unusual convective parameter space for mid-May over much of Florida.
Finally, boundary layer temperatures will also exceed the 90th percentile, causing some heat impacts.
Sensible Weather & Impacts:
Today...
As you can probably tell from the overview, this is a very complex weather scenario for our area... posing multiple forecast challenges. The first wrinkle has already occurred tonight, as the MCV feature to our north caused a few gusts to around 40 MPH along the Cape. This wind energy is now pushing out to sea as shortwave ridging quickly traverses the state. Looking upstream, another well- defined MCS with embedded strong storms is pushing into the FL Panhandle and NE Gulf. A weak warm front is pushing north this morning ahead of this feature, evidenced by winds veering from SE to S. This band of storms will continue moving eastward, with HRRR members indicating areas near/north of Orlando to Titusville having the highest chance (40-60%) for late morning & early afternoon storms as the line approaches and likely begins to weaken. Some of these storms could contain gusty winds to 50-60 MPH and coin-sized hail. There is also a low, but non-zero, chance of a tornado in the line. SPC places a Slight severe risk (level 2 of 5) along and north of central Osceola Co to Cape Canaveral today and tonight. Closer to the mid-level ridge, a pronounced cap (H7 T's ~ +12C) is forecast to exist south of this area, lessening the chances for storms through mid-afternoon over the southern Space & Treasure Coasts.
Working conceptually, it would seem that a period of subsidence will follow the morning disturbance, leading to somewhat limited storm chances through the mid-late afternoon. Breezy southwest winds will feed very warm air northward, so areas that remain rain-free will become unseasonably hot. From Orlando southward, we are forecasting widespread mid 90s and maximum heat indices from 100 to 105F. Vero Beach and Ft Pierce could get very close to their daily records (95F).
Uncertainty only grows from there. By late afternoon/early evening, a pinned sea breeze should form, especially from Cape Canaveral southward. Similar to yesterday, a few storms could develop on the sea breeze convergence zone, where broad southwest flow meets southeast winds off the Atlantic. Due to the aforementioned parameter space, if storms do manage to pop on the sea breeze they could quickly go severe with gusty winds, large hail, and a tornado or two possible. Admittedly, this is a low-confidence forecast that has potentially high impacts along our urbanized coastal corridor.
The SPC reflects this with a Marginal Risk for severe storms along the Space and Treasure Coasts. Our storm chances along the coast this evening range from 40-50%.
Tonight...
As the main trough enters the Tennessee Valley, the theta-E gradient and baroclinic zone will begin sagging toward our latitude, which could serve as a focus/track for storms from tonight into Wednesday.
This thermal and moisture gradient may be reinforced by outflow boundaries from earlier storms. Will maintain 20-40% storm chances overnight near and north of Osceola/Brevard counties, increasing to 40-60% north of I-4 before daybreak. The environment will be largely the same, so a few of these storms could also be strong to severe.
Lows will be quite warm, in the low/mid 70s.
Wednesday...A frontal boundary will exist across north FL early Wednesday and will slowly shift southward toward northern portions of east central FL. Convective development may already be ongoing just south of this boundary early in the morning across north FL or into areas near to north of the Orlando metro area, where some strong to isolated severe storms will already be possible. Rain chances continue to rise then through the day with higher coverage of showers and storms currently forecast across the area Wednesday, with PoPs rising to 60-70 percent in a band of deeper moisture (PW up to 1.8-2.0 inches) sliding southward across the area ahead of the front. Strong westerly flow will exist between 925-700mb, up to 30- 40 knots, and temps at 500mb cool to around -10 to -11C, which will continue the potential for strong to locally damaging winds and coin- sized hail with any stronger storms storms that form. A brief tornado or two can't be completely ruled either. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather across much of central FL.
W/SW winds will be breezy with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph, especially where some breaks in cloud cover can occur. Cloudier conditions across northern central Florida will keep highs in the mid to upper 80s, but across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast hot and muggy conditions expected to continue, with max temps reaching the low to mid 90s and peak heat index values closer to 100-106.
Thursday-Friday...Frontal boundary shifts southward into central FL with drier air building in north of this boundary. Currently have greatest shower/storm chances, around 30-50 percent near to south of a line from Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne, with PoPs 20 percent or less to the north. However, these rain chances may shift farther south, especially if the latest GFS solution holds, where PW values of an inch or less make it all the way south to Indian River and Osceola counties by the afternoon. Temps warm aloft to -8 to -9C and offshore flow begins to weaken, so isolated severe threat should diminish, but a strong storm or two may still be possible into the afternoon on Thursday across southern portions of east central FL.
Front shifts back north of the area as a warm front by late week, and while moisture increases some, rain chances have trended lower to only around 20 percent for Friday as ridging begins to build in aloft.
With the decreasing rain chances into late week, temperatures will once again be on the rise across the entire area. It will be hotter than normal, with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values rising back to 98-103 on Friday. With drier air in place, lows on Thursday night may be able to fall back into the mid to upper 60s across much of the area, but milder overnight lows expected Friday night, ranging from the low to mid 70s.
