Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North River Shores, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:17PM Thursday February 20, 2020 5:21 AM EST (10:21 UTC) Moonrise 5:01AMMoonset 3:44PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 356 Am Est Thu Feb 20 2020
.gale warning in effect from Friday morning through late Friday night...
Today..South to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Friday..North winds 20 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to gale force in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Very rough on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..North winds 25 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to gale force diminishing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 11 to 15 feet. Very rough on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 10 to 13 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 8 to 11 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 356 Am Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis..A weak surface trough across central florida and the adjacent atlantic this morning will lift north today. Strong high pressure to the north will build over the local atlantic waters tonight through Friday night and produce a surge of north winds with frequent gusts to gale force. High pressure will push east across the western atlantic this weekend and weaken, allowing winds to gradually decrease but seas will be slower to subside.
Gulf stream hazards..None today. North winds increase 20 to 25 knots this evening building seas 6 to 8 feet overnight. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday, february 17th. 41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North River Shores, FL
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location: 27.24, -80.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 200952 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 452 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

DISCUSSION.

. Significant High Seas/High Surf Event Friday-Saturday .

Today . The weak frontal trough that pushed into the area yesterday and stalled across our southern FA will lift back to the north. South to southwest flow will spread northward behind the retreating boundary placing more of the area in the warm sector. Near record high temperatures are expected at Melbourne, Vero Beach and Fort Pierce with mid 80s. Scattered showers will accompany the retreating boundary with best chance Osceola/Brevard northward. Prospect for thunder is low but model soundings show some mid level cooling during the afternoon across the north which will erode an inversion aloft. So have added a slight chance for thunder Osceola/Brevard northward during the mid to late aftn.

Low pressure will develop offshore the Carolina coast this afternoon along the old boundary and deepen pretty quickly this evening. This will shove a cold front across the area this evening with north winds, low clouds spreading south across the area. Cooler min temperatures in the lower 50s across the north but holding in the low to mid 60s along the Space and Treasure coasts.

Fri . Cloudy, cool and windy conditions expected behind the cold front into Friday. Tight pressure gradient between front to the south and strong high pressure centered over the central U.S. will produce a strong northerly flow over the area. Wind speeds around 20 to 25 mph will gust to 30 to 35 mph across much of the area, and up to 35 to 40 mph along the immediate coast/barrier islands. A Wind Advisory looks all but certain for the coast, and may even be needed for portions of the interior for these very gusty conditions.

Areas of light rain expected into the morning hours across the area, then as drier air continues to work in behind the front, rain chances will mostly be limited to scattered showers over the waters continuing to brush along the coast. Cooler air and cloudy skies will limit temperatures to the 50s near to north of Orlando and to 60s farther south into Friday. It will turn even colder into Friday night with lows in the 40s across the interior and Volusia County, with min temps in the 50s across Brevard County and the Treasure Coast as low level flow veers slightly more onshore.

Sat-Sun . High pressure settles across the Southeast U.S. into the weekend, with winds gradually decreasing as they veer to the northeast into Saturday and east on Sunday. However, it will still be breezy, especially along the coast on Saturday. Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers along the coast will still be possible to start the weekend, but then drier conditions expected into Sunday. Highs will still be cooler than normal, in the mid to upper 60s Saturday, except around 70 degrees across the southern Treasure Coast. Then as onshore flow persists into late weekend, temps will be closer to normal in the low to mid 70s.

Mon-Thu . High pressure shifts offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast by early next week, with another cold front quickly approaching and moving through the Southeast United States. This will continue to veer flow to the southeast to south, with moisture and rain chances gradually increasing through Monday and Tuesday and temperatures continuing a warming trend across the area. Highs forecast to reach the mid to upper 70s on Monday and upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday. Some timing differences in frontal passage and overall rainfall amounts still exist between latest GFS and ECWMF model runs. However, best rain chances look to occur toward mid-week with the frontal passage, and then cooler than normal conditions returning for Thu-Fri.