Saturday-Monday...Deeper moisture continues to build back into the area during the weekend, as ridging aloft shifts east and mid/upper level S/W trough moves into the Southeast U.S. pushing another front toward the area on Sunday. This will increase rain chances to 30-50 percent on Saturday and 50 percent across all of east central FL on Sunday. Scattered showers and storms will develop, mainly during the afternoon and evening, with a few stronger storms again possible.
Hot conditions continue through the period, with highs into the 90s and humid conditions producing peak heat index values around 100-105 each afternoon. GFS shows a cleaner frontal passage by Monday, leading to a drier start to early next week, while ECMWF is wetter.
Will hold onto chance PoPs for Monday (30-50%), but there remains some uncertainty with the model differences this far out.
MARINE
Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Today-Tonight... Had to extend the Small Craft Advisory to the coast north of Sebastian Inlet through 8 AM as a wind surge affected the waters. These winds will lessen this morning to SSE 15 KT nearshore, and 15-20 KT offshore. Late this afternoon through tonight, winds are forecast to freshen again out over the Gulf Stream to S 20-25 KT, where the Small Craft Advisory will continue into the night.
Winds/seas could be greater in the vicinity of storms that could potentially move offshore around midday north of Cape Canaveral, and again along the Space/Treasure Coasts this evening. There is also a very low risk of a waterspout with today's storms. Seas 3-4 FT, increasing to 4-5 FT well offshore after midnight. Choppy for inshore boaters today.
Wednesday-Saturday...Poor boating conditions continue offshore for much of Wednesday into Wednesday night as W/SW winds remain up to 15- 20 knots. However, boating conditions then trend more favorable into late week as winds diminish and seas decrease. Seas will range from 3-5 feet on Wednesday, to 2-4 feet Thursday and 1-2 feet on Friday.
S/SW winds on Saturday increase up to 10-15 knots, becoming S/SE into the afternoon. Seas will continue increase slightly to 2-3 feet.
Scattered to numerous offshore moving storms will be possible on Wednesday, with some strong to isolated severe storms possible. Rain chances then decrease into late week, with only isolated offshore moving storms possible, mainly south of Sebastian Inlet on Thursday, then only a slight chance for offshore moving storms along the entire east coast on Friday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Today-Tonight... Gusty south-southwest winds (10-15, G20-25 mph) are forecast today for much of the district, potentially turning to the SE along the coast late in the afternoon. Despite relatively muggy conditions, unusually hot temperatures will allow RH readings to fall to 40-45% over the Kissimmee Basin this afternoon. RH readings will be higher elsewhere. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast, with coverage highest north of Orlando-Titusville late this morning/early afternoon. A few additional storms could develop along the coast early this evening. Gusty/erratic winds will accompany the stronger storms that form today.
Wednesday-Friday...Higher coverage of showers and storms, some strong to severe will occur across the area Wednesday. Higher moisture fueling these storms ahead of an approaching front will keep min RH values above critical values, but will also produce breezy W/SW winds. Front shifts southward into the area with drier air building into the region Thursday. This will lead to min RH values falling into the mid 30s to low 40s over much of the interior Thursday afternoon. This will lead to more fire sensitive conditions on this day, especially with westerly flow close to 15 mph.
Some moisture recovery expected into Friday, but Min RH values will still fall to the low to mid 40s over the interior. SW winds will be lighter around 5-10 mph, with sea breeze forming and pushing inland switching winds to the E/SE to around 10 mph.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 90 72 87 70 / 60 50 70 10 MCO 94 74 89 73 / 40 40 70 30 MLB 92 74 90 73 / 50 50 70 40 VRB 94 74 95 72 / 50 50 70 40 LEE 90 75 86 72 / 60 60 70 20 SFB 92 75 88 72 / 50 50 70 20 ORL 93 75 89 73 / 50 40 70 20 FPR 94 73 95 71 / 50 50 70 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-552.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570-572-575.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) | 22 mi | 53 min | 77°F | 4 ft | ||||
| SIPF1 | 44 mi | 49 min | 8.9 | 78°F | 78°F | 29.85 | ||
| LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL | 45 mi | 61 min | S 19G | 82°F | 82°F | 29.93 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSUA WITHAM FIELD,FL | 4 sm | 31 min | S 09 | 6 sm | Clear | Mist | 81°F | 77°F | 89% | 29.90 |
| KFPR TREASURE COAST INTL,FL | 19 sm | 25 min | S 09 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 81°F | 73°F | 79% | 29.90 |
Jensen Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:33 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:30 AM EDT 1.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:14 AM EDT 0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:22 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 04:47 PM EDT 0.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:28 PM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:33 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:30 AM EDT 1.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 11:14 AM EDT 0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:22 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 04:47 PM EDT 0.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:28 PM EDT 0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Jensen Beach, Indian River, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 0.7 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Seminole Shores
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:13 AM EDT 2.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:33 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:36 AM EDT 0.62 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:21 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 01:30 PM EDT 2.49 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:50 PM EDT 0.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:13 AM EDT 2.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:33 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:36 AM EDT 0.62 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:21 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 01:30 PM EDT 2.49 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:50 PM EDT 0.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Seminole Shores, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.6 |
| 1 am |
| 2.8 |
| 2 am |
| 2.8 |
| 3 am |
| 2.4 |
| 4 am |
| 1.9 |
| 5 am |
| 1.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 1.3 |
| 11 am |
| 1.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.6 |
Melbourne, FL,
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