AVIATION. IFR/LIFR CIGs MCO/SFB/DAB/LEE through 13-14Z, gradually lifting to VFR by 17Z at DAB/LEE as weak boundary lifts north of the area. South to southwest flow will spread northward as boundary retreats. North winds will increase this evening and overnight as cold front pushes across the area. Prevailing IFR/LIFR CIGs are possible beginning 02Z-04Z across the northern terminals, spreading southward by 06Z at VRB/FPR.

MARINE. Today . Weak boundary appears draped ENE-WSW between NOAA buoys 009 and 010 and across Sebastian Inlet or so resulting in a N/NE flow to the north and E/SE flow to the south. This boundary will lift northward today and southerly flow will increase 10-14 knots across the southern then central waters with scattered showers. Seas 2 ft over the southern (treasure coast) waters and 4-5 ft offshore Volusia waters.

Tonight . Low pressure will develop offshore the Carolina coast late this afternoon and push a cold front across the waters this evening. This will be accompanied by a surge of north winds 20-25 knots this evening and overnight so have raised a Small Craft Advisory for most of the marine area except nearshore Treasure coast where a Caution should suffice (initially). A secondary surge assocd with a strong high pressure building over the area will overspread the northern/central waters late tonight and this requires a Gale warning for both nearshore and offshore waters for frequent gusts to Gale force (34 knots). Gale Warning goes into effect at 3 am north of Sebastian Inlet.

Fri . Strong northerly wind surge as high as 25-30 knots will build southward across the waters behind the cold front. Winds will frequently gust to gale force, with seas rapidly building to 8-12ft near shore and up to 14-16ft offshore from Friday into Friday evening. A Gale Warning across the waters of Volusia and Brevard counties early Friday morning will expand southward, south of Sebastian Inlet, by mid morning for these dangerous boating conditions.

Sat-Sun . Boating conditions will remain hazardous through the weekend. Winds will veer to the northeast Saturday and to the east on Sunday, with winds speeds gradually decreasing as pressure gradient relaxes. Wind speeds will drop from around 15-20 knots Saturday to 10-15 knots over much of the waters on Sunday. However, seas will be very slow to subside, with large wave heights up to 10- 15 feet away from the coast Saturday, diminishing to 7-9 feet on Sunday.

Mon . Winds veer to the southeast into early next week with winds remaining around 10-15 knots. Seas will continue to decrease, but wave heights up to 6 feet over the Gulf Stream will continue to produce poor boating conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 79 52 58 47 / 50 60 40 20 MCO 84 54 60 46 / 40 30 30 10 MLB 86 60 65 54 / 40 20 50 30 VRB 85 61 68 56 / 30 20 50 40 LEE 82 50 58 41 / 40 40 20 10 SFB 82 52 58 46 / 50 50 30 10 ORL 84 54 60 46 / 40 40 30 10 FPR 85 62 68 57 / 30 20 50 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Friday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm- Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm- Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm- Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM EST Saturday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

Gale Warning from 10 AM Friday to 3 AM EST Saturday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.



SHORT TERM . Kelly LONG TERM . Weitlich


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 22 mi22 min 75°F2 ft
SIPF1 44 mi37 min N 1.9 71°F 71°F1020 hPa
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 46 mi52 min 77°F 78°F1017.7 hPa
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 79 mi22 min SE 5.1 G 6 75°F 1019.1 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Witham Field Airport, FL6 mi27 minN 07.00 miFair68°F66°F94%1019.3 hPa
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County International Airport, FL18 mi29 minN 00.75 miFog/Mist68°F66°F96%1018.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUA

Wind History from SUA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalm3S4S4SE7E10E10SE10SE9SE9SE7SE5SE5SE5SE5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day ago--SE5SE5SE8SE13SE13SE10
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2 days agoCalmCalm33333E5E7E8--E8SE6SE6SE5Calm--CalmSE3CalmCalm------

Tide / Current Tables for North Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida
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North Fork
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:15 AM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:01 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:02 AM EST     0.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:44 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:51 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:16 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:07 PM EST     0.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.10.40.70.910.90.80.60.40.30.10.10.20.40.60.80.90.90.7

Tide / Current Tables for South Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida
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South Fork
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:19 AM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:06 AM EST     0.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:44 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:55 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:15 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:11 PM EST     0.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.100.30.60.80.90.90.80.60.40.30.10.10.20.40.60.80.90.80.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